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December 12 – 3:30-5:30 2 hour exam All material from policy agenda+ formulation forward Responsible for themes for whole course Responsible for specifics of readings and lectures only from agenda and formulation forward except section of Chap 1 ISOS on policy cycle 2 Review session: Tu Dec 10 (Room TBA) 11-12 (whole class) 12-1 (students from whom English in not first language Office Hours George Monday Dec 9, 1-4 Wednesday Dec 11, 10-12 and 2-4 By appointment Office Hours Gabrielle Friday Dec 6th, 1-4pm Monday Dec 9th, 9-11 am Tuesday Dec 10th, 10am-12pm
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Feedback on course Forest policy futures Short term ▪ BC Liberal Future ▪ What if the NDP had won? Longer Term Barriers to more sustainable policy Final words
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Themes Policy Content Objective: Draw out broader themes while reducing complexity Concern: Still too complex?
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Forces at work framework How government works Interest Groups First Nations International Context US Influence Policy Cycle Policy Formulation Decision-making and Policy Design Implementation New Values: Carbon and Bio-energy Comparisons Cases Great Bear Rainforest Mountain Pine Beetle 5 Policy Categories 1.tenure 2.Stumpage 3.Rate of harvest 4.Land Use zoning 5.Regulation of Forest Practices 6.Emergent areas – carbon, energy
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Should there be tutorials How would you create space for them?
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Website Facebook page Twitter feed
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Short term BC Liberal Future What if the NDP had won? Longer term
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Mandate letter for appointment of Minister Steve Thomson Mandate letter
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Major Campbell initiatives that seem to be continued Greenhouse gas reductions? ▪ Pacific Carbon Trust eliminated, function retained ▪ Pressure on forests will increase to offset LNG emissions Aboriginal reconciliation – signs of move away from treaty focus but that was underway Reorganization – process seems incomplete ▪ But bigger steps impolitic ▪ Name change?
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Current: Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resource Operations
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New funds Expanded reforestation Updated inventory, more R&D on adaptation Restriction on log exports Reduce wood waste, create bio-energy opportunities http://www.bcndp.ca/files/BCNDP-Platform-2013-Web.pdf
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What values will we be managing for? Resurgent commodities Carbon Bioenergy Biodiversity Recreation Aesthetics Governance Corporatization Privatization Decentralization (Haley and Nelson’s 3 alternatives)
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Great sources for BC tenure data http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hth/timber- tenures/apportionment/index.htmhttp://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hth/timber- tenures/apportionment/index.htm
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SFM: optimizing 3 dimensions – now and in the future Economic Environmental Social Diagnosis: failure (too strong?)
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Undue focus on sustained yield of timber Insufficiently comprehensive rights Growing trees Multiple timber species Energy Non-market Forced vertical integration (abandoned in BC) Inefficient land use zoning Overly stringent regulation
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Integrative management of jointly produced resources Flexibility Innovation Clarity
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Intellectual Value differences Uncertainties Political opposition from those benefitting from the status quo Decision rule that advantage opponents to change Institutional mismatch Path dependence
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“once a policy or institutional path is established, entrenched mindsets, interests, and institutions make departures from the status quo difficult to envision” (Luckert et al)
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Potential beneficial policy changes are frequently thwarted by intellectual, political, and/or institutional obstacles. Path dependence increases the costs of change.
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The meaning is in the detail
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Complexity Facts and values Steps: Identify argument Values underlying Facts Be respective of value differences Be conscious of “motivated reasoning” Mobilize evidence Persuasion requires appealing to their values Steps in Policy Analysis Define problem Criteria for evaluation Identify multiple alternatives Outcomes/consequences of alternatives Compare/tradeoff Recommended decision
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