1. © ITTO 2000 THE INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION Forest Products Markets in the New Millenium: Tropical Hardwoods ECE Timber Committee Market Discussions 10 October 2000 S. Johnson, ITTO Secretariat

2. Trends in ECE imports Logs and sawnwood more or less stable, but main markets shifting (northern Europe down, southern Europe up) Plywood stable or increasing in most markets SPWP from tropical countries increasing in all markets

3. ECE Tropical Log Imports

4. ECE Tropical Sawnwood Imports

5. ECE Tropical Veneer Imports

6. ECE Tropical Plywood Imports

7. Tropical Timber Trade, US$billions

8. Main Asian Markets Japan housing starts stagnant at about 1.2 million last 3 years, total slightly up in first 8 months 2000 but wood houses down HQAL affecting market Logs imports down about 8% this year, sawn up about 5%, ply stable China housing starts Jan-May up 40% on 1999, state bank mortgages +145% in 99, at least +100% in 2000

9. Supply situation Africa - Cameroon log ban, log supply shifting to Congo, CAR, Liberia, Gabon (?) ITTO assisting harmonizing of C&I, setting up of PAFC

10. Supply situation Asia - weakness of Euro hurting exporters to ECE Sabah ban on Selangan Batu exports Sabah processing capacity about 7 times long term sustainable cut Malay log exports up 25% in 99 lots of (unsustainable?/illegal?) logs going from Indonesia-Malaysia-China Indonesia ply production likely to fall 0.5- 1.0 million m3 this year due to provincial unrest, log shortage

11. Supply situation Latin America - Brazil monitoring mahogany exports more closely, all exports must be harvested as per management plan Peru banned all exports of mahogany and cedar temporarily, situation unclear

12. Issues facing ITTO: Certification Auditing guidelines to be developed to complement ITTO C&I, will assist countries to implement Assisting Malaysia and Indonesia with NTCC and LEI schemes, Fiji and Ghana projects also funded Tropical countries not well served by currently available international certification schemes

13. Breakdown of FSC Certified Forests

14. Map of FSC Certified Forests

15. Tropical Forest Certification Issues costs of attaining SFM and carrying out certification higher than in non-tropical forests ODA, FDI and market access to help achieve tropical SFM still lacking “green premium” (and market niche(s)) for certified timber small compared to cost of SFM/certification certification of products arising from forest conversion/plantation establishment certification of substitutes/life cycle analysis increasing trend towards SPWP

16. Issues facing ITTO: Illegal Logging ITTO currently in negotiations with Indonesia, Malaysia and several African countries to address Need to distinguish between coordinated illegal felling for export, for domestic mills and for subsistence, different strategies needed for each

17. THE INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION www.itto.or.jp