1. Testing the Australian WRA for reducing introduction of invasive plants to Florida Doria R. Gordon Associate Director of Science UF Professor of Botany UF Collaborators: Alison Fox Randall Stocker Daphne Onderdonk Thanks to: FDEP BIPM USDA APHIS PPQ FDACS DPI Lygodium microphyllum

2.  Why test a predictive tool in Florida?  Our approach Modified Australian Weed Risk Assessment Data used Results  Comparison to tests elsewhere Accuracy ROC  Conclusions Outline Imperata cylindrica

3. Number of Plants Imported through Miami International Airport Why a predictive tool for Florida? 57% of plant shipments, carrying 74% of all plants imported to the U.S., enter through Florida (2006)

4. Hypothesis  Accuracy in FL will be comparable to that for Australia, HI, and other geographies > 90% of invaders correctly identified > 75% of non-invaders correctly identified < 15% of species require further evaluation

5. Florida Test  Australian WRA with minor modifications to 3 questions for greater relevance to Florida’s climate  Include Daehler et al. (2004) secondary screen for species requiring further evaluation

6. Species List  158 non-native species in Florida 62 major invaders 31 invasive in natural areas (IFAS Assessment - Fox et al. 2005) 31 invasive in agricultural areas (SWSS lists) 48 minor invaders Documented in Florida’s flora but not as invasive 48 non-invasive – after > 50 years in FL Documented in cultivation but not in any flora  Invaders and non-invaders paired by family and life form as possible  Assessor had no knowledge of original category or species distribution in Florida

7. Species breakdown Life form Non-invader Minor Invader Major invader Forb/herbaceous12 18 23 Graminoid 3 8 8 Shrub10 5 8 Subshrub 1 2 1 Vine 7 8 9 Tree15 7 13 Phylogeny Families35 27 36 Orders24 14 25 21% overlap across Families 59% overlap across Orders

8. Results  Sufficient data for all 158 species – 35 questions answered on average  Natural area = agricultural weeds  Scores not biased by plant family  4 question decision tree (Caley & Kuhnert 2006) correct for 100% of major invaders & 12% of non- invaders 91% of minor invaders rejected  “Invader elsewhere?” correct for 92% of major invaders & 92% of non-invaders 67% of minor invaders rejected

9. Evaluate Further Accept Reject Results Non-invader Minor invader Major invader

10. Results 27% of species (42) in Evaluate Further category 10% of species (16) in Evaluate Further after using secondary screen (meets hypothesized < 15%) Non-invaders Minor Invaders Major invaders Accept11121 Reject011

11. Results Using secondary screen  No percentages significantly different than hypothesized Outcome Non- invader Minor invader Major invader Overall Accept73% (35)36%(17) 2%(1) Evaluate further19% (9) 6% (3) 6%(4)10% (16) Reject 8% (4)58%(28) 92%(57) Total number 48 62 158 Ardisia crenata

12. Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Minor and Major Invaders Combined  Area not significantly different than when Minor and Non-invaders are combined (0.89)  When Score = 3: 90% correct rejects 70% correct accepts  Curve area = 0.91

13. With secondary screen Evaluate further species removed from accuracy calculation Grouping minor and non-invaders as “Non-invader”: __________________________________________________________________ Actual: Non-invader Invader Total Likelihood of correct decision ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Predicted: Accept52 1 53 98% (52/53) Evaluate12 4 16 Reject32 57 89 64% (57/89) Total96 62 158 Accuracy: Percent correct A & R outcomes: 62%98% (52/84) (57/58) __________________________________________________________________

14. With secondary screen Evaluate further species removed from accuracy calculation Grouping minor and major invaders as “Invader”: __________________________________________________________________ Actual: Non-invader Invader Total Likelihood of correct decision ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Predicted: Accept35 1853 66% (35/53) Evaluate 9 716 Reject 4 8589 96% (85/89) Total48 110 158 Accuracy: Percent correct A & R outcomes: 90%83% (35/39) (85/103) __________________________________________________________________

15. Comparison to tests elsewhere *  82 - 100% Major Invaders rejected - NS  56 - 87% Non-invaders accepted CR > AU, HI, BI H & P > AU, HI  22 - 80% Minor invaders rejected BI > AU, CR  13 – 29% *8 – 11% Eval further **** * Used 2 o screen (Daehler et al. 2004)

16. ROC Curves – Minor + Non CR area > all others Pheloung et al. 1999 Křivánek & Pyšek 2006 Kato et al. 2006 8 7 108

17. ROC Curves –Minor + Major All curve areas equivalent Pheloung et al. 1999 Daehler & Carino 2000 Křivánek & Pyšek 2006 Kato et al. 2006 5 9 55 6

18. Conclusions  The WRA amended for conditions in Florida and with the secondary screen developed by Daehler et al. (2004) meets the three hypothesized accuracy standards: > 90% of invaders correctly rejected > 75% of non-invaders correctly accepted < 15% of species require further evaluation  Results not significantly affected by: Natural areas vs. agricultural weeds Natural areas vs. agricultural weeds Families, life-form, life-history Families, life-form, life-history  The WRA approach appears useful across variable geographies. Solanum viarum

19. In Australia  Implementation of the WRA between 1997 and 2006: 2,800 plant species proposed for introduction 53% accepted 20% need further evaluation 27% rejected (Riddle, pers com)  WRA policy cost effective in 10 yrs and estimated to save Australia up to $1.8 billion over 50 years (Keller et al. 2006) Hydrilla verticillata

20. How might the WRA be used at the state level?  Work with the horticultural and landscape industries to voluntarily exclude likely invaders FL, CA, HI, OR and others have active efforts  Identify species to be added to Noxious Weed and Invasive Plant lists But…  Inclusion in revised Q-37 regulation is only way to create a national prevention mechanism Lantana camara

21. Evaluate Further Accept Reject Consider moving thresholds Non-invader Minor invader Major invader