1. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt ASSIGNING WEIGHTS TO SCENARIOS USING MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS The Case of Norwegian Defence Planning Iver Johansen, FFI

2. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt NORWAY’S TWO-SIDED SECURITY AGENDA National Security Domain –Direct challenges –Political choice limited –Challenges cover a wide spectrum Balance of military capacities International Security Domain –Indirect challenges –Large set of alternative strategies Commit/not commit How much What kind –Interoperatbility Niche capacities

3. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt Defence structure alternatives ABC Force structure effectiveness ??? 1 2 34 5 61 2 34 5 61 2 34 5 6 Capabilities in scenarios 1-6 NO COMMON MEASURE OF EFFECTIVENESS

4. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt SCENARIO WEIGHTS: RISK ANALYSIS Risk = probability x consequence Steps: (i)Map spectrum of security challenges (ii)Determine probabilities (iii)Estimate consequences c p

5. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt SCENARIO WEIGHTS: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Use scenarios (planning situations) in the bottom nodes of the hierarchy Two stage way of thinking: (i)Connect military tasks to top-level objectives (ii)Tasks are assessed in terms of their relations to specific scenarios –Deriving: a)Relative importance of tasks per scenario b)Any given scenario’s contribution to the total amount of any specific military task

6. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt GENERIC MODEL NATIONAL SECURITY Security policy goals Defence policy goals Defence main tasks Defence secondary tasks Scenarios S 1 S 2S 3S 4S 5S 6

7. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt Secondary military tasks Main military tasks Defence goals Security goals NATIONAL SECURITY Secure Pol AutonomySecure Nat Territory Prevent/Det er Mil Threats Peacekeeping, Security Assistance Combat Mil Aggression National Crisis Management Base Defence Border Control Surveill/Jurisd (maritime)Infrastructure Protection Missile DefenceSecure POEs Land CombatCounter Air Sovereignty, Jurisdiction Secure Nat Population ASW National Defence Against Terrorism Territorial Defence (National) Ensure Allied Force Contributions Surveill/Jurisd (air) C2 WarfareASuW Area Control - Land (int ops) Contribute Nat Sec Pol Consensus Allied-/Multinational Warfare CIMIC (int ops)Area Control - Maritime (int ops) Planning Situations P1: Peacetime tasks P2: Terrorist attack P3: Lim mil attack P4: Crises/War nat domain P5: Peace-keeping P6: War int domain

8. Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt