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Significant Weather Variable terms … RHVPAIRTVP/TTOTWINDNEWIND current const111111 lag1 const111111 lag2 const111111 current P101111 lag1 P101111 lag2.

Published byClement Jennings Modified over 9 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "Significant Weather Variable terms … RHVPAIRTVP/TTOTWINDNEWIND current const111111 lag1 const111111 lag2 const111111 current P101111 lag1 P101111 lag2."— Presentation transcript:

1 Significant Weather Variable terms … RHVPAIRTVP/TTOTWINDNEWIND current const111111 lag1 const111111 lag2 const111111 current P101111 lag1 P101111 lag2 P101111 current P/A100111 lag1 P/A100011 lag2 P/A100011 current Pr/r101011 lag1 Pr/r101011 lag2 Pr/r101011 current Pr/r/Ar100011 lag1 Pr/r/Ar100011 lag2 Pr/r/Ar100011 Significance shown using logistic regression with both: 1) plevels at greater than 95% group confidence (99.94%); and 2) cross-validation with a Brier score cost function

2 Fitting all Weather Variables together … Step-wise forward selection used logistic regression and cross-validation with Brier score cost function RHVPAIRTVP/TTOTWINDNEWIND current const010000 lag1 const000010 lag2 const110000 current P000000 lag1 P000000 lag2 P000000 current P/A000000 lag1 P/A000000 lag2 P/A000000 current Pr/r000000 lag1 Pr/r000000 lag2 Pr/r000000 current Pr/r/Ar000000 lag1 Pr/r/Ar000000 lag2 Pr/r/Ar000000

3 Logistic Regression for probability of occurrence ( “any case” or “epidemic 15/10 5 )

4

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