1. HYMN Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere GOCE-CT-2006-037048 Status of TM model Michiel van Weele HYMN meeting, Brussels, 22-23 May 2007

2. TM4 standard version Global 3 x 2 (1x1 test runs); 60-25 (91-34) ECMWF layers CBM4 chemistry, incl. isoprenes No stratospheric chemistry (nudging O 3, HNO 3 and CH 4 ) Dry deposition (Ganzeveld) O 3, NO, NO 2, HNO 3, PAN, NH 3, CO, CH 2 O, RCHO, H 2 O 2, CH 3 OOH, SO 2 CH 4 concentrations or CH 4 emissions Missing H 2 as chemical tracer: Using fixed H 2 concentration of 550 ppb No soil sink Missing N 2 O sources and chemistry Extensively validated for CH 4, CO, NO X, trop. O 3 Operationally used for satellite data assimilations Recent participation in, e.g., IPCC/ACCENT RETRO QUANTIFY Royal Society tropospheric ozone 2050 study

3. TM4 runs 2003-2004 2003+2004 monthly output on HYMN ftp server; daily output also available best-guess CH 4 emissions ~550 Tg old ‘Hao’ biomass burning seasonal cycle old Edgar 2 anthropogenic emissions

4. TM4 runs 2003-2004: Methane

5. TM4 runs 2003-2004: Ozone

6. TM4 runs 2003-2004: CO

7. TM4 runs 2003-2004: OH

8. TM4 runs 2003-2004: NOx

9. TM5-ST (under development) TM-version for climate couplings: HYMN / GEMS / EC-Earth Global 3x2; Layers: 44 out of 60; 49 transported tracers Stratospheric + Tropospheric chemistry 45 photochemical,144 gas phase and 33 heterogeneous reactions Two versions: Fixed lower tropospheric concentrations (CH 4 / H 2 / N 2 O) Explicit CH 4 / H 2 / N 2 O surface emissions and deposition CH4 exchanges wetlands/soils Soil sink H 2 Natural emissions: Soils: N 2 O/CO/NO X Vegetation: CO / VOCs (isoprene + to be decided) Oceanic: CO / VOCs (to be decided) Dry deposition similar to TM4 (O 3, NO, NO 2, HNO 3, PAN, CO, CH 2 O, RCHO, H 2 O 2, CH 3 OOH, SO 2 ) Anthropogenic emissions (next slide) Chemistry CH 4 loss: OH, O( 1 D), Cl H 2 formation: J(CH 2 O); loss: OH, O( 1 D), Cl N 2 O loss: J(N 2 O), O( 1 D)

10. TM5-ST (cont.) Present key issues / further work Slow performance, mainly caused by not properly working parallel photolysis Long-term drift in stratospheric ozone (chemistry/ ERA-40 dynamics / …) Incorporation of isoprene chemistry Addition of N 2 O and H 2 emissions and H 2 soil sink Coupling with HYMN emissions: Bristol LPJ and anthropogenic emissions Fall-back option: TM5-CBM4 including isoprenes and nudging TM4 + zoom option Addition of CH 4 and N 2 O and H 2 emissions, sinks and chemistry Disadvantage: s cenario runs without stratospheric responses

11. Emission data sets for HYMN for discussion! Past (1980-2000+2000-2005): Long runs natural: Bristol LPJ Trend attribution; anthropogenic: TNO/RETRO incl. wildfires Schultz? Interannual / seasonal Missing: N2O variabilities; How to extend after 2000?Evaluation with FTIR Alternatives: EDGAR-HYDE Present-day (2003-2005): Inverse modeling; natural: Bristol LPJ Evaluation with GFED v2 (Vd Werff) biomass burning SCIAMACHY / FTIR anthropogenic: IIASA global 1x1 (Royal society)? Alternatives: IPCC/ACCENT,POET, … Future (2030 or 2050?): Scenarios H 2 economy anthropogenic IIASA global 1x1 (Royal society)? natural: Bristol LPJ (?) Alternatives: IPCC/ACCENT 2030, …

12. Time schedule (preliminary!) May – Aug 2007: Further TM5 model development Sep 2007: Decision on HYMN TM model version; - perform new spin-up, e.g., 10-20 year constant 2003? Oct – Dec 2007: 1 st set of sensitivity runs 2003-2005 time period - focus on OH and CO, NOX, VOC anthropogenic emissions for CH4? - can use new LPJ CH4 high-lat emissions? Jan – Feb 2008:Evaluation of runs - can use new SCIA and FTIR 2003-2005? Mar-Apr 2008:Coupling with full set of LPJ routines May-Jun 2008:1 st long run 1980-2005 Autumn 2008: 2 nd set of sensitivity runs for natural emissions using LPJ routines 2-3? more long runs for trend attribution 2009: Scenario runs

13. Sensitivity runs: some ideas 2003-2005: 2004 runs? Latitudinal changes in anthropogenic emissions (NOx!):  present-day anthropogenic emissions  1990 anthropogenic emissions Distribution of natural CH4 emissions  Best-guess distribution  Enhanced tropical CH4 source + reduced northern CH4 source Role of H2 for oxidising capacity / stratosphere  Best guess emissions / soil sinks  Doubling anthropogenic H 2 emissions … Long runs?  Base run, full chemistry, varying natural, anthropogenic and chemical sinks  Constant natural CH4 emissions  Constant CH4 emissions ( assume decline natural = anthropogenic increase)