1. Energy Policy PA 395 May 28, 2004 Gary Flomenhoft http://www.uvm.edu/~gflomenh/ENRG-POL-PA395/

2. The “OIL PEAK”

3. Source: Smil (1991)

4. 0 25 50 75 100 180018251850187519001925195019752000 Composition of U.S. Energy Use wood animal feed coal oil gas electricity Percent of total energy use

6. Energy Rate of Return

8. Fuel Domesticated Animals Labor Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970

9. The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation (after Hubbert, 1969) 0 -5 -4-3 -2 +1 +2+3 +4 +5 Iron in Middle East Stonehenge Built Parthenon completed Pyramids constructed Mayan culture Inquisition Black Death Magellan's Circumnavigation Steam Engine 100 200 300 Trillion kwh per year

10. Hubbert Oil Cycle

11. US Oil Extraction

12. Results- Various Countries Algeria (EUR=26.09 BBO) Mexico (EUR=65.0 BBO) Norway (EUR=35.2 BBO) Romania (EUR=7.3 BBO)

13. World Oil Extraction

16. Various National Patterns USA – E.g.. of a net consumer Venezuela – E.g. of a net producer High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenario

17. Various National Patterns Mexico– E.g.. of a country that switches over from net producer to net consumer in the future. U.A.E. – E.g. of a swing producer. High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenario

18. Forecasting Oil Production Source : US DOE (EIA), website. U = ~ 3000 (mean estimate of the USGS 2000). Peak Production = 2037

19. World Oil Extraction

21. World Oil Consumption

22. World Oil Flows

23. Julian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will yield more resourcesJulian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will yield more resources –“Drowning in oil” The Economist, March 6 th - 12 th 1999, pp. 23-25 Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oilColin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oil –“The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific American, March 1998, pp. 78-83 (Campbell and Laherrere) Two Views S. Gürcan Gülen, Ph.D.

24. Real Price of Oil since 1869

26. WORLD ENERGY

27. Oil Reserve/Production ratio

28. Oil Reserves

29. “Proven” oil reserves

30. Natural Gas Reserves

32. Coal Reserves

34. Hummer H1 Sticker price $106,185 Current law Equipment deduction $25,000 Total tax deduction* $60,722 Bush economic plan Equipment deduction $75,000 Total tax deduction* $88,722 * Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation. Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense Gas Hog Tax Credit

35. Cars per Thousand People Source: JustAuto.com “Today there are 670 million vehicles in the world. By 2050 that number is expected to increase to 4.5 billion or maybe more.” Thomas Gross, US DOE

37. China Energy use 1997

39. Source: EPA

40. Heinberg Chapter 1 How to gain an Energy Subsidy 1) Takeover 2) Tool Use 3) Specialization 4) Scope Enlargement 5) Drawdown

41. Takeover Biotic Potential / Competitive exclusion Use / divert: 40% Earth’s terrestrial NPP 25% Total NPP

42. Drawdown Deplete non-renewable stocks: Coal, oil, natural gas, uranium, minerals, etc. Dangers of Drawdown: Pollution Climate change Depletion

43. Complexity-diminishing returns

44. Complexity Increasing costs of: Maintaining organization and control Controlling conquered territory Taxation

45. American success Great natural resources Energy subsidies: slaves then fossil fuels Global trade

48. Other Extinct cultures Rapa Nui- (Easter Island) Mangaia Mangereva Pitcairn Henderson Exception: Tikopia