1. The Relevance of Flavour Physics in the LHC Era David Hitlin Workshop on Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005

2. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 2 “ The aim of physics is to find new terms in the Hamiltonian of the universe. Everything else is chemistry.” M. Schwartz By this stringent yardstick, most of us, while we strive to do physics, wind up doing chemistry Nonetheless, flavour physics has historically been a rich source of physics, even by Mel’s criterion Does flavour physics in the LHC era meet this rigorous criterion? What are the crucial experiments in the search for new terms in the flavour Hamiltonian (New Physics)?

3. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 3 Where is flavour physics now?  The PEP-II/B A B AR and KEKB/Belle B Factories, together with CLEO c and modern K decay experiments, have brought us to the precision measurement regime for many heavy quark and heavy lepton measurements  CDF and DØ at Tevatron Run II are now producing physics and have unique capabilities in B s mixing, rare decays and b baryon studies  Bottom line: the CKM phase is consistent with being the source for all observed CP -violating phenomena There must, however, be additional sources of CP violation  Over the next few years, CP violation and rare decays in the flavour sector will be pursued with improved precision, and, equally important, with improved sophistication e.g., the best current methods for measurement of  (  2 ) and  (  1 ) were not those put forward in the initial phase

4. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 4 CP violation , the Jarlskog invariant: The Unitarity Triangle summarizes the salient features of Standard Model heavy flavour physics CP violation

5. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 5 Let me count the ways J/2J/2     There are many ways to overconstrain the Unitarity Triangle  Useful constraints from B and K decays

6. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 6 Overconstraining the Unitarity Triangle

7. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 7 CP asymmetry from the interference between mixing and decay For a single decay amplitude: |q/p|=1 If there is New Physics it could be in the decay amplitude or the mixing amplitude

8. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 8 sin2  is now a precision measurement Belle

9. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 9 Unitary Triangle 2005

10. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 10 Is there New Physics in mixing? Nir Agashe, et al.

11. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 11 B s mixing limits  New CDF/DØ results Limit14.5  16.6 ps -1 sensitivity 18.3  20.0 ps -1

12. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 12 LHCb sensitivity to mixing

13. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 13 Is there New Physics in mixing? Agashe, Papucci, Perez, Pirjol Current

14. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 14 ss

15. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 15 Constraints on New Physics  Even at current precision, the grosso modo agreement of flavour physics experimental results with Standard Model predictions places very meaningful limits on physics beyond the Standard Model  In the presence of New Physics, many of these simple relations can be modified  This has spawned a minor phenomenological industry that has provided guidance for the current experiments and a roadmap for future investigations Where to look for New Physics?  FCNC processes  b → s vertices:  F =1,  F =2 CP violation, mixing, rare b and  decays  Precision measurements in K, D and B decays

16. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 16 The LHC era begins  What will remain to be done in flavour physics when the current programs at B A B AR, Belle, CDF and DØ are over? Overconstrained tests of the CKM matrix to the level of precision warrented by theoretical uncertainties Searches, and, quite likely, measurements of deviations from the Standard Model that will be crucial to an understanding of New Physics uncovered at the LHC  What facilities will we have? LHC: ATLAS, CMS, LHC b Linear collider (ILC/CLIC)? A Super B Factory? Rare kaon experiments?  /charm collider Fixed target charm experiment?  Which facilities beyond the LHC are most crucial to flavour studies?

17. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 17 2003 2005 2005 2005 2006-2008 XXXX An Endangered Species Act for heavy quarks in the US?

18. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 18 Data samples ( b ) at the start* of the LHC era  B A B AR and Belle will each have collected a total data sample of approximately 1 ab -1 by ~2008 2 ab -1 = 2 x 10 9 produced pairs  The Tevatron Run II experiments CDF and DØ will each have collected 4-8 fb -1 by ~2009 Premier objective is a measurement of mixing

19. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 19 How can flavour physics complement the LHC program?  The Higgs will likely come first  The search for evidence of physics beyond the Standard Model will then take center stage There have been many exercises showing how, with sufficiently large data samples and concomitant improved precision, heavy quark and  measurements can uniquely discriminate between SUSY breaking models, extra dimension scenarios, etc. These need sharpening, on both sides: high p t and flavour physics  It is possible that the LHC will find the Standard Model Higgs and nothing else In this situation, precision flavour physics may be the best way we have to search for physics beyond the Standard Model

20. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 20 Strategies  Improve measurements of CKM unitarity triangle measurements to the precision warrented by theory CP asymmetries in tree-dominated processes Differences in CP asymmetries between tree and penguin- dominated processes  Search for/measure FCNC processes, highly suppressed in the Standard Model, in which New Physics may show up Generation 3 to generation 2 (b → s,  →  ) transitions are especially promising  B s oscillations  b → s  branching fraction, A CP  A FB (b → s + - )  B s →  +  -

21. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 21 Precision of  sin2  in this decade  Through ~2008 (and beyond), precision of UT angle measurements will continue to be statistics limited   methods shown run into model problems at 2 ab -1 level With higher statistics, other methods may be better e.g. for , use B→  + isospin analysis instead of B→  LHCb (1 year @ 2 x 10 32 ) ( Schneider )  (  ) = 10 o  (  ) = 5 o  (sin2  ) = 0.02 B A B AR

22. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 22 Global CKM fit: 2008

23. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 23 What is the ultimate possible UT precision?  Theoretical limits (continuum methods) Many measurements will not be theory-limited for quite some time Ligeti:

24. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 24 Ultimate UT precision - II Okamoto “Ultimate” precision Current precision  Unitarity triangle using unquenched lattice results

25. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 25 Ultimate UT precision - III // // // // // //  Prediction for SuperKEKB at 50 ab -1 (~2020)  LHCb measurements will also be pertinent (or, they may be the only measurements)  Rare K decay constraints

26. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 26  The real motivation for precision measurements of rare K decay branching fractions is the sensitivity to New Physics  The same is true for high precision B and  decay studies

27. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 27  LHC, by the mass difference and threshold methods, will measure SUSY masses to a precision of 5 to 10 GeV  ILC or CLIC, a decade later, will dramatically improve errors, by, e.g., measuring slepton masses with a threshold scan to a precision ~100 MeV with 10 fb-1 per point  In the meantime it is important to clarify the flavour structure of New Physics discoveries with high statistics K, B and  experiments  These studies can uniquely discriminate between SUSY models After the LHC finds New Physics Correlations allow model discrimination (without ILC)

28. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 28 Many SM extensions yield measurable effects in B physics Little Higgs w MFV UV fix Extra dim w SM on brane Supersoft SUSY breaking Dirac gauginos SM-like B physics New Physics in B data Generic Little Higgs Generic extra dim w SM in bulk SUSY GUTs Effective SUSY after G. Hiller MSSM MFV large tan  MSSM MFV small tan 

29. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 29 Heavy flavour studies complement LHC direct searches

30. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 30 Experimental signatures of extended flavour structure  FCNC processes, LFV processes and CPV in loop decays  There are many clean measurements that are diagnostic of models New CP violating phase in b  sqq : CPV(t) in B 0   K s, ’ K s, K s K s K s Right-handed current in b  s  : CPV(t) in B 0  K s  0  Lepton flavour violation in  decays : B (     ) Charged Higgs in tree diagram : B ( B  D  )/ B ( B  D  ) b  d , A FB in b  s +  -, B  K*, B , ……… B s mixing Some measurements are unique to hadron experiments, some to e + e -, and some can be done in both environments

31. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 31 Many rare processes are sensitive to New Physics ModeStandard Model Branching Fraction B New Physics Effects b→s  ~ 3 x 10 -4 B, A CP, A FB b→sg ~ 10 -5 per modeA CP B→X ~10 -6 per mode B, A CP, A FB B→X ~10 -6 per mode B up to 10 -5 /mode D→X ~10 -6 per mode B up to 10 -5 /mode B→  ~ 10 -4 Close to SM sensitivity  →  ~ 10 -40 B up to 10 -8 B→ < 10 -11 B up to 10 -5 D→ < 10 -9 B up to 10 -6 The observed pattern of effects is diagnostic of the mechanism of SUSY breaking or the type of extra dimension model

32. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 32 Flavour physics provides a roadmap New CPV or flavour violation? Only in LH currents? Only in 3 rd generation? Only in RH currents? Chirality flipping? NMFV  F=1,2 correlations? SM MFV Deviation from SM? Perez No Yes Standard Model flavour structure: No right-handed couplings One CP-violating phase Small quark mixing Flavour physics already strongly restricts SUSY K physics Hg EDM B physics

33. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 33 What can a Super B Factory bring to the party?  Flavour physics, whether b, c or  decays, provides Sensitivity to New Physics (SUSY, extra dimensions, ……)  New CP phases, non-Standard Wilson coefficients, …… Strong and unique constraints on models of SUSY breaking   ( b  s  ) has already ruled out a host of New Physics models Super B specific measurements  CPV in b  s  FCNC (K, K  …...)  LFV (  decays )  Higgs mediation (B   B  D  etc.)  Precision CKM Unitarity Triangle parameters Measure  V ub, V cb,  m d to the limit of theoretical precision (see above) There is, of course, some overlap with LHCb

34. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 34 Probes of new physics  In the Standard Model we expect the same value for “sin2  ” in “ modes, but different SUSY models can produce different asymmetries  Since the penguin modes have branching fractions one or two orders of magnitude less than tree modes, great deal of luminosity is required to make these measurements to meaningful precision In general S J/  K s  S  K s ; C J/  K s  C  K s

35. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 35 There are penguin and tree corrections to modes   440 Issues: triggering, charged/neutral vertexing, …. mode B x 10 -6 4 29 20

36. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 36 There is as yet no evidence for New Physics from CP asymmetry measurements in b→s transitions Kirkby and Nir, PDG As we press the search, we must understand The required and achievable experimental precision The reliability of theoretical calculations

37. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 37 How good are the SM predictions? Two body: Beneke, PLB 620 (2005) 143 Three body: Cheng, Chua & Soni, hep-ph/0506268 Calculations within framework of QCD factorization

38. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 38 squark mass matrix ( d sector) Flavour structure: SuperB, LHCb Mass spectrum: LHC, LC Off diagonal terms can provide unique information on CP phases Flavour mixing parametrization b  s (23), b  d (13)

39. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 39 The scale of New Physics  Mass insertion approximation: model-independent (  LL,RR )  K S (now) after Ciuchini, Franco, Martinelli, Masiero, & Silvestrini  23 mass insertion  13 mass insertion  A CP (J/  K S -  0 K S )  A CP (J/  K S -  K S )  K S 50 ab -1

40. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 40 How much integrated luminosity ? assuming present WA 50 ab -1 is required for CP asymmetry measurements in rare penguin modes and for rare branching fractions

41. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 41 New Physics effects in the MMSM/THDM b→sg penguins b → s  penguins Z, B,D →, B→B→ W+,W+, H+H+ h0h0   u ,, s,u B,D → X us,X us W+,W+, H+H+ W+,W+, H+H+ W+,W+, H+H+  →     ~ ~ LFV

42. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 42 Time dependent CP asymmetry in B →X s   Theoretically clean, but A CP is very small in the Standard Model, since the photon is polarized, and the final state is almost flavor specific  Helicity suppresion: ~ m s /m b  Requires vertex reconstruction with K S alone C7C7 mbmb mbmb msms msms     K S trajectory luminous region B vertex   SuperKEKB study:  (A CP mix ( B → K*   K*  K S  0 ) ) = 0.04  (A CP dir ( B → X s  ) ) = 0.005 for 50 ab -1 0.005 50ab -1

43. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 43 Asymmetric B factories provide a uniquely clean environment  High (30%) and well-measured flavour-tagging efficiency  B decays with neutrinos B  D , , u, ……  B decays with   B  X s ,       B vertex reconstruction with alone B   ,    , ……  trajectory luminous region B vertex    (4S) e - 9(8) GeV e + 3.1(3.5) GeV B B  D  X s  Charged Higgs V ub direct CPV  2 ) isospin analysis Coherent production: reconstructing one B meson yields the four-momentum of the recoiling B – a “B beam” Coherent production: reconstructing one B meson yields the four-momentum of the recoiling B – a “B beam” 

44. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 44 A CP mix in four SUSY models mSUGRA tan  =30 U(2) tan  =30 degenerate Mixing CPV A CP mix 50ab -1 Goto, Okada, Shimizu, Shindou, Tanaka SU(5)+ R tan  =30 non- degenerate Direct CPV A CP dir SU(5)+ R tan  =30 mSUGRA tan  =30 U(2) tan  =30 degenerate non- degenerate

45. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 45  Uniquely sensive tests of Wilson coefficients

46. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 46  Exclusive decays affected by larger uncertainties  Inclusive decays are better: only in e + e -  Use of ratios: AFB, ACP, e + e - /  +  -

47. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 47  SuperB  LHCb Belle Toy MC with 5 ab -1 C 10 NP C 9 NP B(B  Xsll) with140 fb -1 + 100 fb -1 A FB K*ll with 5/ab Precision of location of the zero crossing @ 5ab -1 @ 50ab-1  C 9 ~ 11%  C 10 ~14%  q 0 2 /q 0 2 ~11% ~5%

48. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 48  Extra dimension models Randall-Sundrum example (Rizzo)  Zero crossing moves with mass of lightest KK graviton 600 GeV 1000 GeV

49. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 49 (More) model-independent analysis of NP couplings New Physics scalar and pseudoscalar couplings can result in a difference in R K,K*,x s = B (B  (K, K*, x s )e + e - ) B (B  (K, K*, x s )  +  - ) from unity R K,K*,x s is correlated with the (unobserved) rate B (B s  +  - ) Hiller and Krüger

50. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 50 (More) model-independent analysis of NP couplings Koppenburg New Physics scalar and pseudoscalar couplings can result in a difference in R K,K*,x s = B (B  (K, K*, x s )e + e - ) B (B  (K, K*, x s )  +  - ) from unity R K,K*,x s is correlated with the (unobserved) rate B (B s  +  - ) Hiller and Krüger BABAR +Belle CDF RKRK

51. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 51 Prospects  R K can be measured very well at a Super B factory  It would appear to be difficult at LHCb due to difficulty with triggering on electrons, but a new study indicates that if the trigger can be modified, there is good sensitivity  A 10% measurement of R K is possible with 2.5 ab -1 at a Super B factory or with 2 fb -1 at LHCb with an electron trigger Koppenburg

52. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 52 Rare B decays: Excluded!  Standard Model B ~ 3.5 x 10 -9 Current limit (CDF+DØ) < 1.5 x 10 -7 @ 95% CL  Should be observed at LHC

53. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 53 B→B→ Energy in addition to signal candidate (GeV) u  W W+W+,H + 90% Upper Limit on

54. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 54 B →  limit on H + mass 95% CL excluded region at 5ab -1 (if  obs =  SM ) tan  /m H rHrH Iijima

55. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 55  Standard Model:  = 8 x 10 -3  For 50 ab -1 :   /  =2.5% c b  H/WH/W  B + → 0   SuperKEKB

56. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 56    and mSUGRA tan  =55 Inverted hierarchy s-  is LSP allowed Br(   e  )<1x10 -8 2x10 -8 5x10 -8 11x10 -8 Current BABAR limit

57. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 57 The pattern of deviation from the SM values is diagnostic Model B d Unitarity Time-dep. CPV Rare B decay Other signals mSUGRA (moderate tan  ) ---- mSUGRA (large tan  ) B d mixing - B → (D)*  b → s + − B s →  B s mixing SUSY GUT with R - B →  K S B → K ∗  - B s mixing  LFV, n EDM Effective SUSY B d mixing B →  K S A CP (b→s  ) b → s + − B s mixing KK graviton exchange-- b → s + − - Split fermions in large extra dimensions B d mixing - b → s + − mixing Bulk fermions in warped extra dimensions B d mixing B →  K S b → s + − B s mixing mixing Universal extra dimensions -- b → s + − b → s   → 

58. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 58 Flavour physics is a DNA chip for New Physics

59. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 59 The role of hadronic experiments  Measure and  Search for LFV in  to e conversion,  →e   Measure B s mixing  Measure CPV in J/   Measure  (B s →  at SM level or above  Measure A FB in exclusive b→s  Measure  (B →Kee )/  (B →K  ) ?  Improve measurements of 

60. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 60 The role of a Super B Factory (if one exists)  Measure  V ub, V cb,  m d to the limit of theoretical precision  Measure CPV in b→sss decays to sufficient precision to ascertain a pattern  Measure A FB in inclusive and exclusive b→s decays  Measure  (B →Kee )/  (B →K  )  Measure B→   Search for right handed couplings in b→s   Search for NP effects in B → VV decay  Search for CPV in b→s   and b→s decays  Search for LFV:  →  decay  Search for charged Higgs in B→D   decay

61. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 61 Will there be a Super B Factory?  Potential upgrades of PEP-II, KEKB SuperPEP-II design aimed at  =7 x 10 35  SLAC is now out of the local HEP accelerator business SuperKEKB design has  =4 x 10 35 with 50 ab -1 by 2020  Proposed to ministry; awaits a decision  Another approach is being considered Raimondi has suggested revisiting the recirculating linear collider scheme proposed in the ’80’s by Amaldi and Coignet, in the light of modern accelerator physics techniques The luminosity goal is  ~10 36 The idea appears quite promising  Linear collider-related R&D over the past two decades has addressed many of the technical issues INFN is actively considering an LCSuperB based on an international collaborative effort A workshop will be held on Nov 11/12 at Frascati http://www.lnf.infn.it/conference/superbf05/

62. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 62 One and one half Super B Factory concepts Conceptual design (Raimondi, Biagini, Seeman,...)

63. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 63 Conclusions  Heavy flavour physics, in all its guises, can play a significant role in deepening our understanding of the Standard Model, and, should New Physics be found at LHC, it provides unique tools for probing the flavour structure of the new particles (squarks?)  If the scale of New Physics is < 1 TeV, as motivated by our current understanding of the Higgs mechanism, there will be measurable effects in the heavy quark/heavy lepton sector LHC will yield information on masses and couplings of new particles by direct production Information on squark off-diagonal couplings requires detailed studies of heavy quark decays at Super B Factories or dedicated hadronic experiments  The effects of new physics loops can be seen in rare decay branching fractions and kinematic distributions and in CP -violating asymmetries in channels with very small branching fractions

64. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 64 Conclusions - II  The new generation of experiments at hadronic accelerators will doubtless extend the fruitful programs of the current B Factories  It is important that other approaches be followed as well: A Super B Factory can, in the next decade, provide unique high precision measurements as well as results complementary to those of hadronic experiments Rare K decay experiments Searches for lepton flavor violation  Flavour physics has a glorious history and remains relevant as a tool for understanding New Physics at the LHC  This timely series of workshops can sharpen our understanding of what is needed at LHC and at other facilities to deeply probe the structure of New Physics, in particular the flavour structure

65. David Hitlin Flavour in the Era of the LHC CERN November 10, 2005 65