1. Demographic and Economic Trends in Oklahoma and Johnston County - Department of Agricultural Economics - - Division of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources - - Oklahoma State University - Tishomingo National Fish Hatchery Paddlefish National Guard Armory

2. By: Suzette Barta, Asst. Extension Economist OSU, Stillwater Susan Trzebiatowski, Student Assistant OSU, Stillwater Jack Frye, Community Development Specialist OSU, Ada Virginia McCarthick, County Extension Director OSU, Tishomingo Mike Woods, Extension Economist OSU, Stillwater

3. Part I Rural Development in Oklahoma

4. Population Loss Oklahoma’s population increased by 9.7% from 1990-2000, according to the Census Bureau. The US population increased by about 13.2%. As a result, Oklahoma’s number of Representatives to the House decreased from 6 to 5.

5. Employment Opportunities If I could change one thing about my community, it would be: “…better paying jobs and more of them.” Pushmataha County Community Survey, AE-02024, March 2002 Old Frisco Depot in Antlers

6. Low Income Why does Per Capita Income in Oklahoma lag the rest of the nation? Some possibilities: Low Educational Attainment Cost of Living Cultural Attitudes Different Occupational Mix than U.S. Inadequate Transportation Systems Oklahoma League of Economists, Spring 1999 Policy Survey of Members

7. Population Trends... Across the United States, population growth in the “bread basket” states is slow relative to the rest of the country. In Oklahoma, the fastest growing counties are those in the central and eastern portions of the state--often bordering Tulsa and Oklahoma Counties. Western counties in Oklahoma are losing population. In general, non-metro counties are losing population relative to metro counties....In Oklahoma and Nationwide

8. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

11. 3.3% 7.1%5 Percent of Population Living in Non-Metropolitan Areas for Each State 0%-14% Non-metro Population 51% or more Non-metro Population 26%-50% Non-metro Population 15%-25% Non-metro Population 0% 1.5% 7.3% 7.9% 8.2%8.6% 11.7% 13.4% 15.1% 15.4% 16.1% 16.9% 17.8% 20% 18.8% 21.8% 23.5% 24.6% 27.8% 26.8% 27.8% 29.5% 30% 30.1% 30.7% 32.2% 32.1% 32.4% 37.6% 39.2% 43% 43.3% 47.3% 51% 51.2% 54.6% 55.7% 57.6% 58.5% 59.7% 60.6% 63.9% 65.3% 66.1% 67.3% 70% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis for 1999.

12. Population: Metro vs. Non-Metro 57%59%61% 3,025,4873,145,5763,450,654

13. ADAIR ALFALFA ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CUSTER DELAWARE DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY KIOWA LATIMER LOVE MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS ROGERS SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD WASHINGTON SHALL MAR- MAJOR KINGFISHER BEAVERTEXAS LOGAN CREEK LINCOLN OKFUSKEE McINTOSH CADDO MCCLAIN GARVIN SEMINOLEPOTTA- WATOMIE HUGHES PITTSBURG HASKELL LE FLORE COAL JOHNSTON PONTOTOC MCCURTAIN CIMARRON Over 930 Average for the state of Oklahoma = 50.2 100-388 50-99 Population Density for Oklahoma Counties Population per Square Mile (2000) 10-49 Less than 10

14. Percent of Total Population Under 18 Years Source: U.S. Census Bureau

15. Percent of Total Population Over 65 Years Source: U.S. Census Bureau

16. Employment Trends... Employment growth has been greatest in the eastern half of the state. Western counties are losing jobs relative to eastern counties. Unemployment rates are higher in non- metropolitan counties....In Oklahoma

17. ADAIR ALFALFA ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CUSTER DELAWARE DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY KIOWA LATIMER LOVE MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS ROGERS SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD WASHINGTON SHALL MAR- MAJOR KINGFISHER BEAVERTEXAS LOGAN CREEK LINCOLN OKFUSKEE McINTOSH CADDO MCCLAIN GARVIN SEMINOLEPOTTA- WATOMIE HUGHES PITTSBURG HASKELL LE FLORE COAL JOHNSTON PONTOTOC MCCURTAIN CIMARRON Percentage Employment Growth 1990-2000 Over 22% Growth 10%-22% Growth 0 to 10% Growth Negative Growth Shades of purple indicate growth that is slower than the state’s growth of 22%.

18. Oklahoma Unemployment Rates, 1990-2001, State, Metro & Non-Metro Areas

19. Employment Growth in Metro and Non-metro Oklahoma, 1995-2000 Source: Regional Economic Information System, BEA

20. Manufacturing Employment for Non-metropolitan Areas in Oklahoma, 1980-2000 Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis

21. ADAIR ALFALFA ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CUSTER DELAWARE DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY KIOWA LATIMER LOVE MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS ROGERS SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD WASHINGTON SHALL MAR- MAJOR KINGFISHER BEAVERTEXAS LOGAN CREEK LINCOLN OKFUSKEE McINTOSH CADDO MCCLAIN GARVIN SEMINOLEPOTTA- WATOMIE HUGHES PITTSBURG HASKELL LE FLORE COAL JOHNSTON PONTOTOC MCCURTAIN CIMARRON Manufacturing Employment as a Percent of Total Employment for Oklahoma Counties, 1999 Greater than 20% 15.1% to 20% 9.63% to +15% Less than 9.63% State percent is 9.63%. U.S. percent is 11.76%

22. ADAIR ALFALFA ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CUSTER DELAWARE DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY KIOWA LATIMER LOVE MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS ROGERS SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD WASHINGTON SHALL MAR- MAJOR KINGFISHER BEAVERTEXAS LOGAN CREEK LINCOLN OKFUSKEE McINTOSH CADDO MCCLAIN GARVIN SEMINOLEPOTTA- WATOMIE HUGHES PITTSBURG HASKELL LE FLORE COAL JOHNSTON PONTOTOC MCCURTAIN CIMARRON Greater than 1.0 0.75 - 0.99 0.50 – 0.74 1999 County Trade Pull Factors 0.25 – 0.49 Less than 0.25 Source: Oklahoma Business Bulletin, October 2000

23. Income Trends... Oklahoma per capita income falls behind most of our surrounding states. Non-metro PCI in Oklahoma lags metro PCI. Although all counties show some growth in income, Central Oklahoma and the far eastern counties show the fastest growth in total personal income....In Oklahoma

24. ADAIR ALFALFA ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CUSTER DELAWARE DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY KIOWA LATIMER LOVE MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS ROGERS SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD WASHINGTON SHALL MAR- MAJOR KINGFISHER BEAVERTEXAS LOGAN CREEK LINCOLN OKFUSKEE McINTOSH CADDO MCCLAIN GARVIN SEMINOLEPOTTA- WATOMIE HUGHES PITTSBURG HASKELL LE FLORE COAL JOHNSTON PONTOTOC MCCURTAIN CIMARRON Total Personal Income Percentage Growth, 1990-2000. Greater than 60% 41%-60% 21%-40% 0-20% Shades of green indicate growth that is slower than the state’s rate of growth of 60%.

25. Per Capita Income for Oklahoma and Surrounding States: 1990-2000 Source: Regional Economic Information System, BEA OK-Metro OK-Nonmetro OK

26. Average Wage per Job, 1999 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

27. Housing Cost Index

28. ADAIR ALFALFA ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CUSTER DELAWARE DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY KIOWA LATIMER LOVE MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS ROGERS SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD WASHINGTON SHALL MAR- MAJOR KINGFISHER BEAVERTEXAS LOGAN CREEK LINCOLN OKFUSKEE McINTOSH CADDO MCCLAIN GARVIN SEMINOLEPOTTA- WATOMIE HUGHES PITTSBURG HASKELL LE FLORE COAL JOHNSTON PONTOTOC MCCURTAIN CIMARRON Top Ten Counties with Greatest Percent of Total Personal Income from Farm Earnings, 2000

29. ADAIR ALFALFA ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CANADIAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CUSTER DELAWARE DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON HARPER JACKSON JEFFERSON KAY KIOWA LATIMER LOVE MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS ROGERS SEQUOYAH STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD WASHINGTON SHALL MAR- MAJOR KINGFISHER BEAVERTEXAS LOGAN CREEK LINCOLN OKFUSKEE McINTOSH CADDO MCCLAIN GARVIN SEMINOLEPOTTA- WATOMIE HUGHES PITTSBURG HASKELL LE FLORE COAL JOHNSTON PONTOTOC MCCURTAIN CIMARRON Employment growth and per capita income growth greater than US average. PCI Average Annual Growth Rate for the US =5.06% Employment Average Annual Growth Rate for the US= 2.01% Employment growth greater than US average. Per capita income growth less than US average. Employment growth less than US average. Per capita income growth greater than US average. Employment growth and per capita income growth less than US average. Average Annual Employment and Per Capita Income Growth by County 1990-2000: Relative to U.S. Average.

30. Part II. A Summary of Economic Conditions in Johnston County Bank of the Chickasaw Nation Murray State College Blue River

31. Population for Johnston County 198019902000% Change 1990-2000 Bromide 1801621630.6% Mannsville 56839658748.2% Milburn 37625931220.5% Mill Creek 4313363401.2% Ravia 48739545916.2% Tishomingo 3,2123,1673,162-0.2% Wapanucka 47240144511.0% Remainder of County 4,6304,9165,0452.6% Johnston Co. 10,35610,03210,5134.8%

32. Population of Johnston County, Oklahoma, 1980-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

33. Population, Housing Units, and Average Household Size for Johnston County, Oklahoma 2000 Avg. Household Size for Oklahoma: 2.49 Source: U.S. Census Bureau PopulationTotal Housing Units Avg HH Size Johnston Co 10,5134,7822.53 Bromide 163802.59 Mannsville 5872532.66 Milburn 3121242.74 Mill Creek 3401472.72 Ravia 4592012.62 Tishomingo 3,1621,4072.39 Wapanucka 4452082.56

34. Percent of Total Housing Units in Johnston County, 2000 Total Housing Units in Johnston County – 4,782 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

35. Johnston County Population for Age Groups 65 & Over and Under Age 19, 1990-2000 Source: Woods and Poole, 2002

36. Percent of Total Enrollment in Johnston County, Oklahoma, 2000 Total Enrollment for Johnston County – 2,768 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

37. Percent of Education Attained in Johnston County for Persons Age 25 and Over, 2000 Total persons 25 years and over in Johnston County –6,759 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

38. Percent of Education Attained in Oklahoma for Persons Age 25 and Over, 2000 Total persons 25 years and over in Oklahoma – 2,203,173 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

39. Total Employment for Johnston County, OK, 1990-2002 Source: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission

40. Unemployment Rates for Johnston County and Oklahoma, 1990-2002 Source: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission

41. Location Quotients for Johnston County, 1995-2000

42. Per Capita Income for Johnston County and Oklahoma Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis

43. Transfer Payments by Type for Johnston County, Oklahoma, 1990-2000 Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis

44. Sales Subject to Sales Tax for Johnston County 1992-2002 Source: ORIGINS

45. Total Farm Labor and Proprietors’ Income for Johnston, Oklahoma

46. Selected Farm Characteristics of Johnston County, Oklahoma, 1997 Number of Farms624 Avg. Farm Size (acres)535 % Land Area in Farms81.0% Avg. Age of Operator53.4 Avg. Mkt. Value of Ag. Products Sold per Farm $44,165 Source: 1997 Census of Agriculture

47. Part III. Retail Trade Analysis for Communities in Johnston County Prepared by the Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service Bell at Chickasaw Capitol Bldg Fish Hatchery Tishomingo

48. Population for Tishomingo and Other Towns in Johnston County 1980-2000

49. Sales Tax Collections for Tishomingo, OK, 1980-2002 1%-3% 2% 1%-3%

50. Estimated Taxable Sales for Tishomingo, OK, 1980-2002

51. What is Trade Area Capture? Trade Area Capture estimates the number people that shop in your town annually. TAC is estimated from your town’s estimated taxable sales figures obtained from the Oklahoma Tax Commission.

52. Trade Area Capture for Tishomingo, OK 1980-2002

53. What is a Pull Factor? A Pull Factor is an index calculated so that trade areas can be compared across different cities and towns. A Pull Factor is the town’s Trade Area Capture Divided by the town’s Population. A PF > 1.0 implies that a town is drawing in shoppers over and above its own population. A PF < 1.0 implies that a town is not capturing the retail dollars of its own residents.

54. Pull Factors for Tishomingo, OK, 1980-2002

55. Pull Factors for Cities and Towns in Johnston County, 1980-2002

56. Pull Factors By Average City Size

57. Pull Factors for Tishomingo & for Cities with Population 1,000-5,000: 1980-2002

58. Sales gap coefficients are interpreted in exactly the same way as pull factors. The only difference is that 8 distinct retail categories are analyzed--based on SIC codes.

59. SIC Codes for Gap Analysis

60. Gap Analysis for Tishomingo:1998-2002

61. Gap Analysis for Mill Creek:1998-2002

62. Gap Analysis for Ravia:2000-2002

63. Questions?