1. AP ® Human Geography Workshop Population Dynamics in the Rural Midwest: Causes and Consequences Tim Strauss Department of Geography University of Northern Iowa 89 th Annual Meeting of the National Council for Geographic Education Kansas City, Missouri, October 22, 2004 Kansas City, Missouri, October 22, 2004

2. Overview Introduction Introduction Population Trends Population Trends Possible Causes Possible Causes Consequences/Implications Consequences/Implications Conclusion Conclusion

3. etc., etc., etc. Climate Topography Political systems Demographics Religion Language Economic systems Culture Geography can be seen as a complex interaction of different “layers” Human and physical geography. Systematic and regional geography. Introduction: The “Layers” of Geography Systematic Regional

4. Introduction World Regional – regional focus and organization World Regional – regional focus and organization Human Geography – organized by sub-discipline/ layer Human Geography – organized by sub-discipline/ layer Layers often addressed separately Layers often addressed separately Introduction, population, migration, culture, language, religion, agriculture, urban, political, etc. Introduction, population, migration, culture, language, religion, agriculture, urban, political, etc. Importance of interaction across layers Importance of interaction across layers Requires integrated analysis, multidisciplinary approach Requires integrated analysis, multidisciplinary approach Today, using population change as an example Today, using population change as an example Focus on Midwest/Iowa Focus on Midwest/Iowa

5. Population Trends Population Growth by State in the 1990s Population Growth by State in the 1990s

6. Increase 20% or more Population Change, 1990-2000 Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University

7. Population Change, 1990-2000 Increase 10% or more Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University

8. Population Change, 1990-2000 Increase 5% or more Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University

9. Population Change, 1990-2000 + 0.5% + 8.5% + 8.4% + 8.5% + 12.4% + 5.4% + 9.3% + 9.6% + 8.6% + 9.7% + 4.7% + 6.9% Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University Nationwide + 13.2%

10. Population Trends Population Growth by State in the 1990s Population Growth by State in the 1990s Population Growth by State in the 20 th Century Population Growth by State in the 20 th Century

11. Population Change, 1900-2000 Increase 500% or more Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University

12. Population Change, 1900-2000 Increase 100% or more Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University

13. Population Change, 1900-2000 Increase 50% or more Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University

14. Population Trends Population Growth by State in the 1990s Population Growth by State in the 1990s Population Growth by State in the 20 th Century Population Growth by State in the 20 th Century Statewide Population Growth in Iowa Statewide Population Growth in Iowa

15. Projected Population in Iowa Millions Projections by Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2004 Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University

16. Population Trends Population Growth by State in the 1990s Population Growth by State in the 1990s Population Growth by State in the 20 th Century Population Growth by State in the 20 th Century Statewide Population Growth in Iowa Statewide Population Growth in Iowa County-level Changes in Population County-level Changes in Population metropolitan vs. non-metropolitan trends metropolitan vs. non-metropolitan trends

18. Population Change, 1990-2000 IncreasedDecreased 1 dot = 10 persons Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University

19. ISU Census Services Most counties experienced their peak population decades ago Most counties experienced their peak population decades ago metropolitan vs. non-metropolitan pattern metropolitan vs. non-metropolitan pattern

20. The trend is expected to continue

21. Population Trends Population Growth by State in the 1990s Population Growth by State in the 1990s Population Growth by State in the 20 th Century Population Growth by State in the 20 th Century Statewide Population Growth in Iowa Statewide Population Growth in Iowa County-level Changes in Population County-level Changes in Population Components of Demographic Change Components of Demographic Change Birth Rates and Death Rates Birth Rates and Death Rates In- vs. Out-Migration In- vs. Out-Migration

22. Births and Deaths Iowa 1940195019902000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Thousands 198019701960 Births Deaths ISU Census Services

23. Natural Change, 1990–2000 ISU Census Services

24. http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/censr-9.pdf

25. Net Migration in Iowa 1910s 0 1910s 0 1920s-150,000 1920s-150,000 1930s-100,000 1930s-100,000 1940s-180,000 1940s-180,000 1950s-250,000 1950s-250,000 1960s-180,000 1960s-180,000 1970s -60,000 1970s -60,000 1980s-280,000 1980s-280,000 1990s +49,000 1990s +49,000 ISU Census Services

26. http://www.seta.iastate.edu/population/ publications/migration_inout_iowa_95002.pdf Migration largely follows expected patterns - Gravity model - nearby states, large states - South/West vs. East/North

27. http://www.seta.iastate.edu/population/publications /ia_inout_migrant_age_charx_9500.pdf

28. http://www.seta.iastate.edu/population/publications /ia_inout_migrant_age_charx_9500.pdf 1 dot = 2 persons

29. Possible Causes Trends in Agriculture Trends in Agriculture Declining percentage of workforce in farming Declining percentage of workforce in farming Consolidation - Fewer, larger farms Consolidation - Fewer, larger farms

31. d Mark Drabenstott 1998 This Little Piggy Went To Market: Will The New Pork Industry Call the Heartland Home? Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/3q98drab.pdf)

32. Mark Drabenstott 1998 This Little Piggy Went To Market: Will The New Pork Industry Call the Heartland Home? Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/3q98drab.pdf)

35. Possible Causes Trends in Agriculture Trends in Agriculture Migration Preferences Migration Preferences Young adult/student preferences Young adult/student preferences Employment opportunities, incomes, cultural amenities, climate Employment opportunities, incomes, cultural amenities, climate “Co-location” issue “Co-location” issue Metropolitan orientation of college-educated couples Metropolitan orientation of college-educated couples

36. http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/p20-549.pdf

38. Human Geography class: Number of students selecting each state as their most preferred (“Y”) or least preferred (“N”) to live in after graduation

39. Human Geography class: Student responses regarding whether they would like to leave Iowa (=1) or stay in Iowa (=5) after graduation, by home town of the student

40. http://www.seta.iastate.edu/population/publications /ia_in_out_mirrant_ed_attain_charx_9500.pdf

41. Per Capita Income Iowa ISU Census Services 197019752000 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 Thousands 1995199019851980 U.S Iowa

42. Per Capita Income, 1998 ISU Census Services

43. Consequences/Implications Demographic Profile Demographic Profile Age Age

46. Consequences/Implications Demographic Profile Demographic Profile Retail Trade Patterns Retail Trade Patterns

47. Central Place Theory Settlement Pattern - but is the pattern static?

48. Actual Settlement Pattern in Iowa

49. Southwest Iowa, 1934 Grocery Stores Legal Advice Hospitals Discussed in Berry 1988 Market Centers and Retail Location: Theory and Applications Long history of retail trade studies in Iowa

50. Data from the Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program As expected, more retail sales in more populated counties - but what if we do per capita comparisons?

51. Pull Factor = town (or county) per capita retail sales / state per capita retail sales http://www.seta.iastate.edu/retail/publications/seta_retail_guide.pdf

52. Data from the Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program

58. Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita, FY2003 State Sales Per Capita = $9,778 Sales Per Capita Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program

59. Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Pull Factors, FY2003 Pull Factors 0 to 0.50 0.50 to 1.00 1.00 to 2.00 Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program

60. Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Surplus or Leakage, FY2003 Surplus or Leakage -$250 million to -$50 million -$50 million to -$10 million -$10 million to $0 $0 and above (surplus) Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program

61. Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Surplus or Leakage as a % of Potential Sales, FY2003 -14% 7% 13% -30% -38% -14% -30% -10% -36%17% 23% -16% -52% -17% -23% -35% -22% -13% -4% -33% -48% -40% 11% -52% -59% -31% -14% -34% -30% -32% -12% -39% 27% -30% -52% 17% -35% -16% -53% -3% -12% -3% -35% 25% 19% -37% -18% -30% -23% -29% -22% -31% -55% -28% -33% -13% -30% 15% -34% -8% -46% 6% -31% -38% -15% -47% -27% -54% -44% -53% -29% -36% -17%-61% 26% -39% -33% -25% -42% -39% 7%2% -12% -34% -27% 14% -65% -50% -36% -29% -67% -26% -30% 13% -20% -73% 24%-46% -2% LYON SIOUX PLYMOUTH WOODBURY MONONA HARRISON POTTAWATTAMIE MILLS FREMONT PAGETAYLORRINGGOLD DECATUR WAYNE APPANOOSE DAVIS VAN BUREN LEE DES MOINES HENRY JEFFERSON WAPELLO MONROE LUCAS CLARKE UNION ADAMS MONTGOMERY CASSADAIR MADISON WARREN MARION MAHASKA KEOKUK WASHINGTON LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT CLINTON JACKSON JONES CEDAR LINN JOHNSON BENTON IOWA TAMA POWESHIEKJASPER MARSHALL STORY POLK DALLAS BOONEGREENE GUTHRIE AUDUBON CARROLLCRAWFORD SHELBY IDA SAC CHEROKEE BUENA VISTA POCAHONTASHUMBOLDT KOSSUTH CALHOUN WEBSTER HAMILTON HARDINGRUNDY BLACK HAWK BUCHANAN DELAWARE DUBUQUE CLAYTON ALLAMAKEE WINNESHIEK FAYETTE HOWARD MITCHELL WORTH WINNEBAGO HANCOCK CERRO GORDO FLOYDCHICKASAW BREMER BUTLER FRANKLIN WRIGHT EMMET PALO ALTO DICKINSON CLAY OSCEOLA O'BRIEN Surplus or Leakage, % -80% to -40% -40$ to -20% -20% to 0% 0% and above Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program

62. Consequences/Implications Demographic Profile Demographic Profile Retail Trade Patterns Retail Trade Patterns School Consolidation School Consolidation

63. Certified and Projected K-12 Enrollment*, Iowa 199519971999200020022004 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Thousands Certified Projected * Includes only public schools ISU Census Services

64. School Consolidation Decline in number of school districts Decline in number of school districts Early 1900s: 12,000 (schoolhouses) Early 1900s: 12,000 (schoolhouses) By 1932: 4,875 By 1932: 4,875 By 1996: 501 By 1996: 501 Now: 367 Now: 367 Proposal to merge districts with a high school having <200 students Proposal to merge districts with a high school having <200 students 147 such districts in Iowa 147 such districts in Iowa Concerns about access to advanced math, science, and other classes Concerns about access to advanced math, science, and other classes Waterloo/Cedar Falls Courier, 10/2/04 (www.wcfcourier.com) Quad-City Times (www.qctimes.com)

67. Change in Population 17 Years of Age or Younger, 1990–2000 ISU Census Services

68. Consequences/Implications Demographic Profile Demographic Profile Retail Trade Patterns Retail Trade Patterns School Consolidation School Consolidation Political Balance Political Balance Effect on urban/rural issues in state-level politics Effect on urban/rural issues in state-level politics

69. National-level shifts in the political balance

70. State-level shifts in the political balance: Iowa Senate

71. State-level shifts in the political balance: Iowa House

72. Consequences/Implications Demographic Profile Demographic Profile Retail Trade Patterns Retail Trade Patterns School Consolidation School Consolidation Political Balance Political Balance County Consolidation County Consolidation

73. County Consolidation County boundaries same since 1871 County boundaries same since 1871 Designed for one-day round trip from farm to courthouse Designed for one-day round trip from farm to courthouse Brookings Institution recommended county consolidation Brookings Institution recommended county consolidation Suggested 25 instead of 99 counties Suggested 25 instead of 99 counties Des Moines Register, 3/21/1999 (www.dmregister.com)

76. 1900: Polk County population (82,624) exceeds that of 7 smallest counties (74,977) Data from the Des Moines Register, 3/21/1999 (www.dmregister.com)

77. 1930: Polk County population (172,837) exceeds that of 14 smallest counties (163,721) Data from the Des Moines Register, 3/21/1999 (www.dmregister.com)

78. 1998: Polk County population (359,826) exceeds that of 37 smallest counties (354,519) Data from the Des Moines Register, 3/21/1999 (www.dmregister.com)

79. County Consolidation Brookings Institution study was done in 1933 Brookings Institution study was done in 1933 Since then, 64 counties have lost population, 35 have gained Since then, 64 counties have lost population, 35 have gained Consolidation is not a popular idea Consolidation is not a popular idea Community identity and vitality Community identity and vitality Political balance Political balance Des Moines Register, 3/21/1999 (www.dmregister.com)

80. Consequences/Implications Demographic Profile Demographic Profile Retail Trade Patterns Retail Trade Patterns School Consolidation School Consolidation Political Balance Political Balance County Consolidation County Consolidation Patterns of Religious Affiliation Patterns of Religious Affiliation

81. Data and Graph: James F. Fryman UNI Geography Dept. Iowa is more Methodist, more Lutheran, less Catholic, and less Baptist than the US as a whole. - Iowa is normally split between Lutheran and Methodist regions on maps of US religious affiliation

82. Denominational group by metropolitan vs. non-metropolitan location Denominational group by metropolitan vs. non-metropolitan location e.g., historically, Methodists more rural than US population as a whole e.g., historically, Methodists more rural than US population as a whole Zelinsky, Wilbur 1961, An Approach to the Religious Geography of the United States: Patterns of Church Membership in 1952, Annals of the AAG.

83. Data and Map: James F. Fryman UNI Geography Dept. Generally, growth in numbers of churches in metropolitan areas, declines in rural areas

84. American Religion Data Archive (www.thearda.com) Methodists have a largely rural spatial distribution in Iowa

85. Data and Graph: James F. Fryman UNI Geography Dept. Methodists: decline in affiliation, 1950-1990 - Effect of rural orientation? What processes are involved? Roman Catholics: increase in affiliation, 1950-1990 - Effect of metro vs. non-metro and regional (e.g., NE Iowa) orientation? - Effect of in-migration?

86. Conclusions The above trends cannot be considered in isolation from each other The above trends cannot be considered in isolation from each other Relevance to APHG curriculum Relevance to APHG curriculum Links across sections of the course outline Links across sections of the course outline Cause-and-effect relationships Cause-and-effect relationships Synthesis Synthesis Process-oriented analysis Process-oriented analysis Changes in patterns over time Changes in patterns over time Scale Scale