1. Adaptation of forest operations to a changing climate Dr. Georgios Xenakis and Duncan Ray Ecology Division Forest Research, Northern Research Station, Roslin Midlothian EH25 9SY, UK Email: georgios.xenakis@forestry.gsi.gov.ukgeorgios.xenakis@forestry.gsi.gov.uk 5 th November 2008 Silver Springs Hote, Cork Mitigating climate change: The challenges and opportunities for Forestry in Ireland

2. 11/01/2016 2 What is climate change ‘Climate change’ refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to internal processes and/or external forcings. Some external influences, such as changes in solar radiation and volcanism, occur naturally and contribute to the total natural variability of the climate system. Other external changes, such as the change in composition of the atmosphere that began with the industrial revolution, are the result of human activity. IPCC 4 th assessment report: WG1 Report “The physical science basis” Chapter 9 pp.667

3. 11/01/2016 3 Adapting to climate change Urgent need to provide knowledge and guidance to continue to sustainably manage and maintain resilient forests and woodlands well adapted to climate change

4. 11/01/2016 4 Atmospheric CO 2 and temperature: love or hate relationship

5. 11/01/2016 5 CO 2 concentrations: the last millenium Source - Ernst (2007) Woods Hole Projections of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations for a range of global population and economic growth scenarios

6. 11/01/2016 6 IPCC emissions scenarios Source SRES (2000) IPCC Special Report, WMO/UN

7. 11/01/2016 7 1961 - 1990 2000 - 2050 2050 - 2080 Mar–Oct increase of 200-300 day.degrees (15%) across Ireland by 2080 Accumulated temperature

8. 11/01/2016 8 1960 -1990 2050 - 2080 Moisture Deficit

9. 11/01/2016 9 What do we expect for the future? Warmer climate Winter Milder winters Dormancy, autumn frost, pests and diseases Summer Warmer & longer growing season Increased growth (water & nutrients not limiting) Better quality broadleaved species Increased flowering and seed production Wetter winter and drier summers Winter Shallow and restricted rooting Increased risk of wind disturbance Soil damage – winter operations Summer Increased risk of summer drought stress Drought restricted growth

10. 11/01/2016 10 How to adapt forest management? Which species will grow? Where should they come from? What type of silviculture? Where do we get all these information?

11. 11/01/2016 11 CLIMADAPT project: within the CLIM-IT programme of research Funded by COFORD’s 2007- 2013 forest research programme Objective: Develop a decision support methodology, similar to ESC, using soil and climatic information for Ireland that can be used to assess changes in species suitability and yield resulting from different climate scenarios The CLIMADAPT project

12. Ecological Site Classification INPUTS Soil type rooting depth, stones, texture Lithology & soil type Humus form Indicator plants, %cover Grid Reference Elevation ECOLOGICAL SITE CLASSIFICATION SITE TYPE Accumulated temperature Moisture deficit Windiness Continentality Soil Moisture Regime Soil Nutrient Regime ESC FACTORS Tree species suitability ESC yield prediction Native woodland suitability OUTPUTS

13. 11/01/2016 13 CatchmentNationalLandscapeRegionalStand Species suitable at multiple scales

14. 11/01/2016 14 CLIMADAPT methodology Methodology Climate Global circulation model for present and future AT, MD, DAMS Delphi process June 2007 Species suitability threshold Soil grid Develop suitability curves Validate against data (when available, e.g., Sitka spruce) Build Graphic User Interface (GUI) and related technology

15. 11/01/2016 15 Source: Broadmeadow et al. 2005, Forestry 78(2) Provenances - Climate matching

16. 11/01/2016 16 Insects and pathogens

17. 11/01/2016 17 Wind storms

18. 11/01/2016 18 Annual weather & extreme events

19. 11/01/2016 19 N-S transect North South Frequency (years per decade) No data North South Frequency of high MD (>=200mm) for A2 ActualPredicted

20. 11/01/2016 20 W-E transect East West Drought frequency (years per decade) No data ActualPredicted Frequency of high MD (>=200mm) for A2

21. 11/01/2016 21 Climate Warmer climate Increased growth (>1 YC) Faster growth of pests Wetter in winter – drier in summer Increased winter water logging – shallower roots Reduced tree stability Species choice and where Droughty soils unsuitable for spruce More Douglas fir in S & E – more drought tolerant More pedunculate oak less ash, beech S & E more favourable for quality broadleaves Colonisation of ‘non-native’ trees Climate change tolerant species – Monterey pine, southern beech (rauli and roble) Climate tolerant provenances from NW France Silviculture Continuous Cover Forestry (CCF) – LISS Mixed species stands Mixed structure & age class stands Risk management Increased windthrow Invertebrate pests – e.g. green spruce aphid, bark beetles Strategic planning DSS & Knowledge management – strategic and operational planning with CLIMADAPT Adaptation recommendations