1. Improving Internal Migration Estimates: Update Esther R. Miller Presentation at blah blah

2. Overview of Presentation Step 1:Obtain Administrative Records Step 2:Assign Characteristics Step 3:Assign Migration Status Step 4:Scenario Step 5:Migration Status Step 6:Compare Outcome to “Truth” Step 7:Future Research

3. 3 Step 1: Obtain Administrative Records and match by PIK Internal Revenue Service (IRS) 1040 files –Address as of April 15, 2002 (Y1) –Address as of April 15, 2003 (Y2) –Number of exemptions – filer, spouse, child, parent Social Security Numident File –Collapse records to Census Numident Person Characteristics File (PCF) –File contains modeled age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all persons with an SSN

4. 4 Step 2:Assign Characteristics: Return Based Methodology –Age Filer and spouse exemptions are assigned filer’s age from PCF Child exemptions are assigned to a 19 and under age category Parent exemptions are assigned to a 65+ age category –Sex Filer is assigned filer’s sex from PCF Spouse exemption is assigned opposite sex of filer Child and parent exemptions are assigned sex by random number generator

5. 5 Step 2:Assign Characteristics: Return Based Methodology (cont.) –Race and Hispanic origin Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s race and Hispanic origin from PCF

6. Step 2:Assign Characteristics: Person Base Age, sex, race, Hispanic origin assigned for filer, spouse, child exemption(s), and parent exemption(s) directly from match to PCF

7. 7 Step 3Assign Migration Status: Compare FIPS code Y1-Y2 –Return Based Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s Y1 and Y2 state and county FIPS codes –Person Based –Filer assigned filer Y1 and Y2 State and County FIPS codes –Spouse assigned spouse Y1 and Y2 State and County FIPS codes –All dependents assigned dependent’s Y1 and Y2 State and County FIPS codes

8. 8 Step 4:Scenario: Migration 01-02 and 02-03 200120022003 Type of Exemption AgeStateStatus Type of Exemption AgeState Filer64NJSameFiler66NJ Spouse56NJSameDivorce58MA Daughter14NJSameDaughter16MA Son20NJSameSon22NJ Son20NJSameSon22WI

9. 9 Step 5:Migration Status Returns Base (as is) 2001 - 2022002 - 2003 Type of Exemption AgeMigration Status Type of Exemption AgeMigration Status Filer65nonmoverFiler66nonmover Spouse65nonmover Son or Daughter < = 19nonmover Son or Daughter <= 19nonmoverSon or Daughter <= 19nonmover Son or Daughter <= 19nonmover

10. 10 Step 5:Migration Status Person Based 2001 - 2022002 - 2003 Type of Exemption AgeMigration Status Type of Exemption AgeMigration Status Filer65nonmoverFiler66nonmover Spouse57nonmoverFiler58OUT and IN Daughter15nonmoverDaughter16OUT and IN Son21nonmoverSon22nonmover Son21nonmoverFiler22OUT and IN

11. Step 6:Compare Outcome to “Truth” – Returns Based 2001 – 2002 Migration Status is correct Spouse’s age ismiscoded Dependent’s sex may or may not be miscoded Twin’s Ages are miscoded 2002 – 2003 Lose Migration Status (and exemptions) for Divorced Spouse, Child and Student Dependent’s sex may or may not be miscoded Dependent’s age is miscoded

12. Step 6:Compare Outcome to “Truth” – Returns Based 2001 – 2002 Accurate Ages Accurate Sex for all exemptions Move “child” to “adult” age 2002 – 2003 Accurate Ages Accurate Sex all exemptions Pick up two additional filers Move “child” to “adult” age

13. Step 7: Future Research Present preliminary analysis Hyo Park, SDA 2004 Continue analysis by demographic characteristics at all levels of geography Incorporate full set of administrative records Medicare, HUD, 1099, ??, ??, ?? Incorporate ACS into research agenda