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June 16, 2005 1 Is it different this time? Naveen Bobba Bear Stearns & Co (212) 272-4237 BEAR STEARNS.

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Presentation on theme: "June 16, 2005 1 Is it different this time? Naveen Bobba Bear Stearns & Co (212) 272-4237 BEAR STEARNS."— Presentation transcript:

1 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 1 Is it different this time? Naveen Bobba Bear Stearns & Co (212) 272-4237 nbobba@bear.com BEAR STEARNS

2 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 2 Cyclical Profit Swings

3 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 3 Cyclical Profit Swings

4 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 4 Lose / Gain The Formula

5 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 5 Commodity

6 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 6 Commodity

7 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 7 Commodity

8 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 8 Commodity

9 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 9 Commodity Dell: All else equal, about $300 million in higher revenues gets a $0.01 upside. –Seagate: In March qtr. 2005, $115 million in revenue upside let to EPS $0.14 higher than initial targets. Does Anybody have a competitive advantage?

10 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 10 Intel - AMD

11 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 11 Maxtor, Seagate, Western Digital

12 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 12 Maxtor, Seagate, Western Digital Is it in Seagate’s interest for the industry to be healthy? Can you kill one of the hard drive companies?

13 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 13 Things that matter…or do they really? Vertical Integration

14 June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 14 Is it different?


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