1. Weekly Review and Outlook

2. Weekly Review week commencing 7/12/15

3. Last Week’s Key Themes  Euro sentiment  NZD rate decision (sell NZD)  CHF rate decision  Caution

4. Euro sentiment EUR Index D1

5. NZD Rate Decision Wednesday – 0.25% reduction as expected. “Monetary policy needs to be accommodative to help ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range. We expect to achieve this at current interest rate settings..." NZD Index D1

6. CHF Rate Decision CHF Index D1 Thursday – no change. “The Swiss franc is still significantly overvalued."

7. GBP Rate Decision GBP Index D1 Thursday. No change, as expected. "The projected return of CPI inflation to the target depends on an increase in domestic cost growth..."

9. Last Week’s News Events  Oil down 10% on week. CAD suffers.  Light news and volumes.  The China Foreign Exchange Trading System moves from measuring CHY strength against USD only, to a basket of currencies, showing the Yuan has appreciated by 2.93% since end 2014, despite weakening against the USD.  US Retail Sales on Friday – tradable and loss making (with small stop).

10. GBPNZD D1 entry

11. EURUSD D1

12. GBPCAD D1

13. AUDUSD D1

14. GBPJPY D1 whole channel

15. Weekly Review

16. Weekly Outlook week commencing 14/12/15

17. USDX D1

20. WTI D1

21. WTI W1

24. S&P500

25. All stock markets across the globe were down on the week.

27. May be moving to RISK OFF

28. This Week’s News Events

31. Currency Summary USD The USD is the strongest currency in the long term. Fed holds door open for December hike. Markets say 79% chance of hike in Dec. EUR Bearish due to QE. Portugal hovering like a bad smell. Draghi disappoints markets hugely on 3/12. Euro surges. Still fundamentally weak, but positive sentiment seen since Draghi’s announcement. GBP Strong. Rate increase expected mid 2016. GBP gets caught up in USD weakness and is sold off. Carney says wage growth insufficient to propel inflation to 2%. Lower inflation now forecast by BoE. Institutions see rate hike delay from Q1 to Q3 2016. Focus still on non-existent wage growth. NZD Weak. More rate reductions expected. RBNZ say recent NZD appreciation dampening inflation, making hike more likely. Markets say 50% chance of rate reduction in Dec. RBNZ say new reduced rate should be sufficient for monetary policy objectives. CAD Weak. Heavily correlated to WTI crude oil price. JPY Weak due to massive QE. All eyes on oil price now to bring inflation up to 2% target in H2 2016. Kuroda says current policy sufficient. Now alluding to weakness in CPI. CHF Weak due to negative interest rates. Swiss central bank often intervenes to weaken the currency. I have never traded this currency and probably never will. SNB re-iterate their view that currency very over-valued. AUD Neutral. Central bank dovish at Aug rate announcement seeing no need for more rate reduction. RBA’s Stevens remains confident all is on track. Stevens remains neutral but says any change will be to reduce interest rates. Great employment nos in Nov lessen any chance of rate reduction. Neutral

33. GBPNZD D1 entry

34. EURUSD D1

35. GBPCAD D1

36. USDCAD W1 Current price last seen mid 2004.

37. USDCAD D1

38. AUDUSD D1

39. GBPJPY D1 whole channel

40.  What is the risk position?  Look after GBPNZD.  Sell EUR.  CAD vs oil.  Tech trades – AUDUSD and GBPJPY.  Fed rate decision.  BoJ rate decision.  Trading may be over for 2015. This Week’s Key Themes