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Poverty Thresholds Analysis: Reassessing and Revalidating Quantitative Indicators Zulfiqar Ali 02 May 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "Poverty Thresholds Analysis: Reassessing and Revalidating Quantitative Indicators Zulfiqar Ali 02 May 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 Poverty Thresholds Analysis: Reassessing and Revalidating Quantitative Indicators Zulfiqar Ali 02 May 2011

2 Mean Values of and Household Distribution by Candidate Poverty Indicators IndicatorsBottom 10%Ex-poor (lpl)Mod-poor (upl)Non-poor Household size5.215.195.104.75 Female headed household.11.09.08.13 Total cultivable land (acre).22.29.441.11 Homestead land (acre).06.08.10.14 Total operated land (acre).39.52.701.16 Livestock.31.35.42.43 Poultry.61.62.65.67 Bamboo.22.24.28.33 Timber.30.35.40 Total non-land asset value8,80511,50917,85331,119 Access to electricity.08.11.19.41 Poor roof material (% of hhs)22.219.715.67.4 Access to sanitary toilet (% of hhs)24.2 32.352.4 HH head illiterate (% of hhs)79.578.369.452.2 HH head primary complete and above (%) 8.39.417.331.0 Spouse illiterate (% of hhs)82.078.674.959.6 Spouse primary complete and above (%) 5.77.810.723.0 HH head wage labourer (% of hhs)56.953.539.620.4

3 Mean Values of and Household Distribution by Candidate Poverty Indicators (SHIREE/HIES/PRCPB) IndicatorsSHIREE (CMS1)HIES (Bottom 5%)HIES (Bottom 10%)PRCPB (Bottom 10%) Household size3.235.115.215.6 Female headed household.33.13.11.20 Total cultivable land (acre).04.13.22.59 Homestead land (acre)--.06.09 Total operated land (acre)--.391.22 Livestock.08-.31- Poultry.01-.61- Bamboo--.22- Timber--.30- Total non-land asset value3446,6148,8052,457 Access to electricity4.9-8.05.0 Poor roof material (% of hhs)27.1-22.219.3 Access to sanitary toilet (% of hhs)4.117.524.238.9 HH head illiterate (% of hhs)78.981.179.562.3 HH head primary complete and above (%) 9.7-8.39.8 Spouse illiterate (% of hhs)70.4-82.061.1 Spouse primary complete and above (%) 15.0-5.79.5 HH head wage labourer (% of hhs)64.363.556.944.1

4 Probit Model for the Extreme Poverty (Bottom 10%) Indicators IndicatorsCoefficientsSignificant Level Household size.13.00 Female headed household.24.01 Total cultivable land (acre)-.12.00 Livestock.04.47 Poultry.03.54 Bamboo.08.21 Timber.17.00 Total non-land asset value-.001.00 Access to electricity-.56.00 Poor roof material (% of hhs).20.00 Access to sanitary toilet (% of hhs)-.15.00 HH head illiterate (% of hhs).05.50 HH head primary complete and above (%)-.12.24 Spouse illiterate (% of hhs).02.80 Spouse primary complete and above (%)-.09.41 HH head wage labourer (% of hhs).28.00

5 OLS Regression for Per Capita Expenditure IndicatorsCoefficientsSignificant Level Household size-81.96.00 Female headed household217.69.00 Total cultivable land (acre)87.15.00 Livestock-44.38.05 Poultry-22.21.32 Bamboo13.34.58 Timber-35.51.12 Total non-land asset value.004.00 Access to electricity271.18.00 Poor roof material (% of hhs)-88.82.00 Access to sanitary toilet (% of hhs)213.04.00 HH head illiterate (% of hhs)-104.51.00 HH head primary complete and above (%)101.00.00 Spouse illiterate (% of hhs)49.86.09 Spouse primary complete and above (%)32.48.38 HH head wage labourer (% of hhs)-150.04.00

6 Factor Scores in Principal Component Analysis (Component 1) Indicators Household size.13 Female headed household-.03 Total cultivable land (acre).29 Livestock.12 Poultry.11 Bamboo.19 Timber.20 Total non-land asset value.33 Access to electricity.24 Poor roof material (% of hhs)-.16 Access to sanitary toilet (% of hhs).27 HH head illiterate (% of hhs)-.37 HH head primary complete and above (%).38 Spouse illiterate (% of hhs)-.27 Spouse primary complete and above (%).31 HH head wage labourer (% of hhs).29

7 Comparison of Significance of Poverty Indicators by Different Models IndicatorsProbitOLSPCASig in All Household sizeYYYYYY Female headed householdYY- Total cultivable land (acre)YYYYYY Livestock-YY Poultry--Y Bamboo--Y TimberY-Y Total non-land asset valueYYYYYY Access to electricityYYYYYY Poor roof material (% of hhs)YY- Access to sanitary toilet (% of hhs)YYYYYY HH head illiterate (% of hhs)-Y- HH head primary complete and above (%) -YY Spouse illiterate (% of hhs)--- Spouse primary complete and above (%) --Y HH head wage labourer (% of hhs)Yy-YYY

8 Distribution of Households by Household Size and Poverty Status Household SizeSHIREEHIES Bottom 10%HIES Ex-poor (lpl)PRCPB (Bottom 10%) 1-2 members34.83.64.64.1 3-4 members45.133.133.928.8 5 or more members20.063.361.567.1 Total100.0

9 Distribution of Households by Cultivable Land and Poverty Status Land OwnershipSHIREEHIES Bottom 10%HIES Ex-poor (lpl)PRCPB (Bottom 10%) Absolutely landless (no land at all) 84.468.564.4- Functionally landless (up to.50 acre) 0.219.420.062.3 Marginal farmer (.51-1.00 acre) 15.46.08.124.6 Small/medium/large farmer (over 1.00) -6.17.513.1 Total100.0

10 Distribution of Households by Non-land Asset and Poverty Status Non-land Asset Holding (value in Taka) SHIREEBottom 10%HIES Ex-poor (lpl)PRCPB (Bottom 10%) No or very little asset holding (<8,806) 99.767.558.640.1 Poor asset holding (8,806- 20,000) 0.319.423.028.8 Moderate asset holding (20,001-32,000) -8.110.816.1 High asset holding (over 32,000) -5.07.615.0 Total100.0

11 Distribution of Households by Access to Electricity and Poverty Status Households’ Access to Electricity SHIREEBottom 10%HIES Ex-poor (lpl)PRCPB (Bottom 10%) No95.191.788.682.8 Yes4.98.311.417.2 Total100.0

12 Distribution of Households by Access to Sanitary Toilet and Poverty Status Households’ Access to Sanitary Toilet SHIREEBottom 10%HIES Ex-poor (lpl)PRCPB (Bottom 10%) No96.375.8 61.1 Yes3.724.2 38.9 Total100.0

13 Distribution of Households by Employment Status of the HH Head and Poverty Status Employment Status of the HH Head SHIREEBottom 10%HIES Ex-poor (lpl)PRCPB (Bottom 10%) Wage labourer64.357.053.544.1 Others35.743.046.555.9 Total100.0

14 What do we get from the analyses presented above? THREE indicators may be taken into consideration in combination to identify the extreme-poor households as follows: - Land ownership (cultivable): Not more than.50 acre; - Total non-land asset: Not more than Taka 20,000; and - Employment status: At best wage laborer

15 Distribution of Households That Satisfy the Above Criteria Criteria % of Total Households (HIES 2005) Average monthly per capita expenditure Expenditure Taka/person/day Satisfy all three26.177425.38 Satisfy at least two57.199532.62 Satisfy at least one78.5127741.87

16 Distribution of Households That Satisfy the Above Criteria (contd.) CriteriaBottom 10% (HIES 2005) Ex-poor (lpl) (HIES 2005) SHIREE (CMS1) Satisfy all three52.347.452.3 Satisfy at least two84.879.894.4 Satisfy at least one94.692.25.6

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