1. CAUSES EFFECTS Focal Problem Developing the Problem Tree Turning the problem into a positive statement can give the outcome or impact Addressing the causes can identify possible outputs and activities Addressing the effects identifies possible indicators 1

2. CAUSES (But why?) EFFECTS (So what?) Increased Agricultural Productivity Low capacity of Extension Workers Soil Erosion National policy not evidence- based Limited Knowledge of Farmers on Marketing Limited Access to Land Limited Market Low Income Low Export Limited Access to Value Chains and Technologies Weak Statistics System Low Govt. Budget Malnutrition Demand exceeds Supply Increased Poverty Low GDP Growth A problem tree 2 No Access to Finance

3. Possible Objectives Possible Indicators Increased Agricultural Productivity Build capacity of Extension Workers Reduce Soil Erosion Support Evidence Based Policy Build Knowledge of Farmers on Marketing Land Tenure Regularization Improved Market Access Higher Income High Export Increase Access to Value Chains and Technologies Improve Statistics System Inject into Govt. Revenue Improved Nutrition Increased Supply Reduced Poverty Increased GDP Growth An Objective Tree 3 Provide Access to Finance

4. Stakeholder Analysis: Increased Agricultural Productivity Opposition Support Active opponent Passive opponent Neutral Passive supporter Active supporter Stakehold er Power High International Traders Policy Makers Food Buyers and Processors Medium Ministry of Agricutlure Chambers of Agriculture Extension units Low National data and statistical units Farmers Producer Organizations

5. Capacity Assessment 5 DimensionsCapacity areasExisting situation Desired situationInterventionsResponsi ble Priority (1-4 (hi to low) Enabling Environment Policy and legal frameworks Land tenure laws need update Supportive land tenure law being implemented Support legal reform FAO (LEG) 2 High Economic framework and national public sector budget... Poor budget allocation Need national budget allocation Support to Advocacy activities FAO Rep.1 Very high OrganizationsInstitutional motivation Extension unit needs.... Strong and active extension unit Org. analysis and development support FAO (AGP) 1 Very high Operational capacity... Stats unit needs.... Strong stats unit linked with policy makers Training and coordination FAO (ESA) 2 High IndividualsSkills levelsFarmers skills on business improved NGO partners 1 Very high Competency development

6. Increased Agricultural Productivity Build capacity of Extension Workers Reduce Soil Erosion Support Evidence Based Policy Build Knowledge of Farmers on Marketing Provide Access to Finance Increase Access to Value Chains and Technologies Land Tenure Regularization Improve Statistics System Inject into Govt. Revenue Degree of fit with higher plans/Core Functions What are others doing? FAO comparative advantage and capacity? Alignment with FAO ORs Alignment with country priorities? Risks and assumptions? Who is at risk ? Degree of fit with higher plans/Core Functions What are others doing? FAO comparative advantage and capacity? Alignment with FAO ORs Alignment with country priorities? Risks and assumptions? Who is at risk ? Use objective criteria to analyse which objectives ‘root’ to prioritise Feasibility? Social criteria Technical Institutional Economic & Financial Environmental Feasibility? Social criteria Technical Institutional Economic & Financial Environmental Options Analysis 6

7. Formulating Results Chain 7 Objectives Selected after Prioritisation Refined Results Chain Increased Agricultural Productivity CPF Outcome 1: Smallholder Commercialization Programme (SCP) is supported to improve productivity and processing Build Capacity of Extension Workers Output 1.1 Technical capacity of the agriculture sector staff at central and district level is strengthened. Improve Statistics System Output 1.2 A system for the collection, analysis and use of agricultural statistics (including fisheries, livestock, land and forestry) for policy making is improved. Increase Access to Value Chains and Technologies Output 1.3 Access to agro-services and value chain development improved Build Knowledge of Farmers on Marketing Output 1.4 Farmers know how for processing and marketing of agricultural and fisheries/aquaculture products is improved (empower national partners to strengthen farmer/s programme)