1. Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty Reduction: New Methods David Canning Harvard School of Public Health November 2, 2006

2. Macro Causality: New Methods Causality from fertility, to age structure, labor supply, human capital, saving, and economic growth Methods –More case studies of family planning interventions (Ireland, Iran, China). –Policy Instruments for fertility, abortion and contraception laws and policies (micro for regression discontinuity). –Micro + Macro (cross national micro data). –Dynamic general equilibrium model – adding up the microeconomic effects

3. Interaction with policy Realizing the demographic dividend depends on the policy environment. New methods: –Better measures of policy and institutions – particularly for labor markets and savings. –Focus on unemployment /underemployment –Old issue of labor market crowding and wages. –Use of sub-national data gives more policy coherence (India, China, USA).

4. Poverty Effect of fertility on poverty Methods –Improved cross country poverty data. –use different “poverty” measure such as education Gini. –go to micro data to look at poverty.