Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byBrian Wiggins Modified over 9 years ago
1
The 13 th Seoul International Derivative & Alternative Investment Conference Seoul, August 26, 2015 Hung Tran Fed’s Liftoff, China’s Devaluation: EM’s Perfect Storm
2
Institute of International Finance 2 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.
3
Institute of International Finance 3 Source: Blue Chips Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts.
4
Institute of International Finance 4 Source: Federal Reserve, BEA, Bloomberg, IIF.
5
Institute of International Finance 5 Source: FRED, IIF.
6
Institute of International Finance 6 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.
7
Institute of International Finance 1894- 1932 1932- 1971 1971- 1999 1999- ongoing Peak year1817195119732010 Percent rise in prices during upswing 50.2%72.0%38.9%81.3% Percent fall in prices during downswing -54.6%-43.3%-52.5%- Length of the cycle (years) 383928- Upswing2319211 Downswing152026- 7 Total non-oil commodity prices Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
8
Institute of International Finance 8 Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research.
9
Institute of International Finance 9 Source: IIF.
10
Institute of International Finance 10 Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, IIF.
11
Institute of International Finance 11 Source: MRB Partners.
12
Institute of International Finance 12 Source: Haver, IIF.
13
Institute of International Finance 13 Source: Haver, Markit/Caixin.
14
Institute of International Finance 14 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.
15
Institute of International Finance 15 Source: IMF, Haver, BIS, IIF.
16
Institute of International Finance 16 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.
17
Institute of International Finance 17 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.
18
Institute of International Finance 18 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.
19
Institute of International Finance 19 Source: Haver.
20
Institute of International Finance 20 Source: CPB World Trade Monitor, IIF.
21
Institute of International Finance 21 Source: OECD-WTO, UNCTAD, Credit Suisse.
22
Institute of International Finance 22 Source: BIS, IMF, OECD, McKinsey, IIF;*Brazil, China, Czech Republic, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey
23
Institute of International Finance 23 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.
24
Institute of International Finance 24 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, IIF.
25
Institute of International Finance 25 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.
26
Institute of International Finance 26
27
Institute of International Finance 27 Source: EPFR, IIF estimates; includes mutual funds and ETFs.
28
Institute of International Finance 28 Source: Haver, NN Investment Partners, IIF.
29
Institute of International Finance 29 Source: IIF.
30
Institute of International Finance 30 Source: IMF, IIF.
31
Institute of International Finance 31 Source: UN, IIF.
32
Institute of International Finance 32 Source: United Nations.1-Age 15-64 years
33
Institute of International Finance percentEquitiesBondsFX* 2014-now-26.2-3.4-9.2 Taper tantrum-15.7-10.8-1.5 Financial crisis-66.1-26.6-5.2 Dot-com crisis-53.112.9-5.5 Asian crisis-33.2-3.1-17.7 33 Change from peak to trough, EM Assets *FX: GDP weighted average of 20 EM currencies vis-à-vis USD. Source: Bloomberg, IIF.
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.