1. Ocean Acidification and the Challenges facing the American Lobster Fishery in a Changing Ecosystem Richard A. Wahle University of Maine | School of Marine Sciences Maine perilously dependent on one fishery. Lobsters at historic highs, but will it last? While UMaine leads research on lobster, OA effects are unknown.

2. 2 Co-chairs: Rick Wahle (UMaine) Andrea Battison (CrustiPath) Paul Anderson (ME SG) Special issue Vol. 70 no.11 Nov 2013

3. Animation Source: M. Fogarty, NMFS/NEFSC

4. $1.09 billion in 2012 As other fisheries collapse American lobsters surge…. Source: US NMFS & Canada DFO

5. Maine’s Historic Highs Value: $364M in 2013 ME MA RI

6. 6 A perilous dependency on one fishery Ting-Li Wang/The New York Times

7. 7 Photo: Curtsinger (Nat. Geo.) deplete large predators deplete large predators booming lobsters… booming lobsters…

8. A Warming Gulf of Maine Source: Mills et al. 2013 Since 1982: ~1°C every 40 years Since 2004: ~1°C every 4 years

9. 20°C 12°C 20°C 12°C Hot and Cold Thresholds

10. 1990 2012 2011 Southern New England’s receding lobster nurseries Wahle et al. in prep Narragansett Bay ↑Temp ↓DO, pH

11. Shell disease spreads north 1997 1998 2000 2002 2003 Source: MA DMF, ME DMR 2012

12. Global Ocean Data Analysis Project Ocean Acidification North Atlantic acidifying faster than elsewhere. OA effects poorly studied. Interactions of OA with other stressors even less studied. Effects are species- and life-stage specific (estimated 1700s – 1990s)

13. Ocean Acidification Research on Lobsters and Crabs

14. Forecasting puts the future in our hands Lead time  Choices  Resilience

15. American Lobster Settlement Index – An Early warning? Lobster Forecasts

16. An Early warning system? Yes… but no crystal ball. ? Reported Landings Forecasts

17. Challenges for Maine’s fishery Adapting to a shifting geography & shell disease. Minimizing the cost of fishing while maximizing value. Scientific Challenges Weighing interactive effects of the diabolical trinity: warming – hypoxia - acidification. Assessing life stage- and species-specific responses. Building infrastructure and collaborations to do long-term controlled studies. Supporting long-term environmental monitoring. Communication and outreach.

18. “We don’t really know the effects of ocean acidification on lobsters, but we do know the effects on shellfish and clams and it’s not positive. As long as the industrial nations of the world use fossil fuel, it’s going to get worse.” Dave Cousins, President Maine Lobstermen’s Assn. Bangor Daily News 1/13/2014