1. Security of the Ultimate High Ground Preventing Arms Race in Outer Space
Manpreet Sethi, Ph.D
Senior Fellow
Centre for Strategic and International Studies
New Delhi
WAAS, 19 Oct 2008, Hyderabad

2. Present Reality Outer space more integral to Earth than ever before
Increasing number of space assets
‘Critical’ Civilian applications
‘Vital’ Military uses, incl nuclear deterrence
Increasing number of space faring nations
Increasing inter-state commercial relations for use of outer space

3. Challenges to Space Security
National Ambitions
Doctrines of dominance & denial
BMD, ASAT & Weaponisation of space
Galloping technological developments on types of space weapons
Use of space for asymmetric warfare – space disruption easier than space control
Mistrust and lack of transparency and confidence

4. Challenges to Space Security
Lack of International Consensus
Divergent state priorities
Stalemate at CD
FMCT Vs PAROS
Lukewarm response to PPWT
Lack of focus at COPOUS

5. Challenges to Space Security
Legal Lacunae
Outpaced by technological developments
Limitations of OST, 1967
Different interpretations of ‘peaceful use’, ‘outer space’
US opposition to new legal regimes

6. Challenges to Space Security
Environmental Concerns
Generation of uncontrolled space debris
Routine space activity
Intentional destruction of satellites
Overcrowding in some key orbits
Long term impact of induction of satellites
Possibility of satellite malfunction and associated dangers to earth and atmosphere

7. Comparison with Nuclear Situation
Intentions of disarmament taken over by technological push
Status and Prestige of NW
Lack of transparency, confidence and trust in inter-state relations
Inevitability of arms race
Offence-Defence spiral
Inevitability of proliferation
“Impossible to achieve effectively verifiable and meaningful disarmament”

8. Preventing Arms Race in Outer Space
Need for collective action
Equal vulnerability of all space faring nations
Need for multilateral mechanisms to
Place limits on militarisation
Ban weaponisation
Better inter-state relations for political action
Acceptance of common code of conduct
Very difficult to stop proliferation later
Act now to ensure secure & sustainable access to & use of outer space

9. History doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme a lot – Mark Twain
As nations dilly dally
Technology continues to rally
New capabilities, new weapons
Security of mankind they threaten
‘Freedom of action’ is the basic desire
It translates into dominance and denial
Space power is the name of the game
Proliferation – we’ll get more of the same!!