1. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 1 RESTRUCTURING GREECE A risk perspective RESTRUCTURING GREECE A risk perspective Presented by Dr David Hillson The Risk Doctor PMI Fellow, PMP

2. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 2 The future is uncertain How do you feel ? Uncertain = Dangerous

3. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 3 The future is uncertain How do you feel ? Uncertain = Challenging

4. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 4 We all know what “risk” means, right? WRONG !

5. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 5  Risk = Uncertainty True or False ? Risk = Uncertainty that matters (i.e. can affect objectives) What is risk? ≠

6. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 6 Risk connects uncertainty with objectives ISO 31000:2009 “The effect of uncertainty on objectives” What is risk? Risk includes both opportunities & threats “Effect is deviation from expected, positive or negative”

7. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 7 What is risk management? Early-warning system Forward-looking radar

8. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 8 Managing risk in projects Where are we now? Standards Professional bodies Body of knowledge Infrastructure

9. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 9 Managing risk in nations How is this relevant to restructuring Greece?

10. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 10 Three principles: 1.Greece faces uncertain future 2.Includes both threats and opportunities 3.Risk can be managed proactively Three prerequisites: 1.Define objectives at risk 2.Understand origins of risk 3.Right ownership of risk

11. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 11 Objectives at risk 1. Objectives at risk in restructuring Greece Protection Provision Persistence Public good Security Sustainability Stability Social harmony Respect the past Protect the present Secure the future

12. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 12 D A N G E R D ynamic A mbiguous N on-linear G local E mergent R elational The future is: Origins of risk 2. Origins of risk in restructuring Greece

13. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 13 Main challenge: Emergent risks Three characteristics: 1.Unexpected & unpredictable 2.Extreme impacts (positive or negative) 3.Appear obvious after occurrence Other names: “Unknowable-unknowns” “Ontological uncertainty” “Black Swans”

14. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 14 Recent examples

15. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 15 Effective risk strategies for emergent risks Proactive, preventative, protective Identify key vulnerabilities & blind-spots Improve surveillance: early-warning indicators Use risk-based decision-making processes Build in flexibility and resilience at all levels Develop risk-aware culture

16. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 16 Owners of risks 3. Owners of risks in restructuring Greece Responsibility = Scope of authority Government Societal leaders Business leaders Project leaders Identify & manage risks within own scope Minimise threats Maximise opportunities Aim for coherence & alignment across levels

17. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 17 FINAL THOUGHTS

18. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 18 Key messages The future is uncertain Both dangerous and challenging Restructuring Greece is important & risky Risk can/must be managed proactively Including both threats and opportunities We need pioneers and change agents Acting within their scope of authority

19. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 19 You must be the change you wish to see in the world

20. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 20 And finally… Tackling the uncertain future requires everyone Project managers deliver capability & change… … in context of strategic & national effort to manage risk together restructuring Greece Including restructuring Greece

21. © Copyright 2015, The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 21 For further information contact: Dr David Hillson, The Risk Doctor david@risk-doctor.com The Risk Doctor Partnership www.risk-doctor.com