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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 1 Is it different this time? Naveen Bobba Bear Stearns & Co (212) 272-4237 nbobba@bear.com BEAR STEARNS
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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 2 Cyclical Profit Swings
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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 3 Cyclical Profit Swings
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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 4 Lose / Gain The Formula
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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 5 Commodity
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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 6 Commodity
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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 7 Commodity
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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 8 Commodity
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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 9 Commodity Dell: All else equal, about $300 million in higher revenues gets a $0.01 upside. –Seagate: In March qtr. 2005, $115 million in revenue upside let to EPS $0.14 higher than initial targets. Does Anybody have a competitive advantage?
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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 10 Intel - AMD
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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 11 Maxtor, Seagate, Western Digital
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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 12 Maxtor, Seagate, Western Digital Is it in Seagate’s interest for the industry to be healthy? Can you kill one of the hard drive companies?
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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 13 Things that matter…or do they really? Vertical Integration
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June 16, 2005 www.bearstearns.com 14 Is it different?
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