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Early Evaluation and Operational Applications of Total Lightning in AWIPS-2 Al Cope NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office Mount Holly, NJ

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Presentation on theme: "Early Evaluation and Operational Applications of Total Lightning in AWIPS-2 Al Cope NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office Mount Holly, NJ"— Presentation transcript:

1 Early Evaluation and Operational Applications of Total Lightning in AWIPS-2 Al Cope NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office Mount Holly, NJ alan.cope@noaa.gov Max Cell Max Cell Max Cell Max Cell Comparison of lightning from the DCLMA and ENTLN near Washington, D.C. Maximum lightning pulse and flash density for the most active cell was measured over a series of 2-minute intervals on a 2 km grid. Spatial patterns are qualitatively similar (above left) but the flash/pulse densities are several times higher from DCLMA (above right). A total lightning detection network has been developed by Earth Networks, Inc. (ENTLN) which, with varying efficiency, covers the entire continental U.S. Data from this network has been available to NWS forecasters over the Internet since 2011, and as of early 2015 the data is being received and displayed in the newly upgraded AWIPS-2 system. This data is separate from, and in addition to, the original NLDN CG lightning in AWIPS. While providing less detailed information about individual flashes than a local lightning mapping array, the new total lightning data set should be a significant advance over the older CG-only data. Total lightning data in AWIPS can be displayed as plots of individual flashes or as flash counts within grid cells. Several different temporal and spatial scales are available, ranging from 1 minute to 60 minutes and 1 km to 40 km. There are numerous possible combinations of lightning plots and grids, as well as combinations of lightning with radar, satellite and other data sources. Examination so far indicates that ENTLN data are roughly comparable to NLDN for CG lightning, while also providing a more complete depiction of lightning aloft, especially using the “pulse” data. One minute lightning plot loops combined with higher-frequency radar imagery can provide improved monitoring of storm evolution. Some ENTLN data issues remain, including occasional one-minute data dropouts and incomplete data in the latest frame of lightning loops. These issues currently limit the usefulness of the data, but they should be fixed in upcoming AWIPS builds. Some Statistical Comparisons Comparison of positive and negative CG flashes from NLDN and ENTLN: raw counts above left and ratios above right. ENTLN detects slightly more positive, NLDN more negative. Scatterplots of ENTLN vs NLDN CGs (N = 113). Each dot represents total flash counts during a 3-hour period within a CONUS sub-sector. Similar correlations with more scatter at higher flash counts. 1741Z KDIX Base Ref 1745Z KDIX Base Ref 1749Z KDIX Base Ref 1749Z KDIX Comp Ref Radar reflectivity and 1-minute lightning showing thunderstorms over Berks, County, PA, on June 30, 2015. New cell develops on southeast flank of existing storm. Blue arrows point to lightning activity. Case Studies/Examples Thunderstorm cell near BWI airport on August 17, 2015. IC/CC lightning appears 2011Z (1-minute flashes and pulses). First two CG flashes are detected at 2014Z. ENTLN data missing at 2014Z. 2008Z TBWI Base Ref2011Z TBWI Base Ref 2013Z TBWI Base Ref2014Z TBWI Base Ref No Lightning Coverage of NLDN (magenta) and ENTLN (cyan) networks on AWIPS. ENTLN coverage extends farther away from the CONUS. Blue rectangles are approximate CONUS sub-sectors used for lightning counts for statics at left. Line of T-storms crossing upper Chesapeake Bay on August 25, 2015. ENTLN pulse data shows lightning channel extending well east of main activity into Delaware. Both NLDN and ENTLN detect a CG in Delaware, in slightly different locations. Different Types of Lightning Displays in AWIPS Lightning Jumps and Severe Weather 15-minute ENTLN lightning over the northern mid-Atlantic region. IC flashes (purple) are much more frequent than CGs (yellow/cyan) so they are plotted beneath. Pulses are turned off, but would be even more densely packed. Cloud flash lightning as at left, but displayed as grid images at various resolutions. Grid values are just counts within each box, so max values increase as the grid boxes get bigger. Note, image smoothing has been applied here. 1km 3km 5km 8km W T WT Severe T-storm on July 28, 2014 produced wind damage and a separate tornado near Boston, MA. Both reports were preceded by rapid increases (“jumps”) in total lightning. Some archived ENTLN data (as used here) is available from their StreamerRT ® website for case studies. Future AWIPS builds should have the ability to track lightning from a single storm. Both NLDN and ENTLN show a greater percentage of negative CGs during the afternoon and evening, and better agreement with each other at that time. ENTLN total lightning by time of day and flash type (left). Average ratio of IC to CG is slightly over 4:1 and average ratio of pulses to ICs is just under 6:1 (right). These statistics are based on flash-count samples from AWIPS screen displays of 3-hour lightning plots over various sub-CONUS sectors (see figure at right). The 3-hour samples were taken from 1200 to 1200 UTC on selected days (24- hour periods) from mid August through early September 2015. A few periods with very little or no lightning were removed, leaving a total of 113 samples. NOTE: There have been significant issues with receipt and storage of ENTLN data in AWIPS-2 (1-min dropouts), so the ENTLN counts could be about 10 to 15 percent low. This problem should be corrected in AWIPS build 15.1.2-4. BWI New IC Lightning More IC Lightning New CG Lightning


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