1. What we will discuss today l Some requirements for marketing research l Primary vs. secondary research l Market forecasting considerations

2. Requirements for Conducting Marketing Research l Systematic l Decision Oriented l Objective l Specific

3. Research Plan l Types and Methods l Sample Selection l Data

4. Research Methods l Observational Research l Focus-Group Research l Survey Research l Scanner Data

5. Research Instruments 1 Questionnaires l Validity: are we measuring what we want to measure? –Divergent Validity –Convergent Validity l Reliability: are the measures consistent over time and across situations? –Repeated Measures –Tests MultipleMeasures

6. and now, a test!

7. Foreign nationals should be allowed to hold jobs in the United States. StronglyStrongly Agree1 2 3 4 5 6 7Disagree

8. Foreign governments should allow American citizens to hold jobs in their countries. StronglyStrongly Agree1 2 3 4 5 6 7Disagree

9. Research Instruments 2 l Multiple Regression : the relationship of one set of variables on another set of variables l Discriminant Analysis : what factors distinguish two populations l Cluster Analysis : determine groups or clusters with similar characteristics in a population

10. Sampling 1 l Sampling Unit - the target population (who) l Sample Size - can be quite small (how many), depends on sampling procedure

11. Sampling 2: Sampling Procedure l Probability Sample: allows calculation of confidence limits due to sampling error –Simple Random Sample –Stratified Random Sample: mutually exclusive groups –Cluster Sample: mutually exclusive areas

12. Sampling 3: Sampling Procedure l Nonprobability Sample –Convenience Sample: the most accessible sample –Judgement Sample: use judgement as to which population might make the best subjects –Quota Sample: find and test certain # of subjects in each of several categories

13. A Sampling Problem You know that most pen manufacturers have a high rate of defective pens. You receive a shipment of 10,000 pens in a box. How can you determine the quality of this shipment?

14. Primary Vs. Secondary Data l Speed l Expense l Expertise l Info Accessibility

15. Data l Costly l Time Consuming l Fit With Needs

16. Sources of Market Information l Books and Periodicals l Consultants and Research Firms l Customers l Internal Records l Grapevine l Employees l Public records from competitors l Suppliers

17. Death by data asphyxiation

18. Kipling on Secondary Data? I keep six honest serving men, (they taught me all I know), their names are What, and Why, and When, and How and Where and Who. –“The Elephant’s Child” by Rudyard Kipling

19. Secondary Data: Some Questions to Consider l When was it collected? l How was it collected? l What is the expected level of accuracy? l Who collected the data? l Where was it collected; for what purpose?

20. Top ten developments expected to occur between 1969 to 1979 10. Sustained nuclear fusion to produce power 9. Fast breeder reacters for power generation 8. Nuclear-powered aircraft 7. Adhesive-bonded aircraft 6. Superhigh-speed submersibles 5. Ultrahigh-speed ground transportation 4. Superconducting coils for levitating speed vehicles 3. Room temperature superconducting materials 2. Manned exploration of Mars and Venus 1. Plastics as primary structures in buildings

21. Some Guidelines in Making Market Forecasts l Ask fundamental questions about markets –e.g., Who are the customers? –How large is the market? –Is there a real benefit? –Does the innovation go against customs, culture, or established business practice? –Are social trends moving toward or away from this market?

22. Some Guidelines in Making Market Forecasts l Avoid technological wonder l Stress cost-benefit analysis l Consider multiple methods and multiple scenarios

23. What we discussed today l Some requirements for marketing research l Primary vs. secondary research l Market forecasting considerations