1. Oman Case Innovative Statistical Frameworks To Meet Global Challenges Sabir Al-Harbi New York 18 February 2011

2. Source: IMF Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis Global GDP Growth (Percent, quarter over quarter, annualized) Change (%)

3. Global Trends: F OOD C RISIS

9. K EY INNOVATION IN ECONOMIC STATISTICS IN O MAN Need for Processing & Producing High Frequency & Timely Indicators for Monitoring the Economy

10. K EY INNOVATION IN ECONOMIC STATISTICS IN O MAN I. Development of Price Statistics Weekly Food Inflation (Short Term) Weekly CPI (Long Term) II. Early Warning Indicators Quarterly Flash GDP Monthly Flash GDP Composite Indicators

11. I- D EVELOPMENT OF P RICE S TATISTICS W EEKLY F OOD I NFLATION G AUGE (S HORT T ERM ) Some 70 key food items Leading indicator for CPI and PPI changes Quick outlook into the very short term Weekly compilation process Saturday-Monday: Field Collection & Data Processing Tuesday: Review Wednesday: Publish Data recycled to complement ordinary CPI, PPI, XMPI compilations

12. I- D EVELOPMENT OF P RICE S TATISTICS Weekly CPI (Long Term) Need for a Full Weekly CPI with 1 Day Timeliness Revision of the Data Collection Methodology Burden versus Investment (Needs Greater than Cost) Feasibility Study (2012)

13. II- E ARLY W ARNING I NDICATORS A. F LASH Q UARTERLY GDP (N OW - C ASTING ) The First Estimate of Overall Economic Activities Imputation for the Last Month of the Quarter Timeliness 10 Days After end of the Ref. Period

14. Q UARTERLY F LASH GDP

15. A CTUAL VS. F LASH GDP

16. II- E ARLY W ARNING I NDICATORS B. M ONTHLY F LASH GDP o Calculated using Production Approach o One Month Timeliness o Utilization of Monthly Short Term Indictors such as: Administrative Data Price Statistics Monthly Survey Results Monthly Financial Statements of the Large Enterprises

17. II- E ARLY W ARNING I NDICATORS B. M ONTHLY F LASH GDP Better timeliness Less accuracy, but acceptable Availability of strong monthly set of information Strengthen the Flash Quarterly GDP Strengthen the high frequency indicators

19. II- E ARLY W ARNING I NDICATOR C. C OMPOSITE L EADING E CONOMIC I NDICATORS Need for quick, broad indicator for overall economic activity for future immediate future Extracting signals and producing estimates for a better understanding of cyclical movements This work is currently under construction Weighting system will be produced derived

20. II- E ARLY W ARNING I NDICATOR C. C OMPOSITE L EADING E CONOMIC I NDICATORS

21. C HALLENGES E NCOUNTERED  Rallying for resources  To keep an innovative team  Timeliness, periodicity and availability of high frequency indicators – historic emphasis annual data  Weekly CPI management  Composite Leading Indicator  Lack of sufficient indicators  Methodological improvements in existing data

22. T O S UMMARIZE  Priorities in Countries May Differ  Improvements of Current Periodicity & Timeliness of Data Disseminations is the Key to Confront Global Challenges in Time

23. Thank you