1. Economic and Fiscal Review and Outlook 22 July 2014 Brandon Ellse

2. Outline  Purpose  Economic performance  Impact of slower growth  Consolidated fiscal framework  Non-interest expenditure  Interest expenditure  SA’s credit rating  Priority programmes  Priority spending sectors  Implications

3. Purpose  To provide members:  with an assessment of the current economic situation underlying the fiscal framework  the impact on the estimated growth in revenue, expenditure, the budget deficit and government borrowing  with a review on outcomes of expenditure to consider for possible reprioritisation, strengthening or efficiency gains within sectors  To assist members with making recommendations for possible adjustments to the current appropriations

4. Economic Performance  GDP growth in 2013: 1.8%  Estimated GDP growth for 2014: 2.7%  1 st quarter of 2014: contraction of 0.61% qoq compared with 3.8% qoq growth in the last quarter of 2013  revised estimates from different institutions for 2014: between 1.9 and 2.3 per cent  There is therefore a possibility that government will revise the growth forecast over the medium term

5. Impact of slower growth Revenue estimates are based on economic performance:  Slower growth will translate into lower revenue collection  If expenditure levels remain the same, the budget deficit will increase  Higher deficit translates into higher borrowing requirements and interest expenditure

6. Consolidated fiscal framework 2010/11 – 2016/17

7. Compensation expenditure

8. Interest expenditure  The level of interest payments is determined by total outstanding government debt and the cost of debt  The estimates of interest expenditure are susceptible to two distinct risks:  total government debt could grow beyond the estimated level  the downgrade of SA’s sovereign debt by credit rating agencies translate into higher interest costs on foreign borrowing and government’s ability to borrow

9. SA’s credit rating  In June 2014, Fitch and S&P downgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit rating  South Africa’s credit rating could be subjected to a further downgrade if the economic outlook deteriorates  A further downgrade would raise foreign debt service costs  Government would have limited space to raise more debt to fund future budget deficits  This would necessitate expenditure cuts on programmes  which would slow down the implementation of the National Development Plan

10. Priority programmes To ensure performance on the outcomes of the NDP the national budget is allocated towards programmes clustered together within functional groups

11. Priority spending sectors

13. Implications  Slower growth  Lower than expected revenue  higher budget deficit  higher cost to borrow  Less funds for spending on programmes  outcomes of NDP compromised  How do we respond?  address root causes of the constraints to economic growth  reprioritise  realise efficiency gains  monitor

14. Thank you

15. Provincial equitable share formula  The formula is largely population driven  Six factors capture the relative demand for services between provinces  education (48%)  health (27%)  basic share (16%)  poverty (3%)  economic activity (1%)  institutional (5%)  The PES formula is reviewed and updated with new data annually

16. Provincial allocations

17. Provincial allocations (cont.) percentage change in share

18. Provincial allocations (cont.)