1. Benjamin Schenkel (bschenkel@fsu.edu) and Robert Hart 2012 AMS Annual Meeting Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science The Florida State University Quantifying the Environmental Memory of Tropical Cyclones: Lingering Footprint or Climate Amnesia? Research Sponsored by NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship and NSF Grant #ATM–0842618

2. Motivation Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCsBenjamin Schenkel and Robert HartThe Florida State University 2/9 Introduction Methodology Results

3. Motivation Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCsBenjamin Schenkel and Robert HartThe Florida State University 2/9 ??? How does the poleward movement of tropical cyclones (TCs) impact the large scale circulation? Introduction Methodology Results

4. Questions Raised Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCsBenjamin Schenkel and Robert HartThe Florida State University 3/9 Credit: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/images/jetstream3.jpg Do TCs transport significant quantities of moisture and heat polewards? Is the strength of the Hadley Cell substantially modulated by TCs? Do TCs significantly modulate the strength of the jet streams? Do the impacts of recurving TCs extend far beyond the time scales of the TC itself? Cold/Dry: High Surface PressureWarm/Moist: Low Surface Pressure TC Warm/Moist TC Warm/Moist HL 51% of major TCs in the Western North Pacific recurve from the tropics into the mid-latitudes Introduction Methodology Results

5. Methodology Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCsBenjamin Schenkel and Robert HartThe Florida State University 4/9 Objective: To analyze the response of the atmospheric environment to TC passage Evaluation of mean environmental response will occur using four-dimensional storm-relative composites of raw variables, raw anomalies, and normalized anomalies for 14 days prior to 14 days after TC passage at 6 hr intervals Reanalysis: A past model simulation that assimilates historical observations providing the most likely atmospheric state at a given time (Thorne and Vose 2010) Composites are constructed using the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (Saha et al. 2011) for TCs in the historical record (e.g. best-track) with intensities of Saffir-Simpson category 3-5 in the Western North Pacific basin from 1982-2009 (N=257 TCs) Introduction Methodology Results

6. Evidence of Hadley Cell Modulation by TCs Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCsBenjamin Schenkel and Robert HartThe Florida State University 5/9 Large scale response of environment to TC passage similar to TC Yuri 8000 km by 2000 km response to TC passage Introduction Methodology Results

7. Evidence of Hadley Cell Modulation by TCs Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCsBenjamin Schenkel and Robert HartThe Florida State University 5/9 Large scale response of environment to TC passage similar to TC Yuri 8000 km by 2000 km response to TC passage Large scale response similar to TC Dale with significant anomalies through day 11 Statistically significant area 9000 km by 3000 km in composite domain Reduced need for the Hadley cell to do work Introduction Methodology Results

8. Modulation of Upper Level Jet Stream Circulations by TCs Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCsBenjamin Schenkel and Robert HartThe Florida State University 6/9 Large scale response of environment to TC passage similar to TC Yuri 8000 km by 2000 km response to TC passage Introduction Methodology Results Anomalous heat and moisture of upper level anticyclone of TC pushes tropopause upwards

9. Modulation of Upper Level Jet Stream Circulations by TCs Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCsBenjamin Schenkel and Robert HartThe Florida State University 6/9 Large scale response of environment to TC passage similar to TC Yuri 8000 km by 2000 km response to TC passage Introduction Methodology Results Strengthening and broadening of TEJ following TC passage TEJ Polar Jet

10. Modulation of Upper Level Jet Stream Circulations by TCs Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCsBenjamin Schenkel and Robert HartThe Florida State University 6/9 Large scale response of environment to TC passage similar to TC Yuri 8000 km by 2000 km response to TC passage Introduction Methodology Results Anomalous westerlies occur in core of polar jet TEJ Polar Jet Potential strengthening or weakening of jet streams depending on how far north TC moves

11. Quantifying Poleward Energy Transport by TCs Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCsBenjamin Schenkel and Robert HartThe Florida State University 7/9 Upwards of 33% increase in peak northward energy transport due to TC at time when contribution from extratropical cyclones is relatively small Strong increase in southward transport of energy away from tropics in region with relatively marginal climatological transport Transport of energy away from tropics and into mid- latitudes yields a reduction of over 3% in the local meridional energy gradient for two weeks following TC passage Introduction Methodology Results

12. Quantifying Poleward Energy Transport by TCs Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCsBenjamin Schenkel and Robert HartThe Florida State University 8/9 Introduction Methodology Results Majority of anomalous meridional energy transport is sensible heat and potential energy 0.1% 2.5% 21.7% 75.7% Percentage of total energy anomaly

13. Broader Implications Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCsBenjamin Schenkel and Robert HartThe Florida State University 9/9 Cold/Dry: High PressureWarm/Moist: Low Pressure TC Warmed/ Moistened/ Lower Pressure Cooled/ Dried/ Higher Pressure How long does the aggregate impact of all TCs from one season last? Weeks? Months? HL LH Introduction Methodology Results Energy Divergence Energy Convergence Modulation of the jet streams