1. 2015-2016 Winter/Spring Outlook Derrick Weitlich National Weather Service Melbourne Central Florida Prescribed Fire Council Annual Meeting September 25, 2015

2. Central Florida Climate Central Florida Climate Wet Dry Average Monthly Temp/Precip Normals for Central Florida

3. 90 day Rainfall Departures 90 day Rainfall Departures

4. Current KBDI Values Current KBDI Values 30 Day Rainfall Departures Detailed KBDI (4km Resolution)

5. Drought Monitor Drought Monitor

6. Dry Season Forecast Dry Season Forecast How does El Niño influence Florida Weather and why all of these buzz words about this event?

7. El Niño-Southern Oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation La Niña is characterized by cooler than normal (≤ -0.5 °C) SST’s in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters. El Niño is characterized by warmer than normal (≥ +0.5 °C) SST’s in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters. La Niña is characterized by cooler than normal (≤ -0.5 °C) SST’s in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters. El Niño is characterized by warmer than normal (≥ +0.5 °C) SST’s in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific waters.

8. Niño Regions Niño Regions

9. Current/Forecast ENSO Conditions Current/Forecast ENSO Conditions Well above normal SSTs greater than 2°C above normal are occurring over the east central Pacific El Niño conditions are expected to continue through Spring 2016 as a strong El Niño event (possibly record breaking) with peak 3 month SST departures in excess of 2.0°C. Well above normal SSTs greater than 2°C above normal are occurring over the east central Pacific El Niño conditions are expected to continue through Spring 2016 as a strong El Niño event (possibly record breaking) with peak 3 month SST departures in excess of 2.0°C.

10. El Ni ñ o Impacts El Ni ñ o Impacts L

11. LightningDensityENSOPhase La Niña El Niño

13. Osceola/Orange/Seminole Feb 23, 1998 3 F3: 158-206 mph 42 Fatalities Lake County Feb 2, 2007 2 EF3: 155-165 mph 21 Fatalities

14. El Ni ñ o Impacts (Precip) El Ni ñ o Impacts (Precip) 1957-1958 1972-19731982-1983 1965-1966 1997-1998 Precipitation Anomalies of the 5 strongest El Niños on Record (November-April)

15. El Ni ñ o Impacts (Temperature) El Ni ñ o Impacts (Temperature) 1957-1958 1972-19731982-1983 1965-1966 1997-1998 Temperature Anomalies of the 5 strongest El Niños on Record (November-April)

16. Additional Impact Information Additional Impact Information ENSO phase shows little predictability in the number of overall freeze events. However, stronger El Niños tend to lessen the number of extreme freezes across the region. Even the strongest El Niños do not continuously impact Florida’s weather during a dry season. Long dry periods can still occur between high impact storm systems. ENSO’s impact lessens into the late Spring and usually has little influence on the start date of the wet season. (1998 exception?) ENSO phase shows little predictability in the number of overall freeze events. However, stronger El Niños tend to lessen the number of extreme freezes across the region. Even the strongest El Niños do not continuously impact Florida’s weather during a dry season. Long dry periods can still occur between high impact storm systems. ENSO’s impact lessens into the late Spring and usually has little influence on the start date of the wet season. (1998 exception?)

17. NOAA CPC Dec-Feb Rainfall NOAA CPC Dec-Feb Rainfall CPC Rainfall Forecast for Central Florida (DJF): -70% chance for above normal precipitation -27% chance of near normal precipitation -3% chance of below normal precipitation CPC Rainfall Forecast for Central Florida (DJF): -70% chance for above normal precipitation -27% chance of near normal precipitation -3% chance of below normal precipitation

18. NOAA CPC Dec-Feb Temperature NOAA CPC Dec-Feb Temperature CPC Temp Forecast for Central Florida (DJF): -40% chance for below normal temperatures -33% chance of near normal temperatures -27% chance of above normal temperatures CPC Temp Forecast for Central Florida (DJF): -40% chance for below normal temperatures -33% chance of near normal temperatures -27% chance of above normal temperatures

19. NWS MLB Dry Season Forecast NWS MLB Dry Season Forecast http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=mlbnino

20. Stay Updated! Stay Updated! Keep up to date on the evolving El Nino and Temp/Precip outlooks for Florida -www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=mlbnino – Local Dry Season Forecast -www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov – ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and 1 & 3 month Temp/Precip outlooks Keep up to date on the evolving El Nino and Temp/Precip outlooks for Florida -www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=mlbnino – Local Dry Season Forecast -www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov – ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and 1 & 3 month Temp/Precip outlooks