1. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw, November 5 2014 1 Images of the Future City Smart Cities. Energy efficiency in Sustainable Urban Development Swedish-Polish Sustainable Energy Platform Nov 5 2014 Mattias Höjer, hojer@kth.sehojer@kth.se Professor Environmental stragtegies and Futures studies Director Centre for Sustainable Communications KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm

2. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014 What could a future Stockholm, with a sustainable energy use, look like? Images of the future describing Stockholm 2050 with an energy use 60 % lower per capita than 2000 (~50 higher than latin-America 2004) from a household perspective 2

3. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014 Creating a starting point Defining Household functions Choosing building blocks Choosing dimensions Statistics Sweden Data for energy use with consumtion perspective at a detailed level 3

4. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014 Creating a basis for images of the future For a number of ”building blocks”: Historical development Current situation Trends Potential in relation to target (energy reduction) and two dimensions 4

5. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014 Household functions Private – leisure activities Housing – a place to live Food – everything related to eating Care – taking care of children, elderly, sick Common – authorities, higher education, military Support – earning your living 5

6. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014 Energy use 2000 for inhabitants in Stockholm, % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% PersonalResidenceFoodCareCommonSupport 6

7. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014 Generating (target-fulfilling) scenarios Building blocks Household functions Energy constraints 7

8. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014 Space/Urban form Suburban centres Urban cores Low-rise settlements 700 000 new inhabitants of Stockholm “drip” into the images of the future (increase by 40 % year 2000-2050) 8

9. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014 Time/Tempo Fast Slow 9

10. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014 Six images of the future: Space Urban form Time Life style Suburban nodes Urban cores Low-rise Settlements Slow Fast 10

11. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014 Energy use in six images of the future 11

12. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014 Technology for reduced energy use Smaller living area Eating less meat Reduced commuting Less air travel

13. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014 Backcasting Höjer & Mattsson, 2000 1. Definition of target 3. Images of the future 2. Target analysis 4. Analysis of images of the future images of thefuture Target fulfilment? Time today forecasts no yes infuture 1 2 3 2 4 4 4 4 4 2 3 13

14. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw November 5 2014 Some final notes on backcasting: Useful when current trends not in line with important targets Quantitative illustrations plus qualitative analysis Challenges the trust in forecasts mental barriers for what is possible to change the idea of consistency in scenarios Highlights goal-conflicts and conflicts of interests Eye-opener when it comes to see the need and opportunity for change 14

15. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw, November 5 2014 15 Strategic Innovation Agenda for Smart Sustainable Cities KTH: Energy Platform ICT Platform KTH-S CESC - Centre for Sustainable Communications ACCESS-Centre Centre for Sustainable Built Environment Electromagnetic Engineering Energy Technology Environmental Strategies Research ECO2 Vehicle Design Industrial Ecology Industrial Information and Control Systems Land and Water Resources Engineering Media Technology and Interaction Design ABBElectrolux Ericsson Fortum HPIBM IntelNCC SiemensSweco TeliaSoneraVasakronan City of Malmö City of Gothenburg Skåne Regional Council City of Stockholm ITU – SSC (FN) Swedish National Grid Swedish Transport Adm Chalmers KTH Royal Institute of Technology Lund University SP Swedish ICT Partners may be added HS2020 Swedish Union of Tenants

16. Mattias Höjer, Warsaw, November 5 2014 16 What is Smart Sustainable Cities?