1. Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 March 13, 2012

2. Class News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:2008 and 2010 Class –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action Projects: –First Meetings: Education: 23 February Cities: 8 March Regional: 13 March Universities: 13 March

3. The Current Climate (Released Monthly) Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center.Climate MonitoringNational Climatic Data Center –http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html State of the Climate: Global

4. Reading Response: Due March 15, 2012 Pacala and Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges,” Science, 2004 (link)link Socolow, “Wedges Reaffirmed,” Climate Central, 2011 (link)link Reading responses of roughly one page (single-spaced). The responses do not need to be elaborate, but they should also not summarize the reading. They should be used by you as think pieces to refine your questions and insight from the readings. They must be submitted via CTools at least two hours before the start of lecture for the relevant readings.

5. Wedges on the Web Carbon Mitigation Initiative @ Princeton UniversityCarbon Mitigation Initiative

6. Today Structure of problem solving Policy Interface 1 –Uncertainty Fallacy Policy Interface 2 –Global Mitigation Elements of the Political Argument

7. Granularity No matter how we cut through this problem we come to the conclusion that there is a lot of granularity within the problem. This granularity represents complexity, which must be used to develop a portfolio of solutions rather than to classify the problem as intractable.

8. The previous viewgraphs have introduced “granularity” This is a classic short-term versus long-term problem. –Ethics –Economics –Reaction versus anticipation Similarly, regional versus global Rich and poor Competing approaches –Mitigation versus adaptation –Transportation versus Electrical Generation –This versus that

9. We arrive at levels of granularity TEMPORAL NEAR-TERMLONG-TERM SPATIAL LOCAL GLOBAL WEALTH Small scales inform large scales. Large scales inform small scales. Need to introduce spatial scales as well Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change

10. What is short-term and long-term? 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years ENERGY SECURITY ECONOMY CLIMATE CHANGE Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime,... LONG SHORT There are short-term issues important to climate change. Election time scales

11. Structure of Problem Solving (http://glisaclimate.org/home )http://glisaclimate.org/home

12. Knowledge Generation Reduction Disciplinary Problem Solving Unification Integration Complexity challenges disciplinary intuition The details of the problem often de-correlate pieces of the problem. –What do I mean? Think about heat waves? This challenges the intuition of disciplined-based experts, and the ability to generalize. – For example --- Detroit is like Chicago. The consideration of the system as a whole causes tensions – trade offs - optimization

13. Today Structure of problem solving Policy Interface 1 –Uncertainty Fallacy Policy Interface 2 –Global Mitigation Elements of the Political Argument

14. Policy A natural reaction to greenhouse gas emissions is to look to government, to the development of policy to address the problems that we are faced with.

15. Policy What do we look to policy to accomplish? –Some common, relevant purposes of policy Stimulate technology: Provide incentives or disincentives for behavior. (Often through financial or market forces.) Set regulations: Put bounds on some type of behavior, with penalties if the bounds are exceeded. Make internal some sort of procedure or behavior or cost that is currently external. –A more abstract point of view Represents collective values of society: what is acceptable and what is not. Interface with the law? Provides the constraints and limits, the checks and balances in which we run our economy.

16. Policy-climate science interface (1) It is sensible to look at governance and policy to address climate change –It’s a “greater good” problem –It relates to natural resources and waste from the use of natural resources –It impacts economic and national security –There is precedence (Ocean and Acid Rain) Given the relation to energy and wealth it is natural to expect there will not to be a “one size fits all solution” for climate change. –One size fits all is one of the most common traps that “managers” and “leaders” fall into. Feeds polarization and rhetoric Guided to one size by political interests

17. Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty Knowledge from Predictions Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted Motivates policy Policy 1)Uncertainty always exists 2)New uncertainties will be revealed 3)Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging

18. Science: Knowledge and Uncertainty Knowledge from Predictions Motivates policy Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted Policy 1)Uncertainty always exists 2)New uncertainties will be revealed 3)Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging What we are doing now is, largely, viewed as successful. We are reluctant to give up that which is successful. We are afraid that we will suffer loss.

19. A Premise Climate change problem cannot be solved in isolation. Requires integration with all elements of society. –Requires identification of reasons to motivate us to take action Apparent benefit Excess Risk

20. A Conclusion about Policy Policy cannot stand alone as our response to climate change. –Every person and every group of people will be impacted by climate change, and therefore, by policy to address climate change. In fact, some feel that they are more impacted by policy than by climate change. Policy has to not only be effective, but it has to include and balance the interests of all who have a stake. –Policy opportunity Policy represents our values – our societal belief system. –It sets the bounds on behavior to benefit society

21. The Uncertainty Fallacy That the systematic reduction of scientific uncertainty will lead to development of policy is a fallacy. –Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy from converging. –That is – this is a political issue What might lead to successful policy efforts?

22. Today Structure of problem solving Policy Interface 1 –Uncertainty Fallacy Policy Interface 2 –Global Mitigation Elements of the Political Argument

23. The Official Policy is: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change –Framework Convention on Climate ChangeFramework Convention on Climate Change

24. What is COP? COP is the Conference of Parties –Parties are those countries who have signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. There are 192 signatories.Framework Convention on Climate Change Essential Background UNFCCC

25. Michigan Observer Status Framework Convention Parties and ObserversParties and Observers –Parties are signatories of Framework Convention –Observers are invited to the meeting for participation, transparency, and accountability United Nations Representatives Intergovernmental Organizations Non-governmental Organizations –Virtual ParticipationVirtual Participation

26. Framework Convention on Climate Change (US in part of this.) UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992, non-binding, voluntary, 192 signers) –Reduce CO 2 Emissions in 2000 to 1990 levels –Inventories of greenhouse gas emissions –Mitigate Climate Change Mid-1990’s –No reduction in emissions –Evidence of warming and impacts

27. Framework Convention on Climate Change

28. Development of International Approach to Climate Change IPCC established Kyoto Protocol Copenhagen Accord Framework Convention (UNFCCC) 1988199219972007 Scientific assessment Non-binding aim Binding emissions target 19952001 2009 Keep warming less than 2 C

29. Dangerous climate change? What is dangerous?

30. Stern Report: Influential: Useful for thinking about problem Draws on recent science which points to ‘significant risks of temperature increases above 5°C under business-as-usual by the early part of the next century’ — other studies typically have focused on increases of 2–3°C. Treats aversion to risk explicitly. Adopts low pure time discount rates to give future generations equal weight. Takes account of the disproportionate impacts on poor regions.

31. Dangerous climate change? Stern, 2006

32. Stern Report Considered a radical revision of climate change economics. –If we don’t act now it will cost between 5% and 20% of gross domestic product (an aggregate measure of economy.) Stands in contrast to many studies that usually come to numbers of closer to 1% –The idea that initiation of a policy with a slow growth rate will have little impact on the economy or environment in the beginning, but will ultimately become important when the nature of expenditures is more clear.

33. Some carry away messages Determine what is a tolerable ceiling for carbon dioxide. -Gives cap for a cap and trade system. -Tolerable ceilings have been posed as between 450 and 550 ppm. -Ice sheet melting and sea level? -Oceanic circulation / The Gulf Stream? -Ocean acidification? -Determine a tolerable measure of increased temperature -Copenhagen Accord (2009)  2 o C

34. Dangerous climate change? Stern, 2006

35. 1992 Convention Commitments All Parties agree to: 4.1.b. Mitigate emissions and enhance sinks 4.1.c. Promote technology development and transfer 4.1.e. Cooperate on research and observation Developed Countries’ aim to return emissions to 1990 levels by the end of the century

36. Assessment Mid-1990’s –No reduction in emissions –Evidence of warming and impacts 2001 –No reduction in emissions –Evidence of warming and impacts 2007 –No reduction in emissions –Evidence of warming and impacts

37. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Data and more information “ This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through … a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels. ” --Lyndon Johnson Special Message to Congress, 1965

38. Kyoto Protocol followed 1995 assessments Is the Kyoto Protocol still relevant?

39. Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol (December, 1997, binding limits on or reduction of emissions) –Must be signed (155 signers (?186)) and ratified At least 55 countries That represent 55 % or more of emissions –Open for signatures on March 16, 1998 –Went into effect on February 16, 2005 After Russia signed and ratified

40. Kyoto Protocol Requirements Developed nations reduce their emissions 5.2% below 1990 emissions –Reduction (increases) vary across countries –Relaxed a little over the years to attract signers –(Treaty: U.S. 7% reduction: Actual: 12% higher in 2004, 30% by 2012) Addresses “six” greenhouse gases (CO 2, Methane CH 4, Nitrous Oxide N 2 O, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride) Commitment period 2008-2012 Set of other activities –Improve “local emission factors” –Inventories of emissions and sinks –Mitigation and adaptation plans –Environmentally sound technology diffusion to developing nations

41. Kyoto Protocol Issues Amount and distribution for limits and reductions What greenhouse gases to include Developing countries in or out of emission requirements Trading, market-based mechanisms Role of removing greenhouse gases

42. Kyoto Protocol: Important Add ons Market-based mechanisms –Emissions trading –Joint implementation –Clean development mechanisms

43. Flexibility in Achieving Targets “What” flexibility –Targets apply to CO 2 -equivalent emissions of basket of six GHGs –Can use carbon sinks (e.g. forests) as offsets “When” flexibility –Five-year commitment period –Banking “Where” flexibility –Market mechanisms: ET, JI, CDM Thanks to Rosina Bierbaum

44. “Flaws” in Kyoto Protocol Participation of Developing Countries –Large populations, large projected growth Participation of the United States –25 % of greenhouse gas emissions Other “flaws” –Does not go far enough: Emission goals don’t adequately mitigate dangerous climate change –2008-2012 commitment period – then what?

45. Beyond 2012 Conference of Parties, Copenhagen 2009 Copenhagen Accord

46. Today Structure of problem solving Policy Interface 1 –Uncertainty Fallacy Policy Interface 2 –Global Mitigation Elements of the Political Argument

47. PA1: Just a Theory A common statement is that greenhouse gas is just a theory, equating theory with conjecture. –Theory is not conjecture, it is testable. Theory suggests some amount of cause and effect – a physical system, governed by quantitative conservation equations. –Theory is not fact, it can and will change. –Need to consider the uncertainty, and the plausibility that the theory might be wrong. Often it is stated in this discussion that gravity is only a theory. –True, and the theory of gravity is a very useful theory, one put forth by Newton. –True, we don’t exactly understand the true nature of the force of gravity, there are “why” questions. –Formally, Newton’s theory of gravity is incorrect – that’s what Einstein did. Still, it is a very useful and very accurate theory, that allows us, for example, to always fall down and never fall up – and go to the Moon with some confidence.

48. PA2: Greenhouse Effect This is generally not a strongly argued point. Warming of the surface due to greenhouse gases make the planet habitable. –Habitable? Water exists in all three phases? Water and carbon dioxide and methane are most important natural greenhouse gases. Often a point of argument that water is the “dominant” gas, so traces of CO2 cannot be important. –Water is dominant … often said 2/3 rds of warming. Because there is so much water in the ocean, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is largely determined by temperature. (The relative humidity.) –This is where it is important to remember the idea of balance, the climate is in balance, and it is differences from this balance which we have co-evolved with that are important. Burning fossil fuels is taking us away from this balance. It is like opening or closing a crack in the window … it makes a big difference.

49. PA3: What happens to this CO 2 A “new” political argument: CO 2 from fossil fuels is small compared to what comes from trees and ocean. True. But a lot goes into trees and oceans as well. So it is the excess CO 2, the CO 2 on the margin that comes from fossil fuel burning. Not all of this goes into the trees and oceans, and it accumulates in the atmosphere. There are 8.6 Petagrams C per year emitted –3.5 Pg C stay in atmosphere –2.3 Pg C go into the ocean –3.0 Pg C go into the terrestrial ecosystems Terrestrial ecosystems sink needs far better quantification –Lal, Carbon Sequestration, PhilTransRoySoc 2008Lal, Carbon Sequestration, PhilTransRoySoc 2008 It’s a counting problem! One of our easier ones.

50. PA4: Cycles Some say that there are cycles, they are natural, they are inevitable, they show that human have no influence. –Cycles? yes  natural? Yes Inevitable  There are forces beyond our control –We can determine what causes cycle; they are not supernatural Greenhouse gases change “Life” is involved  ocean and land biology Humans are life  This is the time humans release CO 2

51. PA4: Cycles  CO 2 and T At the turn around of the ice ages, temperature starts to go up before CO 2 ; hence, T increase is unrelated to CO 2 –Need to think about time and balance here … There are sources of T and CO 2 variability other than the radiative greenhouse gas effect. –If CO 2 increases in the atmosphere, there will be enhanced surface warming, but is the increase large enough to change temperature beyond other sources of variability? –If T increases, there could be CO 2 increases associated with, for instance, release from solution in the ocean –CO2 increases could come from burning fossil fuels, massive die off of trees, volcanoes  have to count, know the balance.

52. PA4: Cycles: Ice Ages In 1975 scientists were predicting an ice age. Now warming. You have no credibility, why should we believe you now. –In 1975, small number of papers got a lot of press attention. –2010  Think scientific method Observations, observations, observations Improved theory, predictions, cause and effect Results reproduced my many investigators, using many independent sources of observations Consistency of theory, prediction, and observations Probability of alternative description is very small.

53. The last 1000 years: The hockey stick Surface temperature and CO 2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.  Medieval warm period  “Little ice age”  Temperature starts to follow CO 2 as CO 2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years. PA5:

54. PA5: Hockey Stick This is the “hockey stick” figure and it is very controversial. Quality of data, presentation, manipulation, messaging. –Rood blogRood blog –Nature on Hockey Stick ControversyNature on Hockey Stick Controversy There are some issues with data, messaging, emotions of scientists here, but the data are, fundamentally, correct.

55. PA5: Hockey Stick: Science But place the surface temperature record of the hockey stick in context using the scientific method. –Reproduction of results by independent researchers, through independent analyses –Verification of results in other types of observations  sea level rise, ocean heat content, earlier start of spring –Consistency of signals with theory  upper tropospheric cooling –Evaluation of alternative hypotheses

56. PA5: Hockey Stick: Temperature source There has developed a discussion between those who believe in surface temperature data and those who believe in satellite data. –Scientifically, it should not be a matter of belief, but validation. Each system has strengths and weaknesses. Differences should be reconciled, not held as proof of one over the other. Surface: Issues of how sited, representative, urban heat island –If ignored (wrong), then data flawed –If taken into account (right), then data are manipulted Satellite data objective and accurate? –Read the literature! Took years to get useful temperature. Every satellite is different, calibrated with non-satellite data And ultimately: Scientific method –Reproduction of results by independent researchers, through independent analyses –Verification of results in other types of observations –Consistency of signals with theory –Evaluation of alternative hypotheses

57. Projects

58. Use of climate information Research on the use of climate knowledge states that for successful projects, for example: –Co-development / Co-generation –Trust –Narratives –Scale Spatial Temporal Lemos and Morehouse, 2005

59. Projects Broad subjects and teams defined Meeting 1 with Rood –Now to early March: Project vision and goals Meeting 2 with Rood –Mid to late March: Progress report, refinement of goals if needed Class review –Short, informal presentation, external review and possible coordination Oral Presentation: April 10 and 12 Final written report: April 25

60. Project Teams Education / Denial –Allison Caine –Nayiri Haroutunian –Elizabeth McBride –Michelle Reicher

61. Project Teams Regional –Emily Basham –Catherine Kent –Sarah Schwimmer –James Toth –Nicholas Fantin

62. Project Teams City –Jian Wei Ang –Erin Dagg –Caroline Kinstle –Heather Lucier

63. Project Teams University –Nathan Hamet –Adam Schneider –Jillian Talaski –Victor Vardan

64. glisaclimate.org Goal to facilitate problem solving –Based on class experience –Support narratives –Build templates for problem solving