1. Step 1: List Causes & Constraints Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. This research was funded by Grant RO1 HL 084767 from the National Heart Blood and Lung Institute.

2. Step 1: List Causes & Constraints This lecture continues from the previous overview section

3. Step 1: List Causes & Constriants Causes lead to success Constraint prevents causes from succeeding or directly lead to failure

4. Causes Are Events An event

5. Causes Are a Sometime Thing An event Occurs some times

6. Causes Precede Effects An event Occurs some times Must precede effect

7. Causes & Effect Tend to Occur Together An event Occurs some times Must precede effect Frequent association

8. Counterfactual An event Occurs some times Must precede effect Frequent association Absent causes, absent effect

9. Describes a Mechanism An event Occurs some times Must precede effect Frequent association Absent causes, absent effect Describes a mechanism

10. Focus on Modifiable Causes An event Occurs some times Must precede effect Frequent association Absent causes, absent effect Describes mechanism Modifiable

11. Example Description Is an event? In next 2 weeks, is always present? Precedes effect? If causes absent, then no effect? Mechanism clear? Modifiable by the person? Plan to shower at gym YesNo Yes, plans always precede exercise Yes: "I would have exercised if I had showered at gym Yes, shower at gym makes exercise more accessible Yes, I can remove shower equipment from home Plan to bike to work YesNo Yes, plans always precede exercise Yes: "I would have exercised if it were not for the rain." Yes, planning for biking leads to biking to work, which is exercise Yes, I can arrange for a shower at work Sleep early Yesno Yes, occurs the night before Yes: "I would have time to exercise if I had woken up early and not gone to bed late." Yes, sleeping early leads to waking up early which provides us with time to exercise Yes, I can record late shows for earlier viewing another day Rain YesNoConcurrent Yes, on biking to work No

12. Lecture Continues Step 2: Make a Causal Model