1. EUFASOM – Inputs, Outputs, Linkage Options CCTAME – Kick-Off Meeting Uwe A. Schneider Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University Contributions from Contributors: E. Schmid, O. Franklin, C.I. Ramos, C. Schleupner, K. Jantke, R. Skalsky, J. Balkovic, P. Havlik, I. Huck, A. Moseyev, A.M.I. Kallio, M. Obersteiner, S. de Cara, B. McCarl, S. Fritz

2. Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model - FASOM Partial Equilibrium, Bottom-Up Model Partial Equilibrium, Bottom-Up Model Maximizes sum of consumer and producer surplus Maximizes sum of consumer and producer surplus Constrained by resource endowments, technologies, policies Constrained by resource endowments, technologies, policies Spatially explicit, discrete dynamic Spatially explicit, discrete dynamic Integrates environmental effects Integrates environmental effects Programmed in GAMS Programmed in GAMS

3. Land use competition

4. FASOM History US (1993) US (1993) EU (2004) EU (2004) Global (2006) Global (2006)

5. FASOM Structure Resources Land Use Technologies Processing Technologies ProductsMarkets Inputs Limits Supply Functions Limits Demand Functions, Trade Limits Environmental Impacts

6. Scientific Questions Mitigation Potential of Climate Policies? Mitigation Potential of Climate Policies? Land Management Adaptation? Land Management Adaptation? Commodity Market Impacts? Commodity Market Impacts? Environmental Side Effects? Environmental Side Effects? Social Side Effects? Social Side Effects?

7. Challenges Heterogeneity (Resources, Technologies) Heterogeneity (Resources, Technologies) Complexity (Mitigation Options, Markets, Externalities, Policies) Complexity (Mitigation Options, Markets, Externalities, Policies) Global Scope Global Scope

8. FASOM - Spatial Resolution of Input Data Soil texture Soil texture Stone content Stone content Altitude levels Altitude levels Slopes Slopes Soil state Soil state Political regions Political regions Ownership (forests) Ownership (forests) Farm types Farm types Farm size Farm size Many crop and tree species Many crop and tree species Tillage, planting irrigation, fertilization harvest regime Tillage, planting irrigation, fertilization harvest regime

9. Altitude: 1.< 300 m 2.300-600 m 3.600-1100 m 4.>1100 m Texture: 1.Coarse 2.Medium 3.Medium-fine 4.Fine 5.Very fine Soil Depth: 1.shallow 2.medium 3.deep Stoniness: 1.Low content 2.Medium content 3.High content Slope Class: 1.0-3% 2.3-6% 3.6-10% 4.10-15% 5.… Homogeneous Response Units DE13 DE12 DE11 DE14

10. EUFASOM Dynamics 5 (to 20) year time steps 5 (to 20) year time steps State of forests (and soil organic matter) State of forests (and soil organic matter) Technical progress Technical progress Demand & industry growth Demand & industry growth Resource and global change Resource and global change Policy scenarios Policy scenarios

11. EUFASOM – Input Data Resource Data Resource Data Technological Data Technological Data Market & Policy Data Market & Policy Data

12. EUFASOM Data FOREST_DATA(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) PEREN_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) CROP_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) ECO_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) LIVE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) FEED_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) PROCESS_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLTECH,ALLITEM) PRODUCT_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM) MARKET_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLITEM,SDTYPE,SDITEM) TRADE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM) RESOURCE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLRESOURCE,SDITEM) STOCK_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM) LUC_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,ALLCHANGE,ALLITEM)

13. Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.SWSawLogs 613.3046 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.SWPulpLogs 32.2792 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.AgeValue 165.5000 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.Area 2459.4700 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.Carbon 183.1328 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.TreeNumber 146.4092 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.TotalBiomass 366.2655 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.StemBiomass 245.3218 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.BranchBiomass 62.8024 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.DeadWoodmass 37.5675 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.DecompRate 0.0440 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.FinalHarvBiomass 245.3218 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.MeanTreeHarvBM 1.7540 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestLabour 24.4956 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestCost 2598.5695 Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestDiesel 1123.2615 Forest Management Data

14. FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Corn 9.4582 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Land 2959.6516 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Cost 559.7052 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.FarmLabour 61.6533 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.HiredLabour 35.7446 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Fertilizer 191.4397 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Pesticides 110.2057 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Seed 121.9582 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Fuel 51.5004 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Rent 127.1415 FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Wage 7.5052 Crop Management Data

15. EUFASOM – Output Data Resource Usage Resource Usage Land Use Distribution Land Use Distribution Market Prices, Trade Market Prices, Trade

16. EUFASOM Equations OBJECTIVE_EQU RESOURCEBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) RESOURCEMAX_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) LUC_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE) LUCLIMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE) SOILSTATE_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE) FORINVENT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH) STOCK_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,STOCK) EMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SUBSTANCE) PRODUCTBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) MINFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT) MAXFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT)

17. EUFASOM Variables FOREST_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH) PEREN_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,CROPTECH) CROP_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,CROPTECH ) ECO_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ECOTECH) RESOURCE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) LUC_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE) EMIT_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SUBSTANCE) LIVE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,LIVETECH) FEED_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,PRODUCT,FEEDTECH) PROCESS_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PROCTECH) DEMAND_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) SUPPLY_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) TRADE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT)

18. I European Agricultural Sector Results

19. 2010 EU Bioenergy Targets 21% Renewable Electricity 21% Renewable Electricity ≈ 610 thousand GWh ≈ 300 million wet tons of biomass 5.75% Bio-Fuels 5.75% Bio-Fuels

20. Biomass Crop Share for 300 Mt Target 0 25 50 75 100

21. Climate Mitigation vs. Biodiversity Protection

22. 2010 EU Biodiversity Targets 2001: European Council committed to ‘halt the decline of biodiversity by 2010’ in Europe 2001: European Council committed to ‘halt the decline of biodiversity by 2010’ in Europe 2002: EU joined about 130 countries in agreeing ‘to significantly reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010‘ worldwide 2002: EU joined about 130 countries in agreeing ‘to significantly reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010‘ worldwideBUT Biodiversity loss still accelerating Biodiversity loss still accelerating Reservation often ad hoc and uncoordinated Reservation often ad hoc and uncoordinated 2010 only three years away 2010 only three years away

23. Habitat Needs Simulations with the independent 69 species based habitat module of EUFASOM show that 10, 20, 30, 40 viable populations for each species require 22, 35, 42, and 61 million hectares, respectively, in specific locations

24. Wetland Area Share for a 40 Mha Target 0 25 50 75 100

25. Biomass Crop Share for 300 Mt Target 0 25 50 75 100

26. EU25 Bioenergy Potentials 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Marginal Biomass Costs in Euro/ton European Biomass Production in million wet tons 10 Mha 30 Mha Wetland Requirement = 40 Mha

27. Wetland Downscaling Source: Schleupner and Schneider (2008), A cost- efficient spatial wetland site-selection model for European biotope restoration, http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/ http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/

28. Link to other models Climate Models Indirect link Geographic Assessments upscaling downscaling Biophysical Models Environmental impacts Agro-Economic Models Consistency between farm level and sector level models Full Economy Models Exogenous drivers Response functions

29. II US Agricultural Sector Results Mainly based on McCarl and Schneider (2001). Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in U.S.Agriculture and Forestry. SCIENCE 294:2481-2481.

30. US Agricultural Mitigation 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0100200300400500600700800 Carbon price (Euro/tce) Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation (mmtce) Technical Potential Competitive Economic Potential

31. US Mitigation Strategy Mix 0 100 200 300 400 500 020406080100120140160180200 Carbon price ($/tce) Emission reduction (mmtce) CH4 N2O Decrease Tillage Carbon Sink Afforestation Sink Bioenergy Emission Offsets

32. US Tillage Carbon Sink 0 100 200 300 400 500 020406080100120140160 Carbon price ($/tce) Soil carbon sequestration (mmtce) Technical Potential Economic Potential Competitive Economic Potential

33. US Afforestation Sink 0 100 200 300 400 500 050100150200250300 Carbon price ($/tce) Emission reduction (mmtce) Technical Potential Economic Potential Competitive Economic Potential

34. US Bioenergy Emission Offsets 0 100 200 300 400 500 050100150200250300350 Carbon price ($/tce) Emission reduction (mmtce) Technical Potential Economic Potential Competitive Economic Potential

35. US Crop Management Impacts 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 0 100 200 300 400 500 Intensity (Base = 100%) Carbon equivalent price ($/mtce) Fertilization Tillage Irrigation

36. US Agricultural Markets 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 050100150200250300 Fisher index Carbon price ($/tce) Crop prices Livestock prices Livestock production Crop production Crop exports

37. -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 020406080100 Billion $ Carbon price ($/tce) US Welfare Changes Gross Producer Surplus Emission Payments Net Producer Surplus Consumer Surplus

38. US Environmental Co-Effects 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 050100150200250300 Pollution (%/acre) Carbon price ($/tce) N Percolation N Subsurface Flow Soil Erosion P Loss

39. Emission Leakage 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 020406080100 Fisher’s Ideal Index Carbon price ($/tce) USA Only Annex I Countries All Countries Non-Annex I crop net exports for agricultural GHG mitigation policy in: