1. 6 th Annual International ESP Conference 2013 Session 4C Overview of using the tools of Mediated Modelling, Ecosystem Valuation studies and MIMES in forecasting trends on the value of ecosystem services Marjan van den Belt, Anne-Gaelle Ausseil and Roelof Boumans 26-30 August 2013,Bali, Indonesia

2. Workshop overview Introductions (10 minutes) Case study ; Manawatu (10 minutes) Benefit Transfer Method (10 minutes) Mediated Modelling (MM) (10 minutes) Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) (20 minutes) Coffee break (10 min) Inter-activity (50 min)

3. Introductions Circulate participant list (name and email) only if happy to receive workshop results.

4. Workshop overview Introductions (10 minutes) Case study ; Manawatu (10 minutes) Benefit Transfer Method (10 minutes) Mediated Modelling (MM) (10 minutes) Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) (20 minutes) Coffee break (10 min) Inter-activity (50 min)

5. The Manawatū River Catchment Catchment area 594,400 ha 4 (of 9) highly erodable sub-catchments

6. The Manawatū River Catchment Highly modified catchment 133,000 people 320,000 cows Protecting assets, livelihoods

7. Manawatu land cover: Pre- and Post Settlement Source: Landcare Research. Complements of Anthony Cole

8. Workshop overview Introductions (10 minutes) Case study ; Manawatu (10 minutes) Benefit Transfer Method (10 minutes) Mediated Modelling (MM) (10 minutes) Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) (20 minutes) Coffee break (10 min) Inter-activity (50 min)

9. Rapid Ecosystem Service Assessments ES value in US 94 $: 33 trillion GDP in US 94 $: 18 trillion ES value in NZ 94 $: 228 billion GDP in NZ 94 $: 84 billion ES in NZ 2006 $: 6 billion GDP in NZ 2006 $: 7.4 billion Sources:Costanza et al. 1997 Patterson and McDonald 1999 van den Belt et al, 2009 GLOBAL NEW ZEALAND MANAWATU-WANGANUI

10. Map of Benefit Transferred information on the Manawatu

11. Other Benefit Transfer Methods Ecosystem Valuation Toolkit (EVT) The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) InVest

12. Workshop overview Introductions (10 minutes) Case study ; Manawatu (10 minutes) Benefit Transfer Method (10 minutes) Mediated Modelling (MM) (10 minutes) Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) (20 minutes) Coffee break (10 min) Inter-activity (50 min)

13. Mediated Modelling ‘Model building with, rather than for, people’ Auckland Mediated Modelling, Sustainable Pathways 2, 2012

14. IFS-MM Result Land Use / Land Cover Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake, Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture Ecosystem Services Functioning index (slider) Values Cost of actions Benefit Transferred ES Stakeholder dialogue Actions Erosion control (SLUI) Nutrient management Riparian Planting Waste Water Treatment Restoration Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss

15. IFS management scenarios

16. Sediment loading in tonnes per year 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040 5 Million 3 Million 1 Million

17. Sediment loading in tonnes per year 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040 5 Million 3 Million 1 Million

18. Sediment loading in tonnes per year 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040 5 Million 3 Million 1 Million

19. Workshop overview Introductions (10 minutes) Case study ; Manawatu (10 minutes) Benefit Transfer Method (10 minutes) Mediated Modelling (MM) (10 minutes) Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) (20 minutes) Coffee break (10 min) Inter-activity (50 min)

20. Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake, Ecosystem Services Provided Stakeholder dialogue Actions Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture - + Pressures Demographics, Global markets, Climate change -+ -+ Ecosystem Services Demanded ES Values Cost of actions + - - - + Causality within the sustainability loop SUPPLY DEMAND

21. Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake, Ecosystem Services Provided Actions Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture - + Pressures -+ -+ Ecosystem Services Demanded ES Values + - - + Economic Services - + Economic Sectors + + Causality for sustainable economies Cost of actions -

22. Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake, Ecosystem Services Provided Actions Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture - + Pressures -+ -+ Ecosystem Services Demanded Values + - - + Economic Services - + Economic Sectors + + Causality for non-sustainability Economies Subsidies + Cost of actions -

23. Manawatu MIMES - Qualitative overview Catchments Hydrological model Land cover Demographics coefficients Land use Demographics: Built capital Water routing Land environments Land cover Land use: N loading Water Land use Demographics: population effect Rain Ecosystem goods and services model Conversion Ecosystem Services Ecosystem Services Water quality standards Catchments

24. Manawatu MIMES – Data base links Catchments WATYIELD The New Zealand Land Cover Database Demographics By ANZSIC 2006 – industry classification Land use change as emergent behavior Input for local investment scenarios FENZ 13 underlying climate, landform and soil variables 8 Land covers 7 land uses 7x7 Land use change Demographics: 1 Population effect 2 Business as Usual 3 Restoration cliflo@ni wa.co.n z Dynamics in goods and service trade-offs Emergent dynamics in Ecosystem Services (see output slide 17) Emergent dynamics in Ecosystem Services (see output slide 17) Resource Management Act 1991 Freshwater Ecosystems of New Zealand (FENZ GIS) Land Environments of New Zealand (LENZ) Database 8 user groups Input for land use change scenarios

25. Clean water provision Food & fibre Food production Nutrient loss (OVERSEER) Forestry Climate Input Soil Environment Timber production Livestock farm types Habitat Provision Water flow regulation Water yield (WATYIELD) Habitat provision Erosion control Sediment loss (NZEEM) Natural ecosystems GIS framework Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake, Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture -+ SUPPLY Land use/coverIndicatorsES

26. The Manuwatu MIMES User Interface for Scenario Modeling The Introduction Page

27. Habitat provision (ecosystem service)

28. Food supply (agricultural sector) Meat supplyMilk solids supply

29. Interface for the design of Erosion Control scenarios

30. Sediment loss

31. SLUI scenario

32. The SLUI Scenario Run

33. Interface for the Design of Nutrient Management Scenarios

34. Nutrient loss

35. Interface for the Design of Fencing and Riparian Planting Scenarios

36. Interface for the Design of Scenarios concerning the Investment into Natural Capital

37. Interface for the Design of Waste Water Treatment Scenarios

38. Water yield

39. Manawatu Land Use (ha) by Land Covers 1990 Land U se Dairy Cropping Forestry Sheep & Beef Residential Industry Services Conservatio n Water Use Land Cover Urban11468 Pasture50685170106 Cropping6591 Wetland210 Forest858522665 Shrub63697 Water3092 Riparian222

40. Ecosystems perform Ecosystem Functions (estimated)  Ecosystem Functions De-nitrification Water storage Habitat conditions for wildlife Habitat conditions for Soil organisms Growing of Biomass Buildings and and Roads Land Cover or Ecosystems Riparianlowmediu m highmediu m Croppinglowhighlow Forestmediu m high Pasturelow highlow Shrublowmedium low Urbanhigh Waterlowhigh low Wetlandhigh low

41. Ecosystem services needed for economic productivity (indexed) Ecosystem services Economic Sectors Demographic Groups Farmers Recreationists Foresters Iwi Urbanites Conservationist Industrialists Services Ecosystems Services Waste assimilationhigh Flood protectionlow high Habitat provisioning mediumhigh Recreational Cultural high Pollinationhigh Fish and Water Quality high mediu m high Soil Formationhigh Water Supplyhighmediumhighmediu m Food provisioninghigh mediu m

42. Economic sectors produce Environmental Externalities (estimated) Impacts Nitrogen Loading Urbanization Restoration Erosion Demographic Groups Farmershigh Recreationistsmediumlow Foresterslow high Iwi Urbaniteshigh Conservationistshigh Industrialistshigh Serviceshigh

43. Externalities have impact on Ecosystems (estimated) Ecosystems Externalities

44. Complex model, uncomplicated to use

45. COFFEE BREAK

46. End-user MIMES Manawatu workshop 16 August 2013 Landcare Research, Department of Conservation, Waikato Regional Council, Southland Regional Council, Auckland Council, Greater Wellington Regional Council, Ministry of Primary Industries, Ministry for the Environment, SCION, Market Economics, Massey University

47. End-user survey results

49. Workshop overview Introductions Case study ; Manawatu Benefit Transfer Method Mediated Modelling (MM) Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) Coffee break Inter-activity

50. Toolkit assessment Benefit Transfer StrengthsWeaknesses Strengths WeaknessesStrengthsWeaknesses Mediated Modeling Multi-scale Integrated Modelling What are the strengths and weaknesses of the individual ESV tools, considering context, process and content? What are the opportunities and threats for a toolkit? Opportunities and Threats?

51. Feedback survey appreciated! We’ll be in touch THANK YOU! Marjan, Anne-Gaelle and Roel