1. FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 An Overview for 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Tom Filiaggi June 2009 FFMPA F LASH F LOOD M ONITORING AND P REDICTION - A DVANCED http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

2. Agenda Current State of Operations FFMP Displays –Color Image –Basin Table –Basin Trend –Basin Trace FFMP Background Monitoring –Guardian Integration Ancillary Elements –Forced FFG –Ingest Data Monitor –RFC FFG Update method Responsible Individuals FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

3. Agenda AN FFMP History Basic Overview Current State of Operations FFMP Displays –Color Image –Basin Table –Basin Trend –Basin Trace FFMP Background Monitoring –Guardian Integration Ancillary Elements –Forced FFG –Ingest Data Monitor –RFC FFG Update method Responsible Individuals FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

4. FFMPA History: AMBER Areal Mean Basin Estimated Rainfall Developed by Bob Davis and Paul Jendrowski at the PBZ WFO, becoming operational in 1985. Initially applied to Pittsburgh only, but was expanded for use in other WFO County Warning Areas FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

5. FFMPA History: AMBER All watersheds in county warning area are defined to a Minimum Basin Area (MBA) of 2 mi 2 to show spatial rainfall distribution. The WSR-88D polar grid (1 deg. by 1km) is mapped to the defined watersheds. Average Basin Rainfall (ABR) is computed for each watershed every volume scan. An hourly ABR rate is determined from the single volume scan (5-6 min.) of ABR. (Borrowed from a COMET presentation by Bob Davis, WFO PBZ) FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

6. FFMPA History: National Basin Delineation 30Sep1999 – NWS agrees to fund the AMBER National Basin Delineation project by NSSL for all of the United States. ArcInfo used to define the watershed boundaries. USGS 1 arc second (30 m) DEM data supplied by EROS Data Center. www.nssl.noaa.gov/teams/western/basins (Borrowed from a COMET presentation by Bob Davis, WFO PBZ) FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

7. FFMPA History: Pfafstetter Codification Proposed and Applied on a Global Basis (GTOPO30) Kristine and John Verdin Senior Scientists EROS Data Center Journal of Hydrology 218 (1999) 1-12 (Borrowed from a COMET presentation by Bob Davis, WFO PBZ) FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

8. FFMPA Basic Overview FFMPA (Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction – Advanced): FFMPA is an integrated suite of multi-sensor applications which detects, analyzes, and monitors precipitation and generates short-term warning guidance for flash flooding automatically within AWIPS. FFMP will provide forecasters with accurate, timely, and consistent guidance and supplement forecaster event monitoring with multi-sensor, automated event monitoring. The intended benefits are –Longer lead times on warned events –Fewer missed events –Increased forecaster situational awareness –Reduced forecaster fatigue during warning situations FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

9. FFMPA Basic Overview Ingests precipitation data and guidance data in various forms ( server-side ): –Precip: QPE, QPF –Guidance: Flash Flood, Debris Flow, ?? –Gridded: Radar polar, lat/lon, HRAP (& derivative) Transforms the data into the ‘small hydrologic basin’ world, based on small basin GIS shapefiles ( server-side ) Displays and monitors according to what configuration the user has defined. This allows for: –Comparison of accumulation to guidance –Customizable time frame –Auto-aggregation FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

10. FFMPA: Data Flow in AWIPS FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

11. FFMPA Current State of Operations WFOs are responsible for issuing flash flood warnings, urban and small stream advisories, and flood warnings, as well as some experimental debris flow warnings. FFMP is a baseline AWIPS application with both server and display components. Many WFO forecasters use FFMP as a tool to assist with warning operations (Decision Assistance). FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

12. FFMPA Display: Color Image FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

13. Auto-Aggregation: HUC0 FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

14. FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 Auto-Aggregation: HUC1 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

15. FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 Auto-Aggregation: HUC2 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

16. FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 Auto-Aggregation: HUC3 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

17. FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 Auto-Aggregation: HUC4 FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

18. FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 Auto-Aggregation: All-and-Only Small Basins FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

19. FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMPA Display: Basin Table Customizable –Color-coded –Sort-able Filterable –Sorted Value –Geographic area Time selection –Rate –¼-hour increments –Max based on purge Split Window –Combine QPE & QPF then compare to Guidance Interactive –Auto-aggregation –Zoom, with rules –Color Image Click Basin Trend Basin Trace Value added –Virtual Gage Basins –Data gap notice FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

20. FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMPA Display: Basin Trend Customizable –Color-coded –X-axis reversible Time selection –All-times inclusive –Standard Guidance times –Current Time Split Window –Combine QPE & QPF then compare to Guidance Interactive –Toggle-able plots –Draggable/scrollable Value added –Virtual Gage Basins FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

21. FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMPA Display: Basin Trace FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

22. FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMPA Background Monitoring Customizable –Color-coded –Data Sources –Type choice Accum Ratio Diff Filterable –CWA (Service Backup) Time selection –Rate –¼-hour increments –Max based on purge Split Window –Combine QPE & QPF then compare to Guidance Value added –Data gap notice –Multiple Monitor conditions FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

23. FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMPA Ancillary: Forced FFG Applies user-defined FFG –Strict override –modification For a user-defined data source For a user-defined period of time For a user-defined area –County –Basin –Entire domain That is retrievable Desire Geographic interface FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

24. FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: HMT Overview, November, 2008 FFMPA Ancillary: Ingest Data Monitor Notes health of data ingest, of interest to FFMPA User-defined determination of “too old” HTML Interface Special rules for RADAR DHR FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

25. FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: HMT Overview, November, 2008 FFMPA Ancillary: FFG Update Method Elements of Transition method: –Apply a lag, to eliminate double-counting of precipitation in FFMPA analyses. This lag will be equal to the Time Frame of the Guidance. (ie: 3-hr Guidance = 3-hr lag). –Apply an hourly interpolation scheme that manages precipitation in a way that greatly enhances the Guidance values for the transition period and avoids increased under-warn situations that could exist with a lag-only approach. FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

26. Main Developers –Tom Filiaggi- MDL: Lead Tom.Filiaggi@noaa.gov –Lingyan Xin - MDL Lingyan.Xin@noaa.gov FFMP Advanced: OB9 User Interface Review May, 2008FFMP Advanced: Debris Flow Workshop Overview, June 2009 FFMPA Responsible Individuals FFMP Advanced: 4 th Regional Severe Storms / Radar and Hydrology Conference Overview, August 2009 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp