1. 2014 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State University

2. CURRENT SITUATION

3. Thursday February 6, 2014 $/cwt. Boxed Beef – Choice $213.51 – Select $212.31 Fed Cattle (5-Mkt)$140.80 7/800 Steers (Okla Ave.)$165.55 4/500 Steers (Okla Ave.)$211.50

4. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

5. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

6. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

7. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

8. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

9. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

10. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

11. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

12. Boner Cow Price Annual, Oklahoma City 2014 -2016 forecast, Analysis by Derrell Peel

13. Replacement Heifers February, 2014 LocationWeightPricePer Head MT558$192.25$1073 SD578$185.50$1072 CO601$182.16$1095 NE618$219.26$1355 SD623$186.50$1162 NE639$200.00$1279 NE677$231.34$1566 IA714$179.00$1278 KS844$181.00$1528 OK900$157.25$1415

21. CATTLE INVENTORIES

22. U.S. Cattle Inventory 20132014% Change 1000 Head All Cattle and Calves8930087730-1.8 Beef Cows2929729042-0.9 Dairy Cows92189209-0.01 Beef Replacements53815471+1.7 Dairy Replacements45514539-0.25 Feeder Supply2543424739-2.7 Cattle on Feed1336412695-5.0 20122013 Calf Crop3427933930

23. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

24. Oklahoma Cattle Inventory 20132014% Change 1000 Head All Cattle and Calves42004300+2.4 Beef Cows17541805+2.9 Dairy Cows4645-2.2 Beef Replacements280325+16.1 Dairy Replacements20 0.0 Feeder Supply16351715+4.9 Cattle on Feed345265-23.2 20122013 Calf Crop1670 0.0

25. Oklahoma and U.S. Cattle Cycles: Beef Cow Inventory, January 1

26. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Calculations by Derrell Peel

29. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

30. Share of Cattle on Feed Texas and Oklahoma, 12 Month Moving Ave.

31. Share of Cattle on Feed Iowa and Nebraska, 12 Month Moving Ave.

32. January 1, 2014 1000 Head All Cattle and Calves Cattle on Feed 1 TX10,900 2 NE 6,150 3 KS 5,800 4 CA 5,250 5 OK 4,300 6 MO 3,800 8 IA 3,700 9 SD 3,650 10 WI 3,350 1/ 2 TX/NE 2,450 3 KS2,150 4 IA1,230 5 CO 990 6 CA 510 7 SD 310 8 MN 300 9 AZ 274 10 OK 265

33. January 1, 2014 1000 Head Beef Cows Beef Heifers 1 TX3,910 2 MO1,820 3 OK1,805 4 NE1,797 5 SD1,635 6 MT1,476 7 KS1,414 8 KY1,012 9 ND 943 10 IA 855 1 TX640 2 MT430 3 NE387 4 SD 330 5 OK325 6 MO305 7 MO270 8 KS240 9 WY175 10 ND 170

34. January 1, 2014 Feeder Supply Stocker Ratio 1TX2,960 2OK1,715 3KS1,690 4CA1,430 5MO1,380 6NE1,345 7SD1,135 8IA1,050 9WI 820 10MN 775 0.769 1.027 1.320 0.711 0.798 0.801 0.672 1.029 0.603 0.994 Stocker Ratio = Feeder Supply / Calf Crop U.S. Avg = 0.729

35. Regional Share of Feeder Supplies Outside of Feedlots, January 1

36. Southern Plains Feeder Share, January 1

38. Oklahoma Stocker Ratio, January 1

39. CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2013 TO JANUARY 2014 (1000 Head) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS U.S. Total: -255

40. CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2012 TO JANUARY 2013 (1000 Head) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS U.S. Total: -862

41. CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2011 TO JANUARY 2012 (1000 Head) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS U.S. Total: -967

42. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

43. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

44. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

45. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

47. Replacement Heifers Entering the Herd

48. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS and Calculation by Derrell Peel

49. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled by LMIC and Derrell Peel

50. Analysis by Derrell Peel Data Source: USDA-NASS Average: Heifer % = 17.1 Culling % = 9.7

51. Analysis by Derrell Peel Data Source: USDA-NASS

52. FEED AND FORAGE SITUATION

59. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC

60. PERCENT CHANGE DECEMBER 1 HAY STOCKS (2013-2012) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS U.S. Total: 17%

62. Other Hay Production Tons Per Beef Cow

63. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

64. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

65. CATTLE SLAUGHTER AND BEEF PRODUCTION

66. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

67. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

68. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

69. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

70. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

71. Commercial Beef Production Total Cattle Inventory Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

72. 2014 Meat Production and Consumption Production Consumption Per Capita Consumption Change 20132014 2013-2014 20142013-2104 Million lbs. %Retail Lbs.% Beef2569423971-6.753.2-5.7 Pork2316723559+1.746.5-0.2 Broilers3741238687+3.483.8+2.6

73. BEEF DEMAND

74. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

75. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

76. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

77. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

78. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

79. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

80. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

81. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

82. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

83. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

84. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

85. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

86. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statics & USDA-ERS

87. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

88. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

89. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

90. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

91. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

92. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

93. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

94. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

95. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

96. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statics & USDA-ERS

97. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

98. INTERNATIONAL TRADE

99. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

100. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

101. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

102. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

103. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

104. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

105. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

106. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

107. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

108. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

109. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

110. Price-Weight Relationship Medium/Large No. 1 Steers, 7 Mkt. Ave.

111. Steer Price, Total Value and Value of Gain January 24, 2014, 7 Mkt. Ave., Oklahoma Weight (lbs) Average Price ($/cwt.) Total Value ($/hd) VOG 400 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb.) VOG 450 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb VOG 500 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb.) VOG 550 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb.) VOG 600 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb.) VOG 650 lb. Beg. Weight ($/lb.) 400$231.29$925 450$223.03$1,004$1.57 500$212.70$1,063$1.38$1.20 550$201.87$1,110$1.23$1.07$0.94 600$190.39$1,142$1.09$0.92$0.79$0.64 650$180.02$1,170$0.98$0.83$0.71$0.60$0.56 700$173.48$1,214$0.96$0.84$0.75$0.69$0.72$0.88 750$168.79$1,266$0.97$0.87$0.81$0.78$0.82$0.96 800$165.13$1,321$0.99$0.91$0.86$0.84$0.89$1.01 850$161.19$1,370$0.99$0.92$0.88$0.87$0.91$1.00 900$157.45$1,417$0.98$0.92$0.88 $0.92$0.99

112. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

113. 2014 Beef Sector Outlook Beef Packers – Margin and volume challenges Feedlots – Margin and volume challenges Stocker/Backgrounding – Strong value of added feeder weight Cow-Calf – Record profits Focus on production and cost management – Rebuilding challenges

114. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC