1. Citizen’s Climate Lobby 2015 Great North Wind Country Regional Conference Nov 6-8, 2015 November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

2. The Science of Global Warming What We Know Now… John Abraham jpabraham@stthomas.edu 651-962-5766 School of Engineering University of St. Thomas November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

3. Abraham Intergovernmental Panel Report The highlights of the recently released IPCC report… Sea levels rising faster than previously thought. Warming is unequivocal. Each of the last three decades was warmer than prior decade, it is warmer than its been in 1400 years. The poles are warming faster than other regions. The ocean is becoming more acidic. Glacier ice loss is widespread. Decreased snow cover. Some extreme weather (heat waves, regional droughts, heavy precipitation and flooding, intense hurricanes) have increased. Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice. November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

4. Abraham The Basics…. courtesy of Gary Warden November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

5. Abraham The Basics…. Everyone Agrees…. #CCLWind2015

6. Abraham The Basics…. Solar radiation from the sun passes through the earth’s atmosphere. Some light (infrared) is emitted back into space. Greenhouse gases are able to trap infrared light. This trapped light is sent back to earth, causing global warming.

7. Abraham The Basics…. Greenhouse Gases 1. C.D. Keeling, R.B. Bacastow, A.E. Bainbridge, C.A. Ekdahl, P.R. Guenther, and L.S. Waterman, Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Tellus, vol. 28, 538-551, 1976. 2. NOAA 2008. #CCLWind2015

8. Abraham The Basics…. Greenhouse Gases This increase in CO 2 is also accompanied by increases in other greenhouse gases. Methane is ~20 times more potent than CO 2 over a 100 year period. Nitrous Oxide is 300 times more potent than CO 2 over a 100 year period. (IPCC 2007) November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

9. Abraham The Basics…. What Is My Impact? Major sources of CO 2 emission are from electrical usage and from transportation. Electrical Sources: Coal is used to produce approximately 42% of U.S. electricity (33% of CO 2 emissions). 1 kilowatt-hour of electricity from coal releases 2 pounds of CO 2 gas. This is equivalent to 18 cubic feet of space. Transportation Sources: Burning one gallon of gas releases 20 pounds of CO 2 gas. This is equivalent to 173 cubic feet of space. November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

10. Abraham But is the Earth Really Warming? Hottest Years on Record: (Goddard Institute for Space Science, 2014) 1.2014 2.2010 3.2005 4.2007 5.1998 6.2002 7.2013 8.2003 9.2009 10.2006 11.2012 November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

11. Abraham But is the Earth Really Warming? May, 2015 #CCLWind2015

12. Abraham But is the Earth Really Warming? November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

13. Abraham (IPCC, 2007) But is the Earth Really Warming? Temperature levels track closely with greenhouse gas levels. (J Hansen, 2007) November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

14. Abraham How are the temperatures known so far back in time? But is the Earth Really Warming? GISP2 Ice Core, 1837-1838 Meters Ice cores are used to measure temperature by “proxy”. The type of Oxygen molecules (isotopes) is related to temperatures when the bubble formed. In addition, the trapped air allows scientists to determine the levels of greenhouse gases. Finally, radiometric dating of the gas gives the age. Thus, temperature levels, time, and greenhouse gases are linked. Photograph courtesy of: Department of Geophysics, Niels Bohr Institute, Univ. Copenhagen November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

15. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? (IPCC 2007) K. Hayhoe #CCLWind2015

16. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? (IPCC 2007) K. Hayhoe #CCLWind2015

17. Abraham How Bad Will it Get?

18. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? #CCLWind2015

19. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? #CCLWind2015

20. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? #CCLWind2015

21. Abraham What Do We Do Now? May, 2015 #CCLWind2015

22. Abraham How Bad Will it Get?

23. Abraham 1980 Extent2005 Extent Arctic Sea Ice Extent Equivalent Area Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center 2005 Arctic Ice Equivalent Region Gore, 2007

24. Abraham 2007 Extent Arctic Sea Ice Extent Equivalent Area Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center 2007 Arctic Ice Equivalent Region Gore, 2007 Since then, we lost ice equal to Texas

25. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? There is a potential of dramatic ice loss. Moulins can drastically accelerate melting. (Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester) November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

26. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? Moulin on an ice sheet (Courtesy of NASA) November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

27. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? Images courtesy of Ted Scambos, (National Snow and Ice Data Center.) Robert Rohde

28. Abraham How Bad Will it Get?

29. Abraham Adamello Mandron Glacier, Alps Society for Ecological Research, Munich Robert Rohde #CCLWind2015

30. Abraham Adamello Mandron Glacier, Alps Society for Ecological Research, Munich Robert Rohde #CCLWind2015

31. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? Land-based ice losses… (J. Hansen, 2007) (Alpine Glacier, 1990 court. Munich Society for Environmental Research) November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

32. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? Land-based ice losses… (Portage Glacier, 1914 and 2004) November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

33. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

34. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

35. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? How much will ocean levels rise if: Greenland melts….. 7 meters (23 feet) West Antarctica melts….. 5 meters (17 feet) All of Antarctica melts….. 83 meters (270 feet) November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

36. Abraham How Bad Will it Get? Climate change will also lead to….. Lower crop yields, particularly in regions populated by subsistence farmers. Ocean acidification Redistribution of water (less in some areas, more in others). Increase of “extreme” weather events. (100-years floods occuring frequently). Potential increase of hurricanes (jury still out…) but increase in Atlantic Increase of invasive species. Migration of flora. Widespread extinctions. November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

37. Abraham What Do We Do Now? (J. Hansen, 2007) The way forward is multi-pathed. (Pacala and Socolow, 2004) November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

38. Abraham What Do We Do Now? 1.Talk to your representatives. -Ask for increased car-fuel standards -Ask for limits to carbon dioxide emissions -Make sure they know this is important 2.Talk to your friends - Most people are confused by multiple media sources 3.Reduce home electrical usage, purchase renewable if possible 4.Reduce transportation emissions 5.Contact me if you have any questions about the science. November, 2015 #CCLWind2015

39. Abraham Change is possible K. Hayhoe

40. Abraham

41. Scientists know that we are changing the climate, we’ve known for more than 150 years… We can solve this problem today, with today’s technology… We can help the environment, create jobs, generate energy, and improve national security… There is a cost to delayed action…