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Single Hull Tankers Phase-out and conversion Nicholas Fistes Chairman, INTERTANKO Dalian, 6 November 2008 World shipping (China) summit 2008
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INTERTANKO MISSION To provide leadership to the Tanker Industry in serving the world with safe, environmentally sound and efficient seaborne transportation of oil, gas and chemical products. VISION FOR THE TANKER INDUSTRY A responsible, sustainable, respected Tanker Industry, committed to continuous improvement and constructively influencing its future. THE POSEIDON CHALLENGE COMMITTMENT - to continuous improvement - to working with all partners - striving to achieve the goals of: Zero fatalities, Zero pollution, Zero detentions
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World oil demand mbd 65 70 75 80 85 90 199319941995 199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007 20082009
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Oil demand by area mbd Source: BP/IEA
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Oil consumption per capita (2008) Litres per year 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 2,100 2,400 2,700 3,000 USA JapanUKEuropeRussia China
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Chinese oil imports (Approx 90% from Middle East in 2008) Source: BP Review/IEA mbd 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 19851986198719881989 1990199119921993199419951996199719981999 2000 2001 200220032004 2005 200620072008 Products Crude
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The importance of oil tanker transportation World Oil Consumption 4.0 billion ts per year Transported by sea 2.6 billion ts per year 60% transported by sea - of which 8% to China
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Global Financial Crisis Fleet Development & Seaborne Oil Trade Oil tanker fleet m dwt Source: INTERTANKO, Fearnleys Seaborne oil trade bn tonne miles
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Tanker fleet growth m dwt number
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The tanker market facing Financial and economic “crisis” Abating demand Demand primarily powered by China Probable cancellation of contracts Increasing fleet 2009-2011 Scrapping up … … as conversions to dry bulk halted
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Global Financial Crisis Tanker Fleet Removals Source: INTERTANKO m dwt Conversions 2005200620072008 2009 Small 2 0 13 23 Aframax 0 4 19 14 Suezmax 0 6 13 9 VLCC 2 9 15 30 ? ?
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Investment in new tankers Some $ 370 billion invested since 2000 with the result that 96% of tanker fleet double hulled in 2010* *Assuming only DB/DS tankers continue to trade beyond 2010, some SH tanker will most probably continue until the age of 25 years old
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Single-hull phase-out regulation U.S. OPA 90 DH for new tankers SH phase-out by 2010 (by 2015 LOOP and lightering areas) IMO – MARPOL DH for new tankers SH phase-out from 2005 through 2010 SH phase-out by 25 years or by 2015 (whichever earlier) - subject to flag/port administration IMO – MARPOL 13H Bans HGO as cargo in SH tankers
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SH trading beyond 2010 ? AustraliaNo ChinaNo EU No Mexico No Romania No S KoreaNo* PhilippinesNo* UAE No* (*No official note sent to IMO yet) BahamasYes BarbadosYes Liberia Yes Marshall Isl.Yes Panama FlagYes Japan Yes SingaporeYes India Yes Hong KongYes** (** Max. 20 years old) Flag/Port State positions re MARPOL 13G trading up to the age of 25 years United States N/A (OPA90)
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Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out All tankers > 25,000 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007
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Critical tanker issues Maintaining an international framework of consistent, high standards and regulations Delivering best environmental performance Ensuring availability of qualified and motivated seafarers (and quality ships) to ensure high quality and environmental friendly tanker transportation
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“Proud of our People” Human Resources Our greatest asset
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Thank you 谢谢大家 For more information, please visit: www.intertanko.com www.poseidonchallenge.com www.shippingfacts.com www.maritimefoundation.com
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Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out 25,000 – 59,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007
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Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Panamaxes 60,000 – 79,000 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007
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Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Aframaxes 80,000 – 119,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007
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Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Suezmaxes 120,000 – 199,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007
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Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out VLCCs 200,000 dwt + m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007
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