1. Non-accelerator experiments NMH & CPV Results expected in 2022-2026: PINGU, ORCA atm. neutrinosNMH JUNO, RENO-50reactor neutrinosNMH INO atm. neutrinosNMH Results expected in 2026-2030: Hyper-Katm. neutrinosNMH + CPV

2. Non-oscillation programs PINGU and ORCA: – SN neutrinos (just time profile and mean -energy) – low-energy GRB – WIMPs, Exotic particles (Magn. Monopoles etc.) JUNO and RENO-50: – p-decay – SN neutrinos – Geo-neutrinos Hyper-K: – Solar neutrinos – p-decay – SN neutrinos (incl. relic SN) – WIMPs, Exotics (magnetic monopoles etc.) INO: – Atm. nu and anti-nu separately – Precision study of HE muon energy loss – SN neutrinos – WIMPs, Exotics (Magnetic Monopoles etc.) DUNE: – p-decay – SN neutrinos (incl. relic neutrinos) – Solar neutrinos

3. PINGU and ORCA Predecessors – Amanda (turned of 2009) – IceCube with DeepCore Part of IceCube-Gen2 – PINGU – High-energy extension – Surface veto Predecessor – ANTARES Part of KM3NeT – ORCA – ARCA for high energy astronomy Can detect cosmic neutrinos ! Can do competetive oscilllation physics

4. Design PINGU  40 new strings + 9 old strings  60  80-96 DOM/string ORCA  115 strings  18 mDOMs/string

5. Design PINGU  40 new strings + 9 old strings  60  80-96 DOM/string  Effective mass ~ 2.5 Mt (5 GeV) 3.5 Mt (10 GeV)  Construction 2020-2023  Cost ~ 70 M$ ORCA  115 strings  18 mDOMs/string  Effective mass ~ 2.5 Mt ~ 3.5 Mt  Construction 2017-2020  Cost ~ 50 M€

6. Design PINGU  40 new strings + 9 old strings  60  80-96 DOM/string  Effective mass ~ 2.5 Mt (5 GeV) 3.5 Mt (10 GeV)  Construction 2020-2023  Cost ~ 70 M$ ORCA  115 strings  18 mDOMs/string  Effective mass ~ 2.5 Mt ~ 3.5 Mt  Construction 2017-2020  Cost ~ 50 M€ Chance to get the first 3  effect on NMH from a single experiment in 2023

7. Significance vs. time From PINGU LoI Need both tracks and cascades 3  after 3 years for sin²  23 ~ 0.4 3  after 2 years for sin²  23 ~ 0.5 3  after 1 year for sin²  23 ~ 0.6 Would improve with better input on cross section and spectral shape Would improve with better analysis, detector optimization Could slightly worsen due to systematics

8. Working on better understanding of systematic effects Expect more precise values for  m² 13, sin²  13 and sin²  23 from reactor expts, T2K, NOvA, DeepCore, … Expect more information on cross sections from accelerator experiments (interesting range 2 – 20 GeV) Systematics from PINGU LoI Impact on 1-year significance (1.75  )

9. Detector specific systematics Example Flavor identification: ORCA: less light scattering, homogeneous medium  better pattern recogniction  better flavor ID below 10 GeV PINGU prelim. Example downward  veto, extrapolation to higher energies: – PINGU is embedded in DeepCore – DeepCore is embedded in IceCube – Both act as extremely efficient veto against downward muons – Atm spectrum is measured with high statistics/accuracy toward high energies  normalization Complementary systematics due to detection medium and to detector configuration!

10. Conclusion on ORCA and PINGU PINGU and ORCA have very different systematics – high complementarity! Both with ~ 3  after 3 years PINGU and ORCA will continue their successful cooperation on systematic effects and significance calculation Prototype results from 6 strings ORCA expected in 2016/17 Milestone 2017/18: Comparative process on science and technology, in particular the performance of prototypes and systematics. Very likely that two detectors at 2 different sites turn out to be the optimum approach.