1. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Assessing Transition of Security Operations in Afghanistan Progress Report 4 March 2010 1

2. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Agenda Problem Statement Methodology System Design Update Values and Metrics Update Preliminary Results Friction Points Earned Value Management 2

3. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Problem Statement The goal of the research is to develop a value model that assesses the transition of security lead from the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and US Forces Afghanistan (USFOR-A) to the Afghani government and Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) Deputy Director, Force Integration and Training (CJ7) / CSTC-A defined five lines of operation (LOOs) that support the goal of transferring security operations – Accelerate ANSF growth – Achieve security for the Afghan population – Marginalize malign actors – Achieve legitimate, responsive, and accountable governance – Facilitate community development Develop metrics and an accompanying decision support tool to measure progress against the five LOOs Stakeholders – Force Integration and Training cell of NTM-A/CSTC-A (sponsor) – NTM-A/CSTC-A – Coalition military leadership – U.S. government leadership 3

4. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Methodology Project group organized into two subgroups Values and Metrics – Research values and metrics “Requirements” to win a counter-insurgency conflict Assessments of ANSF, security, Afghani government, and community – Develop value model with sponsor System Design – Development of user interface, input forms, storage, usable output – Integrate values, metrics, and value model from other team into the system 4

5. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Technical Approach – System Design System Input: the quantitative portion of the value model in a standardized survey format, completed by military units System Processing and Storage: completed survey templates are configuration controlled and ingested into data storage. User querying capabilities allow the retrieval of data (by unit and/or AOR and/or date range) to research trends Analysis Output: Condensed and easily understood presentation for decision makers 55

6. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Concept of Operation Surveys from 5 main military regions CJ7 processes surveys and requests status report CJ7 Processes Surveys Requests Status Report Military Regions 6

7. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY System Design Update Past Week Progress – Finalize Functional and Non-Functional Requirements (Data, Maintenance) – Data Compiler Prototype – Finalize Concept of Operation Way Ahead – Refine interface and status report requirements – Expand Compiler Capacity 7

8. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Operational Scenario 8

9. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY External System Diagrams 9

10. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY System Analysis Diagram 10

11. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Functional Architecture 11

12. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Functional Decomposition 12

13. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Technical Approach – Value Model Qualitative Value Model: the identification of an objective hierarchy relating fundamental and means objectives Quantitative Value Model: the articulation of the decision maker’s preferences towards the attributes, and the means of measuring each attribute V(x) = ∑ w i v i (x i )where w i = weight of attribute i v i = value of attribute i at score x i 13

14. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Values and Metrics Update Past Week Progress – Refined value structure – Removed overlapping parameters – Removed or modified parameters with problematic metrics – Sent to sponsor for feedback – Researched range of variation Near Term Goals – Complete range of variation analysis – Elicit weights and utility funtions Personal meeting unlikely Elicit by phone / email 14

15. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Value Function Status 54 values identified 56 metrics developed 56 possible ranges of variation determined – Theoretical where data unavailable – Awaiting data or feedback to strengthen Awaiting partial or complete data for 43 of the identified metrics 15

16. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Value Structure (1 of 5) Transition Assessment Accelerate Growth of ANSF Force Size Training Capability Number of Units Fielded Average Assigned Strength Availability of Equipment Weapons Communication Equipment Vehicles Unit Facilities Training and Leadership Unit Rating Leader to Soldier Ratio Advanced Training Staff Training ETT Availability Confidence Assigned to NATO Partner Present for DutyWin/Lose Ratio Kill Rates Engagements Access to Combat Multipliers Access to MEDEVAC Access to Fire Support Access to Intelligence Access to Supplies Ministry and HQ Capability Force Management Acquisition Operations Training Plan and Goals Force Sustainment Force Development Resource Management Security for Afghan People Marginalize Malign Actors Accountable Governance Community Development 16

17. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Value Structure (2 of 5) Transition Assessment Accelerate Growth of ANSF Security for Afghan People Economic Indicators Price of Exotic Foods New Business Formations New Construction Capital Flight Kinetic Indicators % of Security Forces Affected by Insurgency ISAF+ANSF KIA Voluntary Reporting Afghan-on- Afghan Violence Assassination and Kidnapping Rate Wound/Capture vs. Kill Rate Marginalize Malign Actors Accountable Governance Community Development 17

18. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Value Structure (3 of 5) Transition Assessment Accelerate Growth of ANSF Security for Afghan People Marginalize Malign Actors # Districts w/ Functioning Governance Officials Sleep in District Detainee Guilt Ratio Captured Insurgent Health Religious Leaders’ Attitude Media Access to Internet #Shadow Governments Accountable Governance Community Development 18

19. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Value Structure (4 of 5) Transition Assessment Accelerate Growth of ANSF Security for Afghan People Marginalize Malign Actors Accountable Governance # New Court Cases Participation in Government Activities Anti- Government Protests #Officials Purchasing Position Budget Execution Formation of Anti-Insurgent Lashkar # CIVCAS by ANSF Community Development 19

20. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Value Structure (5 of 5) Transition Assessment Accelerate Growth of ANSF Security for Afghan People Marginalize Malign Actors Accountable Governance Community Development # Afghan Projects Electricity Available Community Opinion Medical Care 20

21. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Definition: “The possible variation of the scores of a value measure” -Gregory S. Parnell Important precursor to determining DM value (or utility) function Range of Variation (ROV) aka “Range of a value measure” *OR681, GMU 21

22. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Elicitation of Weights and Utility (1 of 3) Weight is the relative importance of a value and are elicited from DM; must sum to one at each level under each node – Weight of values under Sports Car must equal 1 – Weight of values under both Performance and Reliability must each equal 1 Performance Sports Car AccelerationTop SpeedBrakingHandling Reliability.7.3.1.3.25.35 22

23. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Elicitation of Weights and Utility (2 of 3) Several methods to elicit weights – Direct weights – Swing weights – Rank Sum Utility is the value the DM assigns to a specific point along a range of variation – How much better is a Top Speed of 150 mph than 120 mph? 90 mph? – Often used to assess risk attitude 23

24. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Weights and Utility Curves (3 of 3) Elicit utility through lottery or certainty equivalence Weights and utility can be linear, piecewise, exponential, or an S-curve 24 *OR681, GMU

25. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Preliminary Results Functioning test system using input forms 25

26. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Friction Points No approval from JIEDDO to work with classified material – Portions of data and final project expected to be classified – Can use fabricated data to demonstrate function and sponsor can populate with correct information in secure environment Distance and interaction of sponsor – No face-to-face meetings possible – Flow of information is sporadic – Use local point of contact for weight elicitation and fabricate unavailable data 26

27. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Earned Value Management 27

28. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Cost Index 28

29. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Visit Our Project Website 29 http://mason.gmu.edu/~dugarte/index.html

30. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Questions? 30

31. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY BACKUP SLIDES 31

32. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Work Breakdown Schedule 32

33. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (1 of 7) 33

34. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (2 of 7) 34

35. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (3 of 7) 35

36. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (4 of 7) 36

37. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (5 of 7) 37

38. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (6 of 7) 38

39. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (7 of 7) 39