1. Status and Plans for the RSA LAPS/MM5 Implementation – July 2005 John McGinley, Steve Albers*, Ed Szoke*, Dan Birkenheuer NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory *In collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

2. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Overview Review of System Design Case Studies - Verification Work Accomplished Since 2004 TIM Recommended Schedule Issues Discussion

3. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO System Design Review Basic requirements – New 24-h forecast every 6 hours – High spatial resolution (1 km objective) – Support launch weather operations and range safety requirements for dispersion modeling – Integrate with display system (AWIPS) Trades considered – Size of domain and nesting options – Forecast length vs. scale predictability – Computational resources vs. cost-benefit – Future upgrade path

4. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Basic Solution LAPS coupled with MM5 NWP model Use diabatic initialization (“hot start”) Utilize parallel code on Linux cluster Integrate with AWIPS in a modular fashion

5. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO AWIPS Integration AWIPS Data Server AWIPS Workstation Modeling Server NOAAPORTLDAD LAPS Anal/Fcst Grids Obs/Radar/Sat/NCEP

6. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Hardware Configuration Linux Cluster Modeling Server – 1 master/8 compute nodes (18 processors) – Dual P-III 1GHz, 1GB RAM on each node – 60GB RAID array on front-end – Myrinet inter-connect Interacts with AWIPS DS via NFS LAPS analyses and 2-h MM5 update forecast run on master node 6-hourly MM5 and post-processing use compute nodes

7. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO LAPS Domain Configuration Triple Nest Domain – 97x97 – 10.0/3.3/1.1 km  x – 10km for Model Init – 3.3/1.1 for NowCasting LAPS Runs – Hourly analyses – 41 Pressure levels – Runs at H+20 min – Available at H+30 min

8. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO RSA LAPS Data Sources National Data (NOAAPORT SBN Feed) – Eta (Grids 211, 212, and 215) – Regional narrowband WSR-88D reflectivity – GOES imagery (Vis, SWIR, 2 LWIR) – MDCARS – RAOBs – METARs/Ship Reports/Buoys – National Profiler Network

9. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO RSA LAPS Data Sources Sea Surface Temperature Data – NCEP internet FTP feed – GFS model

10. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO RSA LAPS Data Sources Local Data (via LDAD) – Local wideband WSR-88D (Z and Vr) – Local ASOS Observations – 50/915 MHz Wind Profilers – MiniSODAR Wind Profiles – RASS – Tower observations – AMPS Soundings – Local MM5 forecast grids

11. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO MM5 Forecast Model MM5 v3 used for RSA application – Upgraded to release 3.5 in June 2002 – FSL modifications for diabatic initialization – FSL-developed runs scripts suitable for operations Concurrent post-processing – Supports multiple output formats – Allows viewing on workstation as model runs – Hourly temporal output

12. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO MM5 Forecast Model Two configurations for RSA – “Update” run to provide first guess for LAPS Used for “downscaling” national model Runs every hour out to 2 h on master node (serial) Initialized with national first guess (Eta forecast) and NCEP SST Domain 1 (10km) only Not displayed on AWIPS – Forecast run used for operational forecasts Diabatically intialized with LAPS Runs every 6 hours Triple nest (10/3/1.1) with forecasts out to 24/12/9

13. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO MM5 Run Configuration (Development System Config) 30-second timestep MRF PBL Scheme Explicit Schultz II microphysics on all domains 2-way feedback between nests Domain 1 initialized with LAPS (diabatic) Domains 2 and 3 interpolated from parent Lateral boundaries provided by NCEP Eta

14. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO 0-3 h QPF Verification

15. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO 0-6 h QPF Verification

16. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO 0-12 h QPF Verification

17. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO JAX WRF QPF Verification 0600 UTC +3, 6, and 9-h QPF Verification, 1 Oct 03 thru 4 May 04

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19. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Vertical Level Configuration 41  Levels

20. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO LAPS-MM5 Production Cycle National Model Forecast (Eta via SBN) MM5 Update Cycle (10km) 1-h Forecast for First Guess 2-9 h Forecast for IC/LBC 10-km LAPS Analysis 3.3-km LAPS Analysis 1.1-km LAPS Analysis Hourly Cycle MM5 Forecast (Every 6 h) - 10km to 24h - 3.3 to 12h - 1.1 to 9h Observations via SBN and LDAD Diabatic Init. Cond. Lateral Boundary Conditions

21. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO MM5 Forecast Run Timeline 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Valid Hour 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Actual Hour All 3 Domains (2.3:1 Ratio) 2 Domains (7.8:1 Ratio) 1 Domain (36:1 Ratio) Run time based on: 12 processors for model 1 processor for each post job

22. Cape Canaveral 6-hour QPF on 1-km Grid and Radar Verification 9 Feb 04

23. RSA Examples Eastern Range June 8, 2005

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33. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Series of plots for 15z 10 km run, model reflectivity is heavy cyan contours, observed is image

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40. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Analysis and beginning of the 21z/10 km run. Doesn’t get echoes to start.

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42. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO 15z 3 km run

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47. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO 15z 1 km run; at 1 km cells do develop faster

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53. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Next 2 are from 09z run. Seeing if it got the overnight land breeze line off the east coast.

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55. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Build History RSA LAPS/MM5 V1: Dec 2001 – Initial installation at WR RSA LAPS/MM5 V2: Aug 2002 – Initial installation at ER – Included “easy” install CD, provided to LMMS RSA LAPS/MM5 V2.1: July 2003 – Delivered to LMMS on CD RSA LAPS/MM5 V2.2: July 2004 – Delivered to LMMS on CD

56. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Current Status Current RSA status – Fully adapted to AS 2.1 OS – Testing criteria delivered to LM – Model status Improved Schultz microphysics Shallow Cu scheme

57. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Current Activities Current activities – Data failure test simulated at FSL /data/fxa disk mount disabled for ~40 minutes Model forecast continued to run with degraded analysis Analyses were interrupted, changes since made to help prevent this

58. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Next few month deliverables Deliverables (next few months) – New LAPS/MM5 build in July 2005 Accommodates AS 2.1/2.3 Deliver installation CD Test CD installation needed? (what procedure)?

59. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Future Deliverables – MM5 to WRF transition – New modeler on staff July 18, 2005

60. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Deficiencies in Build V2.1 Deficiencies: – TKE PBL schemes in MM5 under-predict diurnal temperature range – Microphysics require saturation in cloudy grid boxes

61. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Accomplishments Since June 2004 TIM LAPS Analysis Improvements – QC flag codes 13-20 now interpreted – Edit flag now checked for AMPS data – Dense SODAR levels processing improved – Met TOWER QC now applied

62. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Accomplishments Since June 2004 TIM LAPS Analysis Improvements – Surface analysis parameters adjusted based on study of Hurricane Charlie – 3-D reflectivity mapping improved to minimize artifacts in high-resolution domains – Moisture analysis component changes to use GOES gradient structure

63. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO LAPS Moisture Variational Step now Relies on Satellite Gradients Other aspects of the moisture analysis have not changed The International H 2 O Project identified problems with satellite derived product moisture – (too moist, or more specifically moist biased) Two approaches are now underway to address this problem – Correct the bias problem in the GOES moisture data – Modify the analysis system to ignore this moisture bias by using moisture gradients from this source

64. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO The new approach is to utilize only satellite gradients in the analysis Old method New method Better structure Less moist bias

65. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Accomplishments Since June 2004 TIM MM5 Forecast Improvements – Implementing daily GFS SST analyses Provides better forecasts than “pseudo-SST” Provides a first guess for LAPS SST analysis – Added TKE diagnosis to post-processor Allows use of better MRF PBL while still meeting need for TKE field for HYPACT integration – Updated scripts for new OS (Nov 2004) – Implemented new Schultz II microphysics – Deactivated K-F cumulus parameterization

66. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Accomplishments Since June 2004 TIM Verification Package – Surface observations vs. MM5 forecast – Requires MySQL database – Interactive query capability Command line or web based User customization options – Being set up on development system for 10- km MM5 grids – Still testing interface scripts

67. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Recommended Schedule Deliver LAPS/RSA v3.0 – July 2005 – CD delivery to LMMS with installation scripts – Includes all changes discussed previously Deliver LAPS/RSA v3.1 – Jan 2006? – Incorporate WRF forecast model – 30-minute analysis cycle – Adds AMPS ingest – improved verification package

68. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Outstanding Issues FSL access to RTAMPS data Complete real-time data preferable to partial archived –Helps evaluate spatial distribution and QC performance Analysis bulls-eyes and QC –Land/sea weighting function NOAAPORT buoy data timing

69. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Outstanding Issues (cont) Additional SST testing Ingest /Analysis of Soil sensor data Interface to GOES Sounder on NOAAPORT? 30-min LAPS cycle

70. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Narrowband / Soil Narrowband (Level-III) radar – AWIPS to LAPS NetCDF converter needs repair Soil moisture – Overall Soil Moisture currently in Big File – Add other soil related fields? – What soil observations are at Ranges? – Data formats?

71. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Verification Verification package – Can run on more powerful headnode Requires another software package (MySQL) Web server running on headnode for interactive displays Forecasters use web browser to access verification info Product reliability monitor will be included

72. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Model output to AMU – Exportation of “bigfile” via ftp or LDAD – Multiple options possible Should model grids be enlarged? – More computer power may be needed for this

73. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, CO SBN data limitations – Partially mitigated by use of NCEP SST – LMMS EDS project should fully mitigate

74. 15 June 2005RSA TIM – Boulder, COSummary July build on-track – Improved LAPS analysis with additional local data and improved algorithms – Better forecasts from new microphysics, better SST Apache server installed for verification display at ranges Continue planning for future

75. Discussion?