1. The Role of Science and Technology in Counter Terrorism Jay Davis National Security Fellow Center for Global Security Research Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory DOE/OBES Workshop Gaithersburg, February 28, 2002

2. My perspective on counter terrorism comes from career experiences n Having my own laboratory bombed when I was at Wisconsin n A basic research career in nuclear physics and in managing basic research in the broad geosciences, toxicology, nutritional science and combustion research n Applied experiences in arms control, the NEST program and as an inspector in Iraq n Three years as the founding director of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, a DoD combat support agency with counter terrorism as a major focus n Thirty years as an organization builder and strategic planner

3. Let me begin with the dilemmas of counter terrorism n There is no central ownership of this mission and it is almost no one’s first mission n The technological and the sociological quickly become combined n One is seeking resources to invest against rare events with high consequences n The ultimate customer is not one having great familiarity with the S&T community

4. What is the narrow role of science and technology in national security? n To assure that we have the weapons and knowledge to deter those with evil intent n To assure that if war, terrorism or conflict come, our doctrine, people and equipment are superior to any n To assure that we fight our battle, preferably one that the enemy does not expect, rather than their battle Note that the social sciences play a large role in these desires

5. What is the broad role of science and technology in national security? n To assure that we can anticipate and cope with surprise in any discipline n To assure that the American economy can compete on all levels and support the world’s best defense system u in both people and equipment n To explain honestly what is and is not possible in defense. Basic scientists have a large role in these matters

6. How does DoD look at solving a problem? n Is there a solution in doctrine, operations or in technology? n Who will provide the logistics and training support for a twenty year system lifetime? n How is the system, gadget or widget compatible with existing doctrine, operations or training? n Can I get promoted if I sponsor this?

7. Where in counter terrorism do S&T have the most leverage? n Deterrence n Detection n Response n Recovery n Forensics and Attribution Note that the first and last couple together -- and may offer our highest and most cost effective opportunities

8. What are the strengths of the basic S&T community? n Knowledge of the future of your fields u particularly important in the “post-nuclear” and “post-physics” world n Potentially higher credibility with the new funders and the general public n Potentially lower operational burdens than the rules and inhibitions of the national security organizations that handle classified and/or controlled materials n Cost, cost, cost

9. What are the grand technical challenges in counter terrorism? n Forensics for attribution and deterrence n Technologies for detection of agents and rapid diagnosis of infection or insult n Integration of sparse and uncertain data into predictive models for event management u this has enormous political importance n Integrated models that span dispersion to morbidity and mortality u for both low level and acute exposure u for “address-based” triage n Education on risk and risk tradeoff

10. What are the critical tests of you and your ideas? n Can you work as a subcontractor? u Anything important will be a team activity -- you are an unlikely leader n Who will deliver and sustain your technology in production and operation? u A real government agency contribution could be to select the production operational contractors n Does this product deliver incremental improvement in existing systems without excessive opportunity cost in their present configuration? u Is the first responder willing to use this?

11. What are the grand contributions you can make? n Service in a mission-driven agency u they need your perspectives and knowledge n Support to the intelligence and security communities in predicting future threats u and the capabilities to counter them n Work in the international communities to establish norms of transparency and ethics u and the penalties for failure in these n Education and support of both the local and national communities in determining what is possible u expectations management is vital

12. You might ask yourself the following questions n What new contexts do I need to master? n Where or by what extrapolation does my currently funded work or capability contribute? n What new relationships do I need? n What are my responsibilities beyond the laboratory?

13. Understand the political and operational difficulties of counter terrorism n This is no one’s first job -- except for Governor Ridge n Authority and resource needs are determined by the event u an anathema for political systems n The first responders are the most important players u and are poorly coupled to our communities n There will be no silver bullets u either technical or political However, I am optimistic because we as a nation are now fully engaged with this topic