1. COP21 Presentation 4 Prediction for the Future Ford & Eric

2. 2 Degree Limit General goal for climate change is to limit temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial temperatures General goal for climate change is to limit temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial temperatures Put into writing at Cancun in 2010 Put into writing at Cancun in 2010 William Nordhaus-1977 William Nordhaus-1977 Suggested 2 degree limit keeps Earth within natural range of fluctuation Suggested 2 degree limit keeps Earth within natural range of fluctuation Limits ecological damage because Earth’s temperature has changed this much before Limits ecological damage because Earth’s temperature has changed this much before Currently predicted that we will exceed 2 degrees Currently predicted that we will exceed 2 degrees

3. 2 Degree Limit If reaching 2 degree limit, by 2100 predictions of altered: Marine ecosystems Marine ecosystems Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Weather patterns Weather patterns Extreme storms, drought, wildfires Extreme storms, drought, wildfires Agriculture Agriculture Reduction in yields of wheat, rice and corn in both tropical and temperate regions Reduction in yields of wheat, rice and corn in both tropical and temperate regions

4. 2 Degree Rise Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P- 0_gDXqYeQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P- 0_gDXqYeQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P- 0_gDXqYeQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P- 0_gDXqYeQ

5. On a track for

6. A One Degree Rise Not analyzing the average air temperature, but the average surface temperature of the earth Not analyzing the average air temperature, but the average surface temperature of the earth Barely perceptible to human skin – but impactful in balance of environment Barely perceptible to human skin – but impactful in balance of environment Scary Fact from Ice Core samples: In the last million years it has never been more than one degree Celsius warmer than it is now In the last million years it has never been more than one degree Celsius warmer than it is now

7. Solar Geoengineering Study how to reduce solar irradiation Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) Can we utilize the tech that all trees use Can we utilize the tech that all trees use We’re not advanced enough yet We’re not advanced enough yet Can plant trees Can plant trees But not enough difference would be made But not enough difference would be made

8. Solar Geoengineering Atmospheric Reflection In 1991, Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted in one of the largest volcanic blasts of the 20 th century In 1991, Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted in one of the largest volcanic blasts of the 20 th century Spat 20 million tons of sulfur into the atmosphere Spat 20 million tons of sulfur into the atmosphere Shielding earth from the sun’s rays Shielding earth from the sun’s rays Causing global temperatures to drop by nearly a half a degree Celsius in a single year Causing global temperatures to drop by nearly a half a degree Celsius in a single year

9. Volcanic Sulfur Half a degree Celsius is the same amount the planet has warmed in the last 50 years Half a degree Celsius is the same amount the planet has warmed in the last 50 years Scientists have considered replicating the event to counteract global warming Scientists have considered replicating the event to counteract global warming Using a fleet of jets to inject sulfate aerosols high into the atmosphere to block a portion of the sun’s rays Using a fleet of jets to inject sulfate aerosols high into the atmosphere to block a portion of the sun’s rays However, there could be serious unintended environmental consequences However, there could be serious unintended environmental consequences Wouldn’t reduce CO2 levels Wouldn’t reduce CO2 levels

10. COP21 Goals Legal force – provide consequences for not meeting targets Legal force – provide consequences for not meeting targets Ensure Green Climate Fund is adequately financed Ensure Green Climate Fund is adequately financed Differentiation – set goals for all nations, not just developed ones Differentiation – set goals for all nations, not just developed ones Focus on adaptation to inevitable climate change Focus on adaptation to inevitable climate change Let negotiations be transparent Let negotiations be transparent Attempt to meet our 2 degree goal Attempt to meet our 2 degree goal

11. COP21 Predictions Most experts think that a new international treaty will be signed Most experts think that a new international treaty will be signed Update or replacement for Kyoto Protocol Update or replacement for Kyoto Protocol Only 32% think it will have legally binding authority Only 32% think it will have legally binding authority Low confidence in ability to meet 2 degree goal Low confidence in ability to meet 2 degree goal Ending of subsidies for fossil fuel companies important Ending of subsidies for fossil fuel companies important Much of the burden will fall on businesses Much of the burden will fall on businesses Governments pass their goals along to private sector Governments pass their goals along to private sector

12. Climate Change Activism About 570,000 in rallies worldwide About 570,000 in rallies worldwide Urging change and showing public support Urging change and showing public support London: 50,000 in march from Hyde Park to Whitehall London: 50,000 in march from Hyde Park to Whitehall Link to Brandalism movement Link to Brandalism movement Reducing the amount of corporate advertising Reducing the amount of corporate advertising Showing link between corporate culture and pollution Showing link between corporate culture and pollution

13. Sources http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-34956825 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-34956825 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-34956825 http://www.sustainability.com/news/experts- confident-that-cop21-will-lead-to-an-international- agreement-predict-that-business-will-be-key-to-its- implementation-post-2015#.VluX9fnhDtQ http://www.sustainability.com/news/experts- confident-that-cop21-will-lead-to-an-international- agreement-predict-that-business-will-be-key-to-its- implementation-post-2015#.VluX9fnhDtQ http://www.sustainability.com/news/experts- confident-that-cop21-will-lead-to-an-international- agreement-predict-that-business-will-be-key-to-its- implementation-post-2015#.VluX9fnhDtQ http://www.sustainability.com/news/experts- confident-that-cop21-will-lead-to-an-international- agreement-predict-that-business-will-be-key-to-its- implementation-post-2015#.VluX9fnhDtQ http://www.theenergycollective.com/falwellp/219 3591/core-issues-paris-climate-talks http://www.theenergycollective.com/falwellp/219 3591/core-issues-paris-climate-talks http://www.theenergycollective.com/falwellp/219 3591/core-issues-paris-climate-talks http://www.theenergycollective.com/falwellp/219 3591/core-issues-paris-climate-talks