1. College of Engineering Discovery with Purpose www.engineering.iastate.edu Iowa State University WESEP REU June 11, 2012 Wind & energy James McCalley (jdm@iastate.edu)jdm@iastate.edu

2. College of Engineering Homework 2 DOE20by2030 report: Full report: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/41869.pdf Summary www.nrel.gov/docs/fy11osti/49975.pdf

3. College of Engineering Overview (focus mainly on US) Preliminary energy concepts Background on wind power growth Policy issues for wind energy Wind energy in context Grand challenge questions 3

4. College of Engineering Some preliminaries Power: MW=1341HP. Energy: MWhr=3.413MMbtu (10 6 btu); 1btu=1055joules E=P×T Run 1.5 MW turbine at 1.5 MW for 2 hrs: 3 MWhrs. Run 1.5 MW turbine at 0.5 MW for 2 hrs: 1MWhrs 4 Power, PTime, TEnergy, ECapacity, P rated Time, t  Power, P(t) 1.5 MW If P varies with t: Capacity factor: A lawnmower engine is 3HP (2.2kW or 0.0022 MW). Typical car engine is 200 HP (150kw or 0.15MW). Typical home demands 1.2kW at any given moment, on avg. 1MW=10 6 watts  10 6 w/1200w=833 homes powered by a MW. Ames peak demand is about 126MW. The US has 1,121,000MW of power plant capacity. 1 gallon gasoline=0.0334MWhr; Typical home uses 11000kWhrs=11MWhrs in 1 year (about 1.2kW×8760hrs). 1 ton coal=6MWhrs. Actual annual energy production as a percentage of annual energy production at P rated

5. College of Engineering Worldwide Source: RenewableS 2011, Global Status Report 5

6. College of Engineering Worldwide Source: BTM Consultants, www.btm.dk/reports/world+market+update+2010 6

7. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US US Generation mix Wind & renewables are 3.6% by energy. Source: AWEA 2010 Annual Wind Report 7

8. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US U.S. Annual & Cumulative Wind Power Capacity Growth Source: AWEA 2010 Annual Wind Report 8 But what happened in 2010, 2011?

9. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US Source: AWEA 2011 Fourth Quarter Market Report 9 2010 is different! And 2011 is not much better. Why?

10. College of Engineering Why was wind growth in 2010/2011 less than in previous years? Poor 2008-2009 economy: Less willingness to load, to build projects Less power demand! 10 Declining natural gas prices

11. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US Percentage of New Capacity Additions. Source: AWEA 2010 Annual Wind Report 11 N. GAS WIND

12. College of Engineering 12 Cur US/Can nat gas production= 26Tcf/yr Proven reserves=260Tcf: R/P=10yrs Prove+unprove reserves=2372Tcf: R/P=91

13. College of Engineering 13 Risks of a very high gas-electric future: Lifetime: Infrastructure investments live for 40-60 years and are not easy to “turn” once developed. Diversification: Today’s national energy system portfolio consists primarily of electric (coal, nuclear, gas, renewables), heating/industrial (gas), & transportation (petroleum). A high gas-electric future, with transportation electrification, will decrease portfolio diversification, creating a national vulnerability. Cost: Is heavy gas-electric investment the lowest cost option in terms of long- term {investment+production}? Depletability: R/P ratios 10-90 yrs - what will be price effects as gas depletes? Fracking: How much will public resistance grow? CO 2 emissions: Will coal-to-gas shift reduce it enough? Alternative future: Reduce coal in electric sector while growing gas & pipelines equally with wind+electric transmission. Co-optimize gas pipeline & electric transmission. Replace significant petroleum for light-duty vehicles with CNG vehicles & PHEVs. Conjecture: This approach will reduce CO 2 more than a high gas-electric approach and will result in greater diversification of energy resources.

14. College of Engineering Top 20 states 14 Source: AWEA 2011 Third Quarter Market Report 14 of top 20 are in the interior of the nation. Top 3 coastal states are West. East coast is light on wind but heavy on load. Implication?  3 options for East coast use of wind: Build high cost inland wind, go offshore, or use transmission to move it from Midwest

15. College of Engineering 15 Source: AWEA 2012 First Quarter Market Report U.S. Wind Power Capacity By State

16. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US 16 Source: AWEA 2010 Third Quarter Market Report Source: AWEA Wind Power Outlook 2010

17. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US Market share of total 2008 wind installations Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report 17

18. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US Ownership by company and by regulated utility Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report 18

19. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US Wind plant size Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report 19

20. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US 29 states, differing in % (10-40), timing (latest is 2030), eligible technologies/resources (all include wind)

21. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US Tax incentives Federal Incentives: Renewed incentives Feb 2009 through 12/31/12, via ARRA 2.2 cents per kw-hr PTC for 10 yrs or 30% investment tax credit (ITC) State incentives: IA: 1.5¢/kWhr for small wind, 1¢/kWhr for large wind Various other including sales & property tax reductions 21

22. College of Engineering Federal energy policy (don’t have one) 22 In congress, “Energy bill” means Federal RPS, and “Climate bill” means CO 2 emissions control. Waxman-Markey Energy/Climate bill passed house 6/09. Climate part was “Cap and Trade.” Related Kerry-Graham Climate bill did not pass Senate. 2010 Carbon Limits & Energy For America’s Renewal, CLEAR Act (Sen Collins/Cantwell), “Cap & Refund” Cap CO 2 “upstream” via sales of coal, gas, petroleum Producers/importers buys CO 2 permits in monthly auction 3/4 of auction revenues refunded to US citizens Congressional attention died; Climate/energy bill non-issue in pres. campaigns 7/11 EPA rules “Cross-State Air Pollution Rule” (CSAPR, for SO 2, NO x ), “Mercury/Air Toxics Standards” (MATS) have more effect, causing near-term power plant shut-down, but CSAPR stayed on 12/30/11 by US Court of Appeals, DC Circuit.

23. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US 23

24. College of Engineering Grand Challenge Question For Energy: What investments should be made, how much, when, and where, at the national level, over the next 40 years, to achieve a sustainable, low cost, and resilient energy & transportation system? 24

25. College of Engineering NUCLEAR GEOTHERMAL SOLAR Wind BIOMASS CLEAN-FOSSIL Where, when, how much of each, & how to interconnect?

26. College of Engineering Grand Challenges For Wind: 1.Move wind energy from where it is harvested to where it can be used 2.Develop economically- attractive methods to accommodate increased variability and uncertainty introduced by large wind penetrations in operating the grid. 3.Improve wind turbine/farm economics (decrease investment and maintenance costs, increase operating revenues). 4.Address potential concerns about local siting, including wildlife, aesthetics, and impact on agriculture. 26

27. College of Engineering Wind vs. people 27

28. College of Engineering How to address grand challenges 28 #1. Move wind energy from where it is harvested to where it can be used. Transmission Eastern interconnection Midwest to East coast National Superhighways at 765 kV AC and/or 600/800 kV DC Right of way (rail, interstate highwys, existing transmission) Cost allocation Organizational nightmare Conductor technologies: overhead/underground, materials Offshore, lower CF turbines, higher turbines, but all of these result in higher cost of energy

29. College of Engineering How to address grand challenges 29

30. 30 NETPLAN: multiperiod, multiobjective, multisector Investments mainly in renewables with some nuclear.  Flow is west to east.  Highest trans cap investment is MAIN (4) to ECAR (1) because: CF (0.5 in MAIN, 0.3 in ECAR) Load is very high in ECAR  High trans cap investment from SPP (10) to STV (9) because: CF (0.4 in SPP, 0.1 in STV) Load is very high in STV CPLEX LP inside evolutionary program; co-optimizes generation, transmission, gas pipelines to minimize 40 year investment+production costs, network flow.

31. College of Engineering How to address grand challenges 31 #2. Develop economically-attractive methods to accom- modate increased variability and uncertainty introduced by large wind penetrations in operating the grid. Variability: Increase gas turbines Wind turbine control Load control Storage (pumped hydro, compressed air, flywheels, batteries, others) Increase geodiversity Uncertainty: Decrease it: improve forecasting uncertainty Handle it better: Develop UC decisions robust to wind pwr uncertainty

32. College of Engineering How to address grand challenges 32 #3. Improve wind turbine/farm economics (decrease investment/maint costs, increase operating revenues). Investment: Improve manufacturing/supply chain processes, construction, collection circuit layout, interconnection cost, land lease, and financing Operating & maintenance: Improve monitoring/evaluation for health assessment/prediction/life-ext Decrease maintenance costs (gearbox vs. direct-drive) Enhance energy extraction from wind per unit land area Improved turbine siting Inter-turbine and inter-farm control Increased efficiency of drive-train/generator/converters Lighter, stronger materials and improved control of rotor blades Taller turbines

33. College of Engineering 33 Wind turbine down-time distribution Reference: McMillan and Ault, “Quantification of Condition Monitoring Benefit for Offshore Wind Turbines,” 2007.

34. College of Engineering How to address grand challenges 34 #4. Address potential concerns about local siting, including wildlife, visual/audible, impact on agriculture. Migratory birds and bats: mainly a siting issue for birds. Bat-kill is more frequent. Agriculture: Agronomists indicate wind turbines may help! Visual: a sociological issue These issues have not been significant yet. Today, in Iowa, there are ~2600 turbines, with capacity 4200 MW. At 2 MW/turbine, a growth to 60 GW would require 30000 turbines, and assuming turbines are located only on cropland having class 3 or better winds (about 1/6 of the state), this means these regions would see, on average, one turbine every 144 acres.