1. New Products and Services at the Storm Prediction Center Dr. Russell S. Schneider Dr. Joseph T. Schaefer Dr. David R. Bright Steven J. Weiss Andy R. Dean DOC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP Storm Prediction Center BASC - June 2008 “Where America’s Weather and Climate Services Begin”

2. Outline Forecast Service Advances Severe weather outlooks through Day 8 Probabilistic hazard forecasts Individual hazard probabilities (Day 1 & Watches) –forecast for (extreme) tornado, hail, wind Science Infusion & Collaboration Specialized mission specific software and data Hazardous Weather Testbed Early integration of ensemble forecast systems Storm-resolving WRF NWP Storm-scale Ensemble Forecast System

3. “The Storm Prediction Center exists solely to protect the life and property of the American people through the issuance of timely, accurate watch and forecast products dealing with tornadoes and other hazardous mesoscale weather phenomena.”

4. Tornadoes, Hail & Wind Fire weather (Day 1- 8) Winter weather Excessive rainfall Storm Prediction Center Hazardous Phenomena

5. Severe Weather Outlooks Day 4-8 Outlook Operational since March 2007

6. Severe Weather Outlooks Exploit ensembles to produce probabilistic information through Day 8 Day 6 Day 7 Day 6 Day 8 Day 4-8 Outlook Operational since March 2007 First Outlook

7. Severe Weather Outlooks Exploit ensembles to produce probabilistic information through Day 8 Day 6 Day 4-8 Outlook Operational since March 2007

8. “Super Tuesday” Outbreak 5 February 2008 56 Fatalities - 15 th Largest Death Toll since 1950

9. “Super Tuesday” Outbreak 5 February 2008 56 Fatalities - 15 th Largest Death Toll since 1950

10. “Super Tuesday” Outbreak 56 Fatalities - 15 th Largest Death Toll since 1950

11. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Operational since March 2007 30% Probability of an Event within 25 mi of a point (“high end” Slight Risk) “Potential too Low” <30 % Probability “Predictability too Low” Widespread severe weather possible, but too much uncertainty to forecast an area Graphic & Short Discussion Issued at 2:30 am Central

12. Day 3 & Day 2 Convective Outlook Operational since: 2001 & 1986 (categorical); 2001 & 2000 (probabilistic) Probability of Severe Weather within 25 miles of a point Hatched Area --- 10% or greater chance of an extreme event (EF2 or greater tornado, 2” or larger hail, 65 kt or faster gust) Graphic & Discussion Valid for 24 hour period 1200 UTC – 1200 UTC Issued at 2:30 am Central Issued at 1:00 am Central & updated at 1730 UTC DAY AFTER TOMORROW TOMORROW

13. Day 1 Convective Outlook Operational since 1955 (catagorical) & 2000 (probabilistic) Probability of individual hazards within 25 miles of a point Hatched Areas --- 10% or greater chance of an extreme event (F2 or greater tornado, 2” or larger hail, 65 kt or faster gust) Issued at 0600 UTC; updated at 1300, 1630, 2000, 0100 UTC Valid for period ending at 1200 UTC Categorical Risk Hail Probability Tornado Probability Wind Probability

14. Verification of Probabilistic Outlooks Tornado (2006: Initial Day 1) Significant tornado forecast (hatched area)

15. Verification of Probabilistic Outlooks Hail (2006 - Initial Day 1) Significant hail forecast (hatched area)

16. All Convective Watches do not have the same risk

17. Watch Hazard Probabilities All watches are not created equal Use the probabilities to refine the specific threat within the watch and gauge forecaster confidence in the specific convective hazards Operational since 2006

18. Verification of Watch Probabilities One or More Significant Tornadoes (EF2-EF5) > EF2 First Guess for Forecast is Based on Hazard Climatology

19. SPC Watch Verification for Significant Tornadoes (EF2-EF5) Percent of Extreme Tornado Events in a Watch Percent of Extreme Tornadoes in a Tornado Watch Percent of Extreme Tornadoes 2006: POD > 94%

20. Science Infusion & Collaboration

21. National Weather Center Co-location !!! SPC WFO Norman NSSL WDTB CIMMS OU School of Meteorology CAPS, OCS Private Sector (nearby)

22. SPC Personnel Distribution (33 Government, 4 Contract, 2 Students) Operations Branch 1 Branch Chief 5 Lead Forecasters 5 Lead Forecasters 10 Mesoscale/Outlook 10 Mesoscale/Outlook 5 Assistant Mesoscale 5 Assistant Mesoscale Administration 1 Director 1 Director 1 WCM (outreach) 1 WCM (outreach) 1 Administrative Officer 1 Administrative Officer 1 Contract Admin. Coord. 1 Contract Admin. Coord. Science Support Branch 1 Branch Chief 1 Science & Operations (SOO) 1 Science & Operations (SOO) 3 Science & Tech. Infusion 3 Science & Tech. Infusion 1 Contract Met. Programmer 1 Contract Met. Programmer 1 ESA 1 ESA 1 Software Analyst 1 Software Analyst 1 System Administrator 1 System Administrator 2 Contract Computer Support 2 Contract Computer Support 2 SCEP 2 SCEP Organic Science Infusion Capability

23. Examples of Organic (day-to-day) Science Infusion Activities

26. Severe Storm Environment Relational Database All “final” severe weather reports since 1950 Environmental estimates from SPC - RUC analysis (2003 - present) All historic SPC forecast products Lightning & radar derived data 139,715 reports & 7396 tornadoes

27. High Instability - Strong Shear Low Instability - Strong Shear Severe Reports Environment Hours Severe Reports ~50hr/yr ~100hr/yr

28. Tornado Environments Shear Instability

29. Context Based Verification Shear Instability

30. Context Based Verification Shear Instability

31. Context Based Verification Shear Instability Overall POD: 0.69

32. Where we must improve … Shear Instability Overall POD: 0.69

34. NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Two Main Program Areas… E xperimental W arning P rogram E xperimental F orecast P rogram EFPEWP Prediction of hazardous weather events from a few hours to a week in advance Detection and prediction of hazardous weather events up to several hours in advance

35. NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed HWT – Experimental Forecast Program Objectives Advance the science of weather forecasting and prediction of severe convective weather consistent with NOAA strategic goals Enhance collaboration between researchers and forecasters on topics of mutual interest through real-time forecasting and evaluation activities during active severe weather Provide for thorough examination and efficient delivery of scientific advances for SPC and NWS operations Disciplined collaboration to advance forecast operations

36. HWT Contributions to Advances in SPC Operations Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) SREF Workshop (NCEP 1994) Collaboration on SREF with EMC & NSSL (1999-2002) SPC focused SREF guidance in Operations (2003) Developing additional calibrated high impact wx. guidance Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) SPC Focused GEFS Guidance in Operations (2005) Working toward NAEFS tools (2009) Convection Allowing High Resolution NWP Experimental WRF data in Operations (2004) Operational WRF data in Operations (2008)

37. Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Satellites 99.9% Regional NAM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate CFS 1.7B Obs/Day Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite MOM3 NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ WRF NMM

38. Ensemble Guidance at the SPC Critical Role in SPC Forecast Advances Develop specialized guidance for the specific application (severe weather, fire weather, winter weather) GEFS (NAEFS), SREF, RREF, SSEF Design guidance that… Helps blend deterministic and ensemble approaches Facilitates physically based analysis of risk factors Provide guidance for uncertainty/probabilistic forecasts Illustrates a range of plausible scenarios Allows for diagnostic analysis – is not just a statistical black-box

39. Ensemble Guidance at the SPC Critical Role in SPC Forecast Advances Develop specialized guidance for the specific application Severe weather, fire weather, winter weather GEFS (NAEFS), SREF, RREF, SSEF Design guidance that… Supports blend deterministic and ensemble approaches Facilitates physically based analysis of risk factors Provide guidance for uncertainty/probabilistic forecasts Illustrates a range of plausible scenarios

40. Severe Event of April 7, 2006 SREF environmental guidance increased forecaster confidence leading to a “High Risk” Day 2 outlook This was the first Day 2 High Risk ever issued by SPC Impact: More than 800 total severe reports –3 killer tornadoes and 10 deaths

41. SREF Combined or Joint Probability Pr [MUCAPE > 2000 J/kg] X Pr [ESHR > 40 kts] X Pr [C03I > 0.01”] Probability of convection in high CAPE, high shear environment (favorable for supercells)

42. Calibrated Products at SPC –Use large-scale environmental forecasts to calibrate (i.e., statistically post-process) the ensemble and downscale to the phenomena of interest Probability of Thunderstorms (CG Lightning) Probability of Severe Thunderstorms (Reports) Probability of Dry Thunderstorms (Lightning & RH) Probability of Snowfall accumulation (MADIS)

43. Uncalibrated Probability of a Thunderstorm 15h Forecast Ending: 00 UTC 01 Sept 2004 Uncorrected probability: Solid/Filled 3 hr valid period: 21 UTC 31 Aug to 00 UTC 01 Sept 2004

44. Calibrated Probability of a Thunderstorm 15h Forecast Ending: 00 UTC 01 Sept 2004 Calibrated probability: Solid/Filled 3 hr valid period: 21 UTC 31 Aug to 00 UTC 01 Sept 2004

45. 15h Forecast Ending: 00 UTC 01 Sept 2004 Calibrated probability: Solid/Filled; NLDN CG Strikes (Yellow +) 3 hr valid period: 21 UTC 31 Aug to 00 UTC 01 Sept 2004 Calibrated Probability of a Thunderstorm

46. Perfect Forecast No Skill Perfect Forecast No Skill Calibrated Reliability (5 Aug to 5 Nov 2004) Calibrated Thunder Probability Climatology Frequency [0%, 5%, …, 100%]

47. SREF 6h Calibrated Probability of Snow/Ice Accum Accumulation calibration based on MADIS road surface observations

48. Wide range of high impact SREF guidance are available at the SPC website http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

49. 4 km WRF-ARW4.5 km WRF-NMM 2 km WRF-ARWRADAR VERIFICATION Simulated Reflectivity 24-h Fcsts Valid 00 UTC 12 May 2005

50. WRF 24 hr Reflectivity Forecasts Valid 00z 26 May 2005 ARW4 ARW2 NMM4 RADAR 4 km WRF-ARW 2 km WRF-ARW 4.5 km WRF-NMM RADAR VERIFICATION Simulated Reflectivity 24-h Fcsts Valid 00 UTC 26 May 2005

51. WRF 24 hr Reflectivity Forecasts Valid 00z 26 May 2005 ARW4 ARW2 NMM4 RADAR 4 km WRF-ARW 2 km WRF-ARW 4.5 km WRF-NMM RADAR VERIFICATION Simulated Reflectivity 24-h Fcsts Valid 00 UTC 26 May 2005

52. Experimental Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) HWT Spring Experiment  Focused on experimental high-res WRF forecasts since 2004 (dx ~2-4 km) Convection allowing ensemble forecasts (2007-2009) to address uncertainty  10 WRF members  4 km grid length over 3/4 CONUS  Major contributions from: SPC, NSSL, OU/CAPS, EMC, NCAR Evaluate the ability of convection allowing ensembles to predict:  Convective mode (i.e., type of severe wx)  Magnitude of severe type (e.g., peak wind)  Aviation impacts (e.g., convective lines/tops)  QPF/Excessive precipitation  Year 1 Objective (2007): Assess the role of physics vs. initial condition uncertainty at high resolution

53. 2 km AGL 5 km AGL Convective Mode: Supercell Detection Besides simulated reflectivity, need a quantitative tool for supercell detection and strength in deterministic and ensemble forecasts

54. Probability Updraft Helicity > 50 m 2 /s 2 Supercell Forecast (26 hour) Radar BREF 0142 UTC 22 Apr 2008 F026: Valid 02 UTC 22 Apr 2008 Updaft Helicity > 50 m 2 s -2 within 25 miles Supercell Observed

55. Probability Updraft Helicity > 50 m 2 /s 2 Looking south from Norman, OK (0145 UTC 22 Apr 2008) (Numerous large hail reports up to 2.25 inch) Jack Hales

56. Convective Mode Prediction: Linear Determine contiguous areas exceeding 35 dbZ Estimate mean length-to-width ratio of the contiguous area; search for ratios > 5:1 Flag grid point if the length exceeds: 50 miles 100 miles 200 miles

57. Probability Linear Mode Exceeding 200 miles Squall Line Prediction F024: Valid 00 UTC 18 Apr 2008 Linear mode + 25 miles

58. Probability Linear Mode Exceeding 200 miles Squall Line Prediction F026: Valid 02 UTC 18 Apr 2008 Linear mode + 25 miles

59. Linear Convective Mode: Impacts Aviation impacts ~ 01 UTC 18 April 2008

60. Challenges for Severe Weather Enhance Operations – Research Collaboration Support Testbed Infrastructure (R2O & O2R) –Staff Increase Participation through AO Process –Travel Support –Research Support Reward Effective Collaborators –Operational Meteorologists –Researchers (Government & Academic) Experimental Data Flows & Workstations –GOES-R Proving Ground Invest in NOAA Computer Capacity Harvest Potential of Storm Resolving NWP –Deterministic & Ensemble

61. NOAA Storm Prediction Center www.spc.noaa.gov