1. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 1 Quality Metrics for Evaluating the Integration of New Renewable Energy Projects with Existing Resource Portfolios Jonathan Naughton Wind Energy Research Center Laramie, WY James Detmers Consultant Folsom, CA

2. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 2 Introduction Penetration of renewable energy has increased rapidly  Wind contribution to U.S. electricity supply has grown 0.3% in 2003 4.3% in 2013  Some states have proposed Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) of 50% As increase of renewables occurs, integration becomes more challenging increasingly important to consider variability of supply Various mitigation strategies exist  Rapid-start gas turbines  Energy storage  Demand-response strategies  Geographical diversity Mitigation approaches can be expensive  Reduce variability first to limit further mitigation  Apply more expensive mitigation strategies second

3. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 3 Introduction Metrics are needed to identify those combination of resources that reduce variability  Evaluate the effects of geographic or resource diversification  Define the technical requirements for the electrical system  Aid in planning and designing grid so reliability maintained throughout system transformation

4. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 4 Introduction Objectives  Demonstrate a group or Renewable Energy Quality Metrics (REQMs) that can be used to evaluate different renewable energy portfolios Approach  Define Metrics  Acquire power data (existing and proposed) Anemometer data from Wyoming  Convert wind data in to power Power data from California (CAISO)  Apply REQMs to different portfolios  Identify combinations or renewable energy sources that have the best performance

5. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 5 Approach Renewable Energy Quality Metrics Capacity Factor  Traditional performance metric  The power produced by a group of wind installations normalized by the power that would be produced if the installations ran continuously at full capacity.  A good site is characterized by a high capacity factor. 50% is an outstanding wind site

6. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 6 Renewable Energy Quality Metrics Relative Variability  The variability of power, characterized by its standard deviation, normalized by the mean power.  A good site is characterized by a low relative variability.

7. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 7 Approach Renewable Energy Quality Metrics P>0.05  P>5% represents the relative amount of time a group of installations is producing more than 5% of capacity  A good site is characterized by a high P>5% value. The higher the number, the less frequently the installations drop offline.

8. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 8 Approach Renewable Energy Quality Metrics P>0.25  P>25% represents the relative amount of time a group of installations is producing more than 25% of capacity  A good site is characterized by a high P>25% value. The higher the number, the more often the installations are producing significant amounts of power.

9. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 9 Scenarios Wyoming and California Wind and Solar  6000 MW in different combinations  100 MW existing with 100 MW added Wyoming Wind and California Renewables (NREL 33% Scenario) NREL 33% Added to Existing CA Renewables D. Corbus et al., “California- Wyoming Grid Integration study,” Technical Report NREL DE-AC36-08GO28308, March 2014.

10. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 10 Results Quality Metrics – CA/WY Wind Scenario }

11. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 11 Results Quality Metrics – CA/WY Wind Scenario

12. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 12 Results Quality Metrics – CA/WY Wind/Solar Scenario Adding California Wind  Capacity factor about the same  Relative variability drops  P>5% and P>25% increase slightly  Good addition for this case

13. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 13 Results Quality Metrics – CA/WY Wind/Solar Scenario Adding California Solar  Capacity factor about the same  Relative variability increase significantly  P>5% and P>25% decrease significanty  Poor addition for this case

14. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 14 Results Quality Metrics – CA/WY Wind/Solar Scenario Adding Wyoming Wind  Capacity factor increases significantly  Relative variability decreases significantly  P>5% and P>25% increases significantly  Best addition for this case

15. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 15 Results Quality Metrics – CA/WY Wind/Solar Scenario Adding Wyoming Wind vs. California Solar  Capacity factor nearly 50% higher  Relative variability 41% lower  P>25% higher by 86%

16. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 16 Results Quality Metrics CA Exist + NREL 33% Scenario Wyoming and California 33% scenarios added on top of California’s current renewable mix  Adding more CA resources only makes problem worse Variability goes up  Adding WY resources significantly improves performance parameters Variability drops significantly Amount of time resources are producing significantly increases Wyoming solution California solution

17. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 17 Conclusions Renewable Energy Quality Metrics (REQMs) have been proposed and applied to different scenarios.  Comparison of competing alternative renewable energy projects  Addition of renewable energy projects to existing resources The results indicate that REQMs provide and objective means of objectively assessing or quantifying renewable energy additions Use of REQMS  Assessment of mitigation strategies Geographical diversity effective  Evaluation tool for decision makers Additional metrics likely to be defined to better address certain issues  Ramp rates, over-generation, maximum deviations Change of metrics over time as new resources added should be considered

18. Naughton & Detmers September 10-11, 2015Energy Policy Research Conference 18 Acknowledgements The financial support of this work by the Wyoming Infrastructure Authority is gratefully Acknowledged. Wind and Power Data  Power Company of Wyoming Ryan Jacobsen  Pathfinder Wind Holly Wold  General Electric Skip Brennan and Daniel Fesenmeyer  CAISO David Timson and Clyde Loutan Feedback and Input on Analysis  Loyd Drain, Wyoming Infrastructure Authority  David Smith, Power Company of Wyoming  Jan Strack, San Diego Gas and Electric