2. Eric de Jong COO OTTO Work Force
Demographic changes in Europe and the impact on labour markets and labour migration

3. OTTO Work Force Employment offer on large scale throughout Europe
European labour market without borders
Over flex workers mainly in The Netherlands, Germany and Poland
Demographic development is our key factor

4. OTTO Work Force specialist on Labour Migration in EU since 2000
We know the market resources for our clients
We know and understand our client’s needs
15 years experience on the European Labour Market
The three components in the figure make it possible for OTTO to be specialist on Labour Migration in EU.

5. Turnover 2014/2015
The Netherlands €
Germany €
Poland €
Ukraine
€ 141
8.391
2.581
8.397
167
189 64
163 9
2.846
-----
3.708
167
€ 207 mio (2014) € 237 mio (2015)
Czech Republic
€ 158
Slovakia
€ 2.054
Hungary
€ 55
417
1.550
144
Turnover in € x
Turnover in hours x 1.000
Total recruitment hours x 1.000
Number FTE stafemployees 4 2 5 2 1
417
1.169
144 50

6. Poland Belarus Bulgaria Ukraine Romania
Labour migration
Poland Belarus Bulgaria Ukraine Romania
Denmark
France
Germany
The United Kingdom
Spain
The Netherlands
These are the general origin en destination countries for labour migration.

7. Western Europe: still growing but greying
Growth p.a
1,9%
-0,3%
-0.1%
0.2%
- 8.1 mln. People In working population
The working age population (15-64) in Western Europe will decrease in the period with 8.1 million people a decrease of 0.3% per annum
The total population will still grow in the same period with 8.4 million a growth of 0.2% p.a..
Growth of the total population is due to the growth in numbers of elderly people ( >64) of 17.3 million or by 1.9%
The number of youngsters <15 decreases by 745 thousand or -0.1%
The UK numbers show a positive exception: total population in the UK will still grow in the years by 0.5% per annum or by 5.4 million people.
Also in the UK we see greying, with an increase of 1.8% for people in the age over 64.
The working age population will still show an increase in the UK of 0.2% while most WE countries show a decrease.
The number of people below 15 years continues to increase in the UK by 0.4%
The UK numbers are the result of the huge immigration flows into the UK
The numbers for France show a positive development like the UK but more moderate
The most severe situation can be found in Germany, although the recent inflow of refugees might influence the figures for Germany
Overall we see a very modest population growth in WE of 0.2% p.a with a decrease of the working age population by 0.3% p.a . Greying continues as by % of the WE population will be over the age of 64. The UK numbers show a positive exception while Germany shows a more negative development, without taking the recent influx of refugees into account.

8. Germany: shrinking and greying
Growth p.a
1.7%
-0.9% 0%
81.9
80.7
79.3
- 0,1%
- 8.1 mln. People on the labour market
- 6.6 mln. people in working population
Germany is the exception with a decrease of the population of 1.4 million in or -0.1% p.a. and a decrease of the working age population with 0.9% p.a.or 6.5 million people.
Due to increase of the number of elderly people (>64) in the same period by 5.1 million Germany shows a rapidly greying population profile
28% will be over 64 years old by 2030
This must have serious impact on labour markets since unemployment is currently very moderate and the participation rate has increased substantially over last years.

9. CEE: shrinking and greying
127
112
111
1.5%
-1%
-0.8%
Growth p.a
-0.5%
mln. people in working population
The CEE graphs shows a dramatic picture of both a decreasing population in with 0.5% and a decrease of the working age population by 1% or 11.3 million people. We should compare this with an increase of the total population in the WE group of 0.2% and a decrease of the working age population of 0.3%. The decrease in the number of people in the working age is in the same period in the WE group 8.1 million
The overall picture for the CEE group in 2030 is more positive since the share of people over 64 years old will be 21% of the total population while in WE this number will be 25%.
The share of people in the working age will still be higher in the CEE group in 2030 with 64% while in the WE group this will be 60%.
Figures for the Ukraine have a very negative impact on the overall numbers for the CEE group. Obvious the war in the country had a severe impact on the numbers. The population will shrink by 0,6% per annum in the period or with 3.9 million people, while the decrease in the number of people in the working age of 4.8 million or 1.1% p.a. will have a negative impact on the Ukrainian economic growth potential
Compared with the other countries in the CEE group the Polish demographic development is less negative.

10. Lack of high school educated labourers puts pressure on German labour market
The demographic developments presented have a severe impact on labour markets in CEE as well as in WE.
Taking the example of Germany on the basis of Oxford Economics Talent database the pressure building up at the labour market can be shown by comparing the demand for labour and the supply of labour in the next 10 years
The supply of labour is a function of education gains, demographic changes ( adjusted for labour force participation) and net migration. The demand for labour is driven by economic growth, and shifting talent requirements within industries and the change of size of specific industries
The graph on the left hand shows the supply and demand at the overall labour market in Germany in 2015 and While in 2015 there are 6.5 million people more offering there serves than is demanded by all sectors in the economy
In 2025 this picture will have changed substantially with an oversupply of labour offered of 0.8 million people.
Looking into more detail the sharp reduction of the oversupply is due to the increase of demand for people with high school education as shown in the right part of the graph.

11. Pressure concentrated on specific sectors in Germany
The next question is where can those jobs be found in Germany in the years
Based on data from Oxford Economics most jobs will be created in the wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, other services and transportation

12. Tightening on the labour market 2015 - 2025
Between 2015 and 2015 this are the numbers of people who ‘leave’ the labour market. Pay attention: this is including unemployment. In Germany for example, 6 million people leave the labour market in this period, divided in university schooled, high schooled and the rest. Let op: dit zijn demografische factoren en er is geen rekening gehouden met andere factoren als bv. het overnemen van ons werk door robotisering etc.
In Poland we see that a lot of ‘older low schooled people’ leave the labour market. A lot of ‘young high schooled people’ join the labour market. There fore in the figure for Poland you see ‘high school’+ 0,5 mln. There are high schooled people joining the labour market. Kanttekening: in Polen zien we dat veel ‘oudere laaggeschoolde medewerkers’ uitstromen op de arbeidsmarkt. Veel ‘jonge hooggeschoolde mensen’ stromen juist in op de arbeidsmarkt. Vandaar de + 0,5 mln ‘high school’. Tel alles bij elkaar op dan stromen er 2,5 mln. Mensen in totaal uit op de arbeidsmarkt in Polen.

13. Conclusions Pressure concentrated on specific sectors in Germany1.
WE workforce is shrinking in with 8.1 million or 0.3% p.a. due to greying of the population, but the total population increases still with 0.2%. 2.
In the CEE group the workforce will be shrinking by 11.3 million people or 1% p.a., the total population will shrink with 0.5% in the same period. 3.
The loss of labourers in CEE causes shortages there at the labour markets. 4.
Labour shortages in WE, like in Germany will stimulate migration from countries in CEE. 5.
The German example shows strong demand in wholesale and retail, manufacturing, transport and services .

14. Conclusion 6. Traditional ‘east to west’ migration will remain
7. Migration inside CEE will remain as well (Ukraine to Poland)
8. Wages will increase in all regions
9. Countries should be attractive for potential labour migrants
10. Labour migrants should integrate (cultural, language)
Conclusion

15. Succesfull labour migration OTTO Work Force
Variable job offers
Offers for all age groups
Offers for Holiday workers
Short term offers
Long term offers
Offers for couples and groups
Variable levels of skills
Recruitment process
Cultural fit test
Language tests
OTTO best match
OTTO Work Students
Onboarding proces OTTO 3D Warehousetrainer
Language skills development
OTTO Academy Service Organized infastructure
Expert in managing migration proces
We deliver not only resources to our client but also help them in resulting flexibility and productivity with the immigrants. This at the end results in optimising labour costs.
OTTO Best Match: Increasing the quality of intake by new online testing methodologies Aim: To increase the quality of intake and reduce the employee turnover By: Online testing methodologies and comparison with
the Best Performers of the client’s organisation

16. Questions?