1. Location, identification, and prediction of objects in space Orbital and space environmental physics 21 October 2008 Dr. Kent L. Miller Program Manager AFOSR/NE Air Force Research Laboratory Distribution C: Distribution authorized to U.S. Government agencies and their contractors. To protect draft, planning, or other preliminary information from premature dissemination. Other requests for this document shall be referred to AFOSR/PI.

2. 2 Space Situational Awareness Over 12000 objects in the catalog Most either at LEO or GEO Goal to upgrade SSN to see 1-cm objects According to the European SSN, Debris from Chinese ASAT resulted in: 14 objects > 1m 1,862 objects > 10cm 55,000 objects > 1 cm 2,700,000 objects > 1 mm

3. 3 SSA Discovery Challenge Thrust Observables and Surveillance: 1. Non-imaging techniques 2. Inverse problems 3. Model uncertainties and confidence Capabilities and Situational Modeling: 1. Predictive analyses 2. Uncorrelated tracks 3. Intuitive assimilation of information Environmental Effects: 1. Equatorial ionospheric irregularities 2. Neutral density and winds 3. Energy partitioning

4. 4 SSA DCT Grants Awarded Observables and Surveillance – Dr. Mark Chun, University of Hawaii, “Low light adaptive correction in support of the space situational awareness mission” – Dr. Sudhakar Prasad, University of New Mexico, “Combining imaging and nonimaging observations for improved space object identification” – Dr. Joseph Rich, Ohio State University, “Energy transfer and radiation signatures in hypervelocity vehicles” Capabilities and Situational Modeling – Dr. Aubrey Poore, Numerica Corp., “Multiple hypothesis correlation for space awareness” – Dr. Terry Alfriend, Texas A&M, “Advanced Techniques for Correlation of Space Objects” Environmental Effects – Dr. Andrew Gerrard, New Jersey Tech., “Multi-instrument study to investigate the formation and growth of equatorial irregularities” – Dr. Arthur Richmond, UCAR, “Modeling Density Variation in the Thermosphere”

5. 5 Remote Sensing and Imaging Physics Surveillance and Tracking – Can we get useable images in extreme seeing conditions? Space Object Identification – What can we know about a space object if we cannot image it? Physics of Imaging and Wavefront Control – Are there fundamental properties or characteristics of electromagnetic radiation that could be exploited to identify and characterize targets?

6. 6 Space Environment

7. 7 Three main topics affecting Air Force Satellite Drag Prediction Communication and Navigation Radiation Environment for Satellites

8. 8 Satellite Drag Prediction AFSPC 72-hour Prediction Requirement Atmospheric composition and density variability Actual Position Predicted Position

9. 9 Communication and Navigation C/NOFS Forecast communication and navigation outages High Latitude Plasma patches Intense E, B fields Energetic Particles Low Latitude Scintillation from plasma instabilities

10. 10 Radiation Environment

11. 11 ~ 400 km altitude

12. 12 NADIR MURI Neutral Atmosphere Forecasting  Determination of Satellite Drag  Prediction of Satellite Orbits Level 1: Getting the Physics right Level 2: Initial AFSPC Goal – 72-hour Forecast Level 3: Long-term Goal – Forecast for One Solar Rotation

13. 13 Questions?