1. Update February 11, 2015

2. Typical TFCC Usage Pattern (2013)

3. 2014 Precipitation at TWF 4.8 inches in August (average is 0.48 inches)

4. August precipitation

5. 2014 Usage Pattern

6. 2014 Storage Diversion June 18

7. Forecasting Models Predictand Date of Forecast March 15April 15May 15June 15 Storage Date Variables HeiseQU P_AftonWY HeiseQU 02N37E02ABA1 SpringCr HeiseQU 08S24E31DAC1 09S25E03CAC1 P_AftonCY Snow_AF Statistics R 2 adj = 0.801 SE est = 11.0 days R 2 adj = 0.755 SE est = 12.2 days R 2 adj = 0.795 SE est = 11.2 days R 2 adj = 0.827 SE est = 11.6 days Natural Flow Diversion after Storage Date Variables P_Afton_WY P_Ahti HeiseQU 03N37E12BDB1 08S25E36DAA1 09S25E03CAC1 HeiseQU 02N37E02ABA1 09S25E03CAC1 SpringCr HeiseQU 08S25E36DAA1 Snow_AF HeiseQU Statistics R 2 adj = 0.752 SE est = 46,373 af R 2 adj = 0.709 SE est = 50,178 af R 2 adj = 0.747 SE est = 46,846 af R 2 adj = 0.753 SE est = 52,017 af Diversion Deficit Variables P_Alty, P_Riwi P_Rxgi HeiseQU 02N37E02ABA1 09S25E03CAC1 SpringCr Snow_AF HeiseQU 09S25E03CAC1 08S24E31DAC1 SpringCr P_AftonCY ReservoirFill 02N37E02ABA1 60d avg P_Afton ReservoirFill Statistics R 2 adj = 0.798 SE est = 28,278 af R 2 adj = 0.787 SE est = 31,403 af R 2 adj = 0.787 SE est = 31,403 af R 2 adj = 0.817 SE est = 30,285 af Calibration period: 1991-2010

8. Storage Date Prediction July 2 July 10 - 15 Calibration Verification

9. Natural Flow Diversion Prediction 399,400af 236,000 af Calibration Verification 344,200af

10. Deficit Prediction 240,118 af 97,600 af Calibration Verification 246,780 af 161,000 af

11. Comparison (Preliminary Numbers) Storage Date Natural Flow Diversion after Storage Date ActualModels July 10 (Mar) July 2July 13 (Apr) July 14 (May) July 15 (Jun) [ June prediction based on avg of 3 models] ActualModels 399,442 (Mar) 344,200 ac-ft269,500 (Apr) 280,800 ac-ft290,400 (May) without August storms 236,000 (Jun)

12. Comparison (preliminary numbers) Deficit ActualModel - best 159,500 (Mar) 97,600 ac-ft240,100 (Apr) 161,000 ac-ft196,446 (May) without August storms 246,800 (Jun)

13. Comparison of Heise regression with Alternate Calibration Verification

15. ESPAM 2.1 Reach Gains - Nr Blackfoot to Neeley

16. ESPAM 2.1 Reach Gains – Neeley to Minidoka

17. Conclusion / Next Steps Re-calibrate models with latest data and with wells that were not discontinued in 2010