1. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio David H. Bromwich 1,2 and Keith M. Hines 1 1 Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA 2 Department of Geography, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA Scientific Challenges: Arctic

2. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio How do we define the Arctic? North of the Arctic Circle? Arctic Ocean and nearby? 60 ° N

3. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Outline The Changing Arctic Shorter Timescales Longer Timescales Sea Ice Albedo Arctic System Reanalysis The Changing Arctic Shorter Timescales Longer Timescales Sea Ice Albedo Arctic System Reanalysis

4. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio The Changing Arctic We need to hit a moving target 1. Sea ice reductions 2. Thinning permafrost 3. Melting of land ice 4. Greening of the Arctic 5. Human aspects (Wall Street Journal Arcticle: Unfreezing Arctic Assets, Sept 18, 2010) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703440604575496261529207620.html

5. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio September ice extent from 1979 to 2007 shows an obvious decline. The September rate of sea ice decline since 1979 is now approximately 10 percent per decade, or 72,000 square kilometers (28,000 square miles) per year. press release from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) 1 October 2007 (http://www.nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20071001_pressrelease.html)

6. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Actual observations of September Arctic sea ice (red) show a more severe decline than any of the eighteen computer models (average, dashed line) that the 2007 IPCC reports reference. NSIDC Press Release: Models Underestimate Loss of Arctic Sea Ice 30 April 2007 Stroeve, J., M. M. Holland, W. Meier, T. Scambos, and M. Serreze, 2007: Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703

7. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Greenland Melt Extent 2005 Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) University of Colorado at Boulder, CO 80309-0216 http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005/ Greenland melt extent for 1992 and 2005 Total melt extent area that experiences 1+ melt day April – September. 2005 melt extent exceeds the previous 2002 record. (Steffen et al. 2004; Hanna et al. 2005)

8. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Permafrost distribution in the Arctic. Pink is continuous, blue is discontinuous, green is sporadic. [Romanovsky et. al., 2002, Fig. 1] Mean annual ground temperatures in Yakust, Siberia (62.1°N, 129.8°E), from 1833-2003. [From V. Romanovsky] Permafrost Melting in the Arctic? ( NOAA Arctic Change) http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/land-permafrost.shtml Mean annual ground temperatures at Fairbanks, Alaska, for 1930-2003. The temperature 1 meter below the surface has risen very close to 0°C. [From V. Romanovsky]

9. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio FIGURE 1. The vertical structure of the Arctic warming during the 1980s and 1990s, based on the ERA-40 reanalysis. Averaged temperature trends around latitude circles for 1979–2001 plotted versus latitude and height for the four seasons. ERA-40 NCEP JRA-25 Nature, 451, 53-56 (3 January 2008) doi:10.1038/nature06502 Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming Rune G. Graversen, Thorsten Mauritsen, Michael Tjernström, Erland Källén & Gunilla Svensson Disagreement between models on Arctic warming

10. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Data Distribution: (into initial conditions) Ocean areas are not well sampled. Many observations are at coastal sites. representative? Complex terrain Extreme environments IASOA AON High Resolution Shorter Timescales

11. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Atmospheric Data Assimilation Surface Observation Data for ASR

12. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Atmospheric Data Assimilation Upper-air Observation Data for ASR

13. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio noaa-15-amsua noaa-18-amsua metop-2-amsua Atmospheric Data Assimilation Satellite Observation Data for ASR

14. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio IASOA observatories Abisko (Sweden) Alert (Canada) Barrow (USA) Cherskii (Russia) Eureka (Canada) Ny-Ålesund (Norway) Pallas (Finland) Sodankylä (Finland) Summit (Greenland) Tiksi (Russia) The International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA)

15. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio “An Arctic Observing Network should be initiated using existing activities and with the flexibility and resources to expand and improve to satisfy current and future scientific and operational needs. In its initial phase, the network should monitor selected key variables consistently across the Arctic system.” “Work to design and implement an internationally coordinated Arctic Observing Network should begin immediately to take advantage of a unique window of opportunity created by a convergence of international activities during the International Polar Year that focus on observations.” The NRC report recognizes that AON must be based on long-term, coordinated, international resources and efforts that are dedicated to sustaining the network. It calls for a “system design assessment” as an early step, along with efforts to sustain existing observing capabilities. AON would be continuously improved and enhanced through user feedback and infusion of new technologies and understanding. It would include a data and information management system, and involve Arctic residents in a meaningful way. SEARCH Encourages an AON Development (NRC 2006 ”Toward an Integrated Arctic Observing Network”)

16. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Observed summer afternoon temperature increases inland in the Kuparuk Basin. Are Arctic coastal stations representative of a large area? July Diurnal 2-m Temperature Cycle

17. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Observations at Barrow, Alaska are extensively used Summer climate at Barrow is different than that at Atqasuk 100 km inland.

18. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Climate Modes NAO/AO Linkages to lower latitudes Surface categorizations Ice sheet – Greenland Ocean – Arctic Ocean – Sea Ice Tundra Boreal forest Coupled models Atmosphere Ocean Ice Land surface Longer Timescales

19. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio ERA-40 seasonal MSLP (hPa) for 1960–2005: (a) winter DJF and (b) summer JJA and seasonal mean 500 hPa geopotential height (m) for (c) winter and (d) summer. MSLP DJFMSLP JJA 500 hPa Z DJF500 hPa Z JJA NH Climatology Surface NH Climatology Mid-Troposphere

20. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio The leading varimax-rotated PC loadings of 500 hPa seasonal geopotential height anomalies constructed from ERA-40 for 1960–2005: DJF (a) RPC1; (b) RPC2 and (c) RPC3; for JJA (d) RPC1. The signs of the loadings are arbitrary. West Pacific Teleconnection RCP1 Pacific North America RCP2 RCP3 North Atlantic Oscillation RCP1

21. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

22. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio The Need for Coupled Modeling of the Arctic for Timescales Longer than the Synoptic Timescale The Arctic System Model

23. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Sea Ice Albedo Variability May June July AugustSeptember

24. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Temporal evolution of albedo Snow, leads, bare ice constant – ponds always changing

25. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 1. Dry snow: albedo of 0.85 assumed until melt. 2. Melting snow: fixed 15 day period - linearly decreasing albedo (0.80 to 0.71). 3. Pond formation: fixed 6 day period - linearly decreasing albedo (0.67 to 0.50). 4. Pond evolution: remainder of melt season - linearly decreasing albedo. 5. Fall freezeup: Albedo linearly increases to 0.85. Dry snowFall freezeupPond evolution Melting snow Pond formation 5 Phases - timing is critical – particularly onset of melt Perovich et al. (2007) 5-stage model

26. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Arctic System Reanalysis A physically-consistent integration of Arctic and other Northern Hemisphere data. Participants: Ohio State University - Byrd Polar Research Center (BPRC) - and Ohio Supercomputer Center (OSC) National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Universities of Colorado and Illinois. High resolution in space (10 km) and time (3 hours) - convenient for synoptic and mesoscale studies Begin with years 2000-2010 (Earth Observing System) Also Interested: NOAA (Also provided start-up funds) NASA U.S. Department of Energy

27. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Domain for ASR

28. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio ASR ERA Yearly Total 2007, Unit: cm Yearly Total 2008, Unit: cm Figure 11 ASR and ERA-Interim precipitation.

29. ASR Summary Big progress has been made. Earlier test months in 2007 and recent 2007-2008 run with 30 km resolution show results that look very encouraging. Testing is being finished with the assimilation, especially the nudging, physics, and land surface modeling/assimilation. Testing is ongoing with Polar WRF version 3.2.1 10 km production run should start soon.

30. WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Polar Prediction Workshop Oslo, Norway Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Scientific Challenges: Arctic Outline The Changing Arctic Shorter Timescales Longer Timescales Sea Ice Albedo Arctic System Reanalysis The Changing Arctic Shorter Timescales Longer Timescales Sea Ice Albedo Arctic System Reanalysis