2. The Reconnection Agenda The Commonwealth Institute, Richmond, VA Jared Bernstein Bernstein@cbpp.org 12/3/15

3. 3 The Problem

4. 4 Sources: CBO, EPI

5. The Solutions (slide 3!) Full employment – Monetary (the Fed!) – Fiscal policy: taxes/transfers—a very cramped debate – (and their one-two punch) Investment in public goods, both physical and human capital Better balanced trade Labor standards Direct job creation Kill the “shampoo cycle” (financial market oversight) 5

6. Slack, inequality Source: BLS, CBO, Census

7. 7

8. 8 Strategies to Reduce Our Trade Deficit

9. 9 Oversight of Financial Markets

10. Getting away from Dysfunction Junction DOs Minimum wages ($15? $12?) Subsidized employment Apprenticeships/sectoral training In-state tuition for undoc workers (ahem…) Medicaid expansion (ahem…) Fair-chance hiring, juvenile justice reforms Infrastructure Work sharing DON’Ts RTW Kansas three-step (tax cuts, shift to sales tax, cut biz tax base) ACA, Mcaid 10

11. How to get there? Dysfunction is a tactic The cramped tax debate vs. the revenue reality (vs. sequestration) “Secular stagnation” breeds intolerance Future orientation – Electoral demographics (forcing our issues on the table) – Preferences of nonvoters vs. voters – Jobs of the future, robots?? The fever must break 11

12. 12 Bargaining Power and Opportunity

13. Jared Bernstein bernstein@cbpp.org jaredbernsteinblog.com