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Spatial distribution of mature and old forest Dave Daust, Feb 25
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Mega-project Phase I Part 1: Uncertainty related to pattern Study 1 Study 1 Study 2 Study 2 Part 2: Feasibility and cost of Phase II Phase II: Measuring the distribution of mature and old forest
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Uncertainty related to pattern
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Outline 1. Landscape pattern 101 2. Current knowledge 3. The influence of harvest pattern on old forest pattern 4. The value of pattern for different species 5. Summary and recommendations
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inter-patch distance habitat patch unsuitable habitat Landscape pattern 101
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Habitat loss
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How useful is habitat
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Territories and dispersal
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Current knowledge Objective: attain a natural landscape pattern Risk % of natural patch-size class
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The influence of harvest pattern on old forest pattern: a comparison with natural
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Simulation Variables Disturbance rate Low 32% old Low 32% old High 11% old High 11% old Disturbance pattern Natural Natural 80 ha blocks ± greenup rules 80 ha blocks ± greenup rules Biodiversity guidebook blocks ± greenup rules Biodiversity guidebook blocks ± greenup rules
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32% old; natural disturbance32% old; guidebook logging Old forest
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11% old; natural disturbance11% old; guidebook logging Old forest
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Old forest area greatly influences patch size distribution Natural Disturbance
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Disturbance type influences patch size distribution Guidebook harvesting with greenup rulesNatural disturbance
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Conclusions Guidebook (“Natural”) harvesting patterns will not create natural old forest patterns Amount of old forest had the biggest influence on pattern Guidebook harvesting with greenup rules is the closest
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The value of pattern for different species: a summary of the Nadina Study
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Simulation Methods Disturbance Mountain pine beetle Mountain pine beetle Harvesting Harvesting Artificial landscapes Artificial landscapes Harvest pattern 80 ha blocks 80 ha blocks Large, variably-sized blocks Large, variably-sized blocks Habitat analysis for virtual animals Territories Territories Connectivity Connectivity
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Virtual animals Habitat affinity Territory size and dispersal range Territory plasticity (expansion)
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Results Variable “Population” response Old forest area Cutblock size - Old forest patch size on artificial landscape
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Artificial landscapes
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Conclusions Harvesting pattern does not influence old forest habitat use (under the range of conditions evaluated). Old forest pattern has some potential to influence habitat use
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Summary The current harvest pattern indicator is not appropriate because Guidebook harvesting patterns do not create natural old forest patterns Guidebook harvesting patterns do not create natural old forest patterns Harvesting patterns do not influence old forest habitat use Harvesting patterns do not influence old forest habitat use Old forest pattern has some potential to influence habitat use Habitat amount influences habitat use
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Recommendations Ignore pattern and rely on habitat amount or Use a pattern indicator that assesses old forest (and other seral stages) directly Continue to implement “guidebook” harvesting patterns
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Feasibility and cost of measuring the distribution of mature and old forest Dave Daust, Feb 25
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Why measure old forest? Recall past study amount amount of different old forest ecosystems (ecosystem representation)
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Different ecosystems Climate Topography Local soil conditions Disturbance Succession Site series Seral stages Chance
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Benefit/cost analysis TEM Benefit = accuracy
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Benefit/cost analysis Variant TEM Benefit = accuracy
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Benefit/cost analysis PEM Variant VRI TEM Benefit = accuracy
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Benefit/cost analysis PEM Updated VRI Variant VRI TEM Benefit = accuracy
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Benefit/cost analysis PEM Updated VRI Variant VRI TEM Cost = delay + $ for analysisBenefit = accuracy $ $ $ $ now > 2 yr $ > 5 yr ? never ?
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Methods Get the data Mess with it Do the analysis And write report
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Recommendation Use existing VRI (best benefit/cost ratio)
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Methods TaskDays Obtain spatial data for Babine Watershed - Clean up data and create a single “forest” coverage (map) - Define forested land, create seral stages and create site classes 0.5 Calculate seral stage distribution of each Variant- site combination 0.5 Prepare report 0.5 Prepare presentation and present to BWMT 0.5
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